Bonn Climate Change Conference

Setting a new goal for climate finance from developed nations to developing nations will be a key task at COP29 later this year.

At the conference in Bonn, countries are tasked with reaching agreements that will serve the negotiations at the UN climate conference in Azerbaijan. It will help to narrow down what the climate finance goal could look like post-2025 and intermediary goals for spending on things like mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage. It will also help determine what form this finance takes - grants or loans.

We estimate that renewables are on course to generate 66% of EU electricity by 2030. This is a rapid and significant increase on the level in 2023 (44%) but falls short of the 72% REPowerEU target.

We need to see higher renewable contributions within member states' national plans, matched with faster permitting with quality for the deployment of wind and solar, along with the expansion of the EU's grid network in an inclusive and nature-positive manner.

The proposal to triple renewable energy capacity was signed by 118 countries under the so-called Global Pledge in Dubai.

“With these goals we are providing them [industries and investors] with clarity and predictability about the future… They will know how much additional capacity we need by 2030 and this will help them plan their business and investments,” European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said at the COP28.

Thirteen EU countries have backed the idea of further accelerating the deployment of renewable energy in a position paper published after the Commission communication on the 2040 climate target in February.

Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain said such feat will be a “key task” for the next Commission as well as to ensure a robust energy system integration to make the energy system fit for integrating the projected amounts of renewable energy sources.

Countries need to accelerate implementation and move their ambitions higher to align with the tripling goal in yet another effort to limit global warming to 1.5°C as set out in the Paris Agreement.

The amount of renewable energy capacity added worldwide has tripled since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.

Many countries have turned to solar and wind following a sharp drop in cost, along with efforts by governments to lower emissions and strengthen their energy systems. The cost of solar and wind technology has dropped by 40% since 2015, making them more competitive with fossil fuels.

This report makes clear that the tripling target is ambitious but achievable – though only if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action… By delivering on the goals agreed at COP28 countries worldwide have a major opportunity to accelerate progress towards a more secure energy system.

Goal to triple renewable power by 2030 is achievable but countries need to put more effort on implementing energy and climate pledges, the International Energy Agency said.

Countries are not on track to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, despite their national energy and climate pledges, an analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns today (June 4).

Official commitments in national energy and climate plans currently amount to 1300 gigawatts, IEA stated, only 12% of the goal set at COP28 of tripling capacity. If countries  implemented all their pledged ambitions for 2030 however, that would amount to 11,000 gigawatts of installed global renewable capacity.

This is led by European countries, the report stated, which contribute a fifth of the pledged global total — the second highest contributor after China. Germany alone makes up a quarter of Europe’s ambition on renewable capacity, followed by France, Italy, Spain and the UK, which together contribute another third. 

Following the first Global Stocktake (GST) which measured collective progress towards Paris Agreement goals, this is an opportunity to work out what a good NDC looks like. Bonn provides an opportunity to interpret the outcome of the GST in a way that puts the world on track to limit global warming to 1.5C.

It’s also a chance for ambitious, early movers to get ahead, deliver their NDCs early, and help accelerate the global shift to renewable energy.

The EU is one of these potentially ambitious early movers as it discusses its next 2040 emissions reduction target. But, currently lacking a clear way forward and with European Elections imminent, it remains to be seen what progress the bloc can make at the conference in Bonn.

The most potent weapon - Geoengineering

The most potent weapon against the EU may be the weather. How the next phase of Moscow's energy war plays out in large part depends on something no politician or scientists can control — the weather. Hmm... It's time to prepare for technologies that manipulate the climate.

Sticks of silver iodide are fired into the atmosphere to produce precipitation. Tiny particles are suspended in the stratosphere to block the sun's rays. Massive filters and underground pumps can siphon carbon from the air.

Geoengineering, the intentional manipulation of the climate, is quickly emerging as a tool to address global warming. Even though these technologies could have world-altering consequences, there is no international agreement or enforcement mechanism that directly addresses geoengineering. Without regulation, it would only take one country—watching its crops shrivel or its water run dry—taking a chance to set a global climate experiment in motion, potentially leading to conflict. And then, there’s the Russian Federation. Geoengineering ideas have a long history in Russia—and now, they appear to be moving to the next scientific level.

Although so far it has received little or no attention, the journal Russian Meteorology and Hydrology recently published a new kind of geoengineering study whose lead author is the journal’s editor, the prominent Russian scientist Yuri A. Izrael. Known for his opposition to the Kyoto Protocol, his skepticism of human-caused global warming, and his enthusiasm for geoengineering, Izrael also happens to be a top scientific adviser to Vladimir Putin. And now, his paper reports on what is probably the very first geoengineering field trial. Izrael and his team of scientists mounted aerosol generators on a helicopter and a car chassis and proceeded to blast out particles at ground level and at heights of up to 200 meters. Then they attempted to measure just how much sunlight reaching the earth was reduced due to the aerosol plume.

This small-scale intervention was effective, the Russian scientists say. And in an accompanying article on geoengineering alternatives, Izrael and colleagues note that “Already in the near future, the technological possibilities of a full-scale use of [aerosol-based geoengineering] will be studied.”

Up until now, scientists have largely studied the possibilities of geoengineering in relatively unthreatening computer models—not out in nature itself. They’ve just run a series of simulations to try to assess likely impacts. In this context, the apparent trajectory of Russian research sounds like something quite new. And it may prompt increasing calls for regulation of geoengineering interventions, even at the small-scale research level where environmental consequences would be relatively minimal.

 The time to establish international agreements on geoengineering is now, while the risks are still theoretical. In particular, any further devastating climate impacts, particularly to vulnerable low-lying developing countries, may draw new calls for geoengineering research or interventions. And given the current state of deliberations in Copenhagen, that’s the scariest thing of all. 

More info: https://map.geoengineeringmonitor.org/

Geoengineering is the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s natural systems to counteract climate change.

There is a wide range of proposed geoengineering techniques. Generally, these can be grouped into two categories:

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) or Solar Geoengineering

SRM techniques aim to reflect a small proportion of the Sun’s energy back into space, counteracting the temperature rise caused by increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which absorb energy and raise temperatures. Some proposed techniques include:

Albedo enhancement. Increasing the reflectiveness of clouds or the land surface so that more of the Sun’s heat is reflected back into space.

Space reflectors. Blocking a small proportion of sunlight before it reaches the Earth.

Stratospheric aerosols. Introducing small, reflective particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect some sunlight before it reaches the surface of the Earth.

Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR)  or Carbon Geoengineering

GGR techniques aim to remove carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, directly countering the increased greenhouse effect and ocean acidification. These techniques would have to be implemented on a global scale to have a significant impact on greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.  Some proposed techniques include:

Afforestation.  Engaging in a global-scale tree planting effort.

Biochar.  'Charring' biomass and burying it so that its carbon is locked up in the soil.

Bio-energy with carbon capture and sequestration.  Growing biomass, burning it to create energy, and capturing and sequestering the carbon dioxide created in the process.

Ambient Air Capture.  Building large machines that can remove carbon dioxide directly from ambient air and store it elsewhere.

Ocean Fertilisation.  Adding nutrients to the ocean in selected locations increases primary production which draws down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Enhanced Weathering.  Exposing large quantities of minerals that will react with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and storing the resulting compound in the ocean or soil.

Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement.  Grinding up, dispersing, and dissolving rocks such as limestone, silicates, or calcium hydroxide in the ocean increases its ability to store carbon and directly ameliorate ocean acidification.