Happy Croatian Statehood Day!

 

Happy Croatian Statehood Day!

Today, as we mark the thirty-sixth anniversary of Croatian statehood, it is fitting to remember those who believed for decades that Croatia had the right to exist as an independent country. Many of them paid a heavy price, imprisoned, professionally destroyed, socially ostracized, or, in the early 1990s, gave their lives for that idea. For the vast majority of Croatian citizens, the creation of an independent state represented the fulfillment of a deep historical aspiration, regardless of later political disagreements.
However, Statehood Day also serves as a reminder that not all citizens have ever shared this sentiment. Franjo Tuđman, the father of Croatian independence, once estimated that 15 to 20 percent of the population was fundamentally opposed to the idea of a sovereign Croatian state. Although that percentage has decreased over time, a certain unease ,even hostility, toward Croatian statehood has not disappeared. It has merely changed its language and public expression.

In contemporary Croatia, a strange inversion persists: open contempt for the state and its symbols is often rewarded with prestige in intellectual and media circles. Some writers, journalists, and public intellectuals have never truly accepted the Croatian state as a legitimate and positive historical reality. Instead, they treat it with persistent skepticism, discomfort, or thinly veiled disdain, all while positioning themselves as morally and intellectually elevated precisely because of that stance.
This phenomenon is not unique to Croatia, but it remains particularly striking here: in a country that had to fight for its very existence, some still view its success not as a victory, but as something to be subtly undermined.

May this day remind us of the courage, sacrifices, and determination of those who fought for Croatia's right to exist as a free and independent nation. After decades of dreaming and struggling, the establishment of the modern Croatian state remains one of the most significant achievements in our history.
Here's to a stronger, prouder, and more united Croatia, one that honors its defenders, respects its symbols, and continues building on the foundations laid in 1990.

Živjela Hrvatska! ✨

The Apparent Paradox / High Gas Prices in America Amid Record Oil Exports

 

People in the USA cannot afford to fill their vehicles up, but at the same time, at least 121 EMPTY OIL TANKERS are making their way to the United States of America right now.

The empty tankers are heading to the USA to load crude oil for export to global markets, which are facing shortages due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The USA is the world's gas station now! Someone needs to explain why gas prices are so high for USA citizens, paying almost $4-$6 a gallon at the pump?

Ovo je klasičan primjer energetskog realizma. Američka Shale Revolucija dala je SAD-u stratešku prednost i status najvećeg izvoznika, što je u ovakvim geopolitičkim krizama izuzetno važno. 

Dugoročno, veća domaća proizvodnja, ulaganja u rafinerije i brže izdavanje dozvola pomažu ponudi. Međutim, nemoguće je potpuno se odvojiti od globalnog tržišta bez velikih subvencija, cjenovnih kontrola, koje dovode do nestašica, ili autarkije.

Visoke cijene istodobno potiču razvoj alternativa, električna vozila, nuklearna energija, veća energetska učinkovitost, i jasno signaliziraju geopolitičke rizike opskrbe. Porast broja tankera pokazuje američku energetsku dominaciju, ali ne čini benzin jeftinijim za američke građane dok ostatak svijeta podiže cijenu barela. Tržište se jednostavno poravnavalo na višoj razini zbog realnih poremećaja ponude.

Danas je Američka Shale Revolucija i dalje glavni motor američke naftne proizvodnje. Permijanski bazen sam proizvodi više nafte nego većina zemalja OPEC-a. Zahvaljujući njoj, SAD mogu brzo reagirati na globalne poremećaje, kao što je sadašnja situacija s Hormuzom, i postati „benzinska postaja svijeta“, kako je rekao Trump.

Američka Shale Revolucija primjer je kako tehnološka inovacija može dramatično promijeniti energetsku, ekonomsku i geopolitičku sliku svijeta u samo 15-ak godina.

The World’s Gas Station – But Americans Can’t Afford to Fill Up

In an era of geopolitical tension, a striking scene unfolds: at least 121 empty oil tankers steam toward the United States to load American crude for export to global markets desperate for supply after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, many American drivers struggle to afford filling their tanks, with national average gasoline prices hovering around $4.35–$4.50 per gallon in May 2026, and exceeding $6 in California. Critics point to this as evidence of misplaced priorities, while supporters hail it as proof that the U.S. has become “the world’s gas station.” This situation is not a contradiction but a textbook example of energy realism in a globally interconnected oil market. It underscores the transformative power of the American Shale Revolution and the limits of energy independence in a fungible commodity world.

The roots of America’s current position lie in the Shale Revolution, a technological breakthrough that began in the mid-2000s and accelerated in the 2010s. By combining horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”), engineers unlocked vast reserves of oil and natural gas trapped in tight shale rock formations. Fields such as the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota, and the Eagle Ford became powerhouses of production. Within little more than a decade, the United States went from being a declining producer heavily reliant on imports to the world’s top oil and gas producer, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia.

This revolution delivered profound strategic benefits. The U.S. achieved net exporter status for petroleum products around 2019–2020. Domestic production cushioned the economy against foreign supply shocks, improved the trade balance, created hundreds of thousands of jobs, and enhanced geopolitical leverage. No longer could OPEC or Middle Eastern instability easily blackmail American foreign policy through energy threats. In the current crisis involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global oil — the world is turning to American supplies. U.S. crude exports have surged to record levels exceeding 5 million barrels per day, with the Permian Basin alone producing more oil than most OPEC nations.

Yet for ordinary citizens at the pump, the benefits feel abstract. Oil is a global fungible commodity. A barrel produced in Texas is chemically similar to one from anywhere else and sells into a single world market priced by Brent or WTI benchmarks. When disruptions spike global prices — as seen with the Hormuz situation driving crude toward or above $100 — American refiners must compete with international buyers. Domestic producers naturally sell where prices are highest, and there is no practical mechanism to wall off cheap oil exclusively for U.S. consumers without causing market distortions, shortages, or massive subsidies.

High Gas Prices Amid Record Exports: The Hard Truth of Energy Realism

Additional domestic factors compound the pain: refining capacity constraints, regional specifications (especially California’s), taxes, distribution costs, and seasonal maintenance. Exports benefit producers, shareholders, workers in energy states, and the broader economy through tax revenues and a stronger dollar, but they do not insulate consumers from the marginal global price. High prices are the market’s way of signaling scarcity and incentivizing new supply — precisely what has allowed the U.S. to ramp up exports so rapidly.

This dynamic reflects energy realism. Complete autarky is unrealistic and undesirable in a modern economy. Price controls or export bans historically lead to shortages and black markets. Instead, the Shale Revolution offers a better path: an abundant supply that strengthens national resilience. The surge of tankers heading to U.S. ports demonstrates American energy dominance. In times of global crisis, the U.S. can step in as a reliable supplier, earning economic and strategic dividends while allies and neutral nations avoid worse disruptions.

Long-term, the solution lies in expanding supply and diversity. Faster permitting, investment in refining infrastructure, and continued technological innovation in shale and beyond can increase domestic availability. High prices themselves accelerate the transition toward alternatives: electric vehicles, greater energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewables where economically viable. They also highlight the enduring geopolitical risks of oil dependence, encouraging smarter policy focused on all-of-the-above energy strategies rather than ideological extremes.

The Shale Revolution stands as one of the most significant technological and economic achievements of the 21st century. In roughly 15 years, it reshaped not only America’s energy landscape but global geopolitics. The sight of dozens of supertankers converging on U.S. Gulf ports is a powerful symbol of that success. It does not eliminate the immediate pain at the pump, but it positions the United States far better than in previous oil crises, when the country was a vulnerable importer.

Empty Tankers, Expensive Pumps: The Shale Paradox in America

In the end, energy markets reward realism over rhetoric. The U.S. cannot fully escape global price signals, but thanks to shale innovation, it now shapes those signals more than it suffers from them. The challenge for policymakers is to harness this strength — boosting production, modernizing infrastructure, and fostering competition — so that American consumers ultimately share more fully in the nation’s energy abundance.

The Line is Dead. Long Live the Pipe?

While the world was staring at the mirrored walls of a 170-kilometer sci-fi dream, a more grounded reality was unfolding in the Saudi desert. The 'autopsy' of The Line reveals a project that may have served as the ultimate masterclass in global misdirection. But as the dust settles on the 'Big Ditch,' a vital question emerges: Is the Kingdom’s true future built on vertical cities, or on the invisible, high-capacity pipelines that secure its water, energy, and survival in an increasingly volatile region?

Saudi Arabia quietly cancelled The Line. No announcement. No press release. Just a brutal internal decision that carved up a trillion-dollar dream and distributed its corpse across the Kingdom.

While the world was captivated by the $8.8 trillion "pipe dream," the project appears to have functioned as a masterclass in global misdirection.

After months of investigating NEOM, we can finally reveal what really happened. The 170-kilometer vision? Dead. The $8.8 TRILLION price tag? Real. The magic trick MBS pulled on the entire world? Bigger than anyone imagined. Using leaked documents, PIF audits, and on-site investigations, we expose how MBS staged the greatest misdirection in construction history. While the world was distracted by mirror walls and sci-fi aesthetics, the reality was crumbling.

Strategic Pivots in Vision 2030: Why Infrastructure Utility Outweighs Architectural Grandeur

The scale of ambition within Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is undeniable. However, as global markets and engineering realities shift, so must the priorities of large-scale developments. Recent reports suggesting a scale-back of "The Line" at NEOM offer a crucial moment for reflection on what a desert nation truly needs to thrive in the 21st century.

While "The Line" captured the world’s imagination as a marvel of speculative architecture, many industry experts are now pointing toward a more pragmatic path: the transition from "Mirror Walls" to Strategic Pipelines.

The Case for Infrastructure over Iconography

A project of The Line's magnitude faces unprecedented logistical hurdles. However, if the Kingdom were to redirect even a fraction of that capital and focus toward a nation-wide integrated pipeline network, the long-term economic security would be unparalleled:

Water Security as a Sovereign Asset:

 In a region where water is more precious than oil, a robust, high-capacity desalination and distribution pipeline is the ultimate foundation for growth.

Sustainable Greening: 

Expanding the "Green Riyadh" and similar initiatives across the Kingdom requires a steady, reliable flow of water that only a massive, modern pipeline infrastructure can provide.

Industrial Diversification: 

Hydrogen and renewable energy transport require specialized corridors. Focusing on "The Pipe" rather than "The Line" positions Saudi Arabia as the global hub for the energy transition.

From Vision to Utility

Every great nation goes through a period of "Grand Projects." But the most lasting legacies are often those that are invisible—the underground networks that power cities, hydrate lands, and connect industries.

By prioritizing a "Great Pipeline" strategy, the Kingdom can ensure that Vision 2030 delivers not just a visual landmark, but a functional backbone that supports millions of citizens and thousands of new businesses.

In the evolution of NEOM, the shift from a 170km residential mirror to a functional, high-tech infrastructure corridor might not just be a necessity—it might be the smartest move for the Kingdom’s future.

The Reality Check: A Pipeline vs. A Pipe Dream

A "Great Pipeline" strategy is often argued to make more sense than the original "The Line" concept because it addresses functional necessity over speculative architecture. While The Line was designed as a futuristic 170km mirror-walled city, critics and industry experts point out that the Kingdom’s most urgent existential challenge isn't housing for millions in a vertical wall, but rather securing water and energy for its existing and future population.

The logical superiority of a nationwide pipeline network rests on four main pillars:

1. Fundamental Water Security

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest producer of desalinated water, yet it faces constant pressure from population growth and industrial expansion.

Production vs. Distribution: 

Currently, 58% of spending in the water sector goes toward transportation and distribution.

Nationwide Reach: 

A "Great Pipeline" would create a robust integrated transmission system linking coastal desalination hubs to inland cities like Riyadh, ensuring that every cubic meter of water—and the energy used to create it—actually reaches the users.

Storage Redundancy: 

Strategic storage reservoirs connected via these pipelines would act as a buffer against plant outages or demand spikes, which is a matter of national security.

Economic Efficiency and ROI

While The Line required an estimated $100 billion to $200 billion for just its underground high-speed transit and freight systems, pipeline infrastructure offers a more traditional and stable return on investment (ROI).

Lower Capex for Higher Impact: 

A single landmark pipeline like the Jubail-Buraydah concession carries a capital expenditure (capex) of approximately $2.27 billion—a fraction of The Line's cost—yet it will deliver 650,000 m³/day of potable water to inland centers by 2029.

Private Sector Attractiveness: 

Investors often prefer "utility-style returns" from contracted transmission assets over the high-risk speculative nature of megacity housing.

Enabling the Energy Transition

A "pipeline" strategy isn't limited to water. Modern infrastructure corridors can serve as the backbone for the Kingdom's green energy ambitions. 

The "Land Bridge" of Resilience:

Why the East-West Pipeline is Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Shield. In the shadow of a prolonged regional conflict involving Iran, Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (Petroline) has transitioned from a contingency plan to the world’s most critical energy artery. Spanning 1,200 kilometers from the oil-rich Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, this "land bridge" represents more than just infrastructure—it is a masterstroke of geopolitical foresight. 

1. Neutralizing the "Hormuz Chokehold"

The primary strategic value of the pipeline lies in its ability to completely bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Historically, Iran has used the threat of closing this narrow waterway—through which 20% of global oil flows—as a weapon of economic blackmail. By ramping up the Petroline’s capacity to 7 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia has effectively blunted this leverage, ensuring that global markets remain supplied even when the Gulf is impassable.

2. A Shield Against Regional War

During the recent escalations with Iran, maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf has become increasingly dangerous due to drone strikes and tanker seizures. The pipeline provides a secure, overland alternative that is significantly harder to disrupt than sea lanes. It allows Saudi Aramco to pivot its entire export strategy westward, loading tankers at Yanbu and Jeddah for direct access to European and Asian markets via the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

3. Economic Stability and Global Leadership

By maintaining a steady flow of crude oil and gas despite the conflict, Saudi Arabia cements its role as the "Central Bank of Oil." While other regional producers face crippled exports due to the closure of Hormuz, the Kingdom’s ability to "move the oil under the sand" prevents a catastrophic global price spike, which analysts suggest could otherwise exceed $150 per barrel.

4. Beyond Oil: The Future of Energy Transport

This corridor isn't just about the present crisis; it is the foundation for Saudi Arabia’s future. The same strategic path is being utilized for natural gas and hydrogen pipelines, positioning the Kingdom to become a global hub for clean energy. It transforms the Red Sea coast into a new industrial frontier, supporting megaprojects like NEOM and Red Sea Global.

Hydrogen and Renewables: 

Saudi Arabia aims to establish a $25 billion annual green energy export industry by 2030. This requires specialized pipeline corridors for grid-scale hydrogen and renewable energy transport.

The "Water-Power Nexus": Integrating water desalination with power plant functionality through shared infrastructure increases overall operational efficiency.

Environmental and Social Sustainability

Instead of a single "linear" city, a nationwide pipeline network supports the greening of the entire Kingdom. 

Wastewater Reuse: 

Under the National Water Strategy, Saudi Arabia plans to increase wastewater reuse from 21% to 70% by 2030. A massive pipeline network is required to transport this treated water to agricultural zones, which can cut non-renewable groundwater use by over 50%.

Urban Greening: 

Initiatives like Green Riyadh depend on this steady flow of water to transform arid desert areas into sustainable landscapes. In essence, while The Line was a revolutionary vision of urban living, the Great Pipeline represents the "invisible backbone" that provides the actual security and resources a desert nation needs to survive and diversify its economy under Vision 2030.

My Conclusion:

In the high-stakes landscape of the Middle East, the line between visionary ambition and practical survival is often blurred. Recent shifts in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030—specifically the quiet re-evaluation of NEOM’s 'The Line'—signal a pivotal move toward strategic realism. Amidst regional tensions and the constant threat of maritime blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, the Kingdom is discovering that its most powerful asset isn't an architectural marvel, but a 'Great Pipeline' strategy that bridges East and West, ensuring national security in an era of uncertainty.

As this autopsy shows, The Line wasn’t a city; it was a cover story. However, here is the bitter truth: if Saudi Arabia had invested those trillions in a massive, nationwide water and energy pipeline infrastructure, the Kingdom would be secure for the next century. Instead of building a vertical mirror in the desert that defies physics and logic, a Great Pipeline could have solved permanent water security through advanced desalination distribution.

Transformed the interior of the Kingdom into a sustainable green belt. Provided actual utility to millions, rather than luxury housing for a ghost population. The indefinite postponement of the 2029 Asian Winter Games, with hosting duties moved to Almaty, highlights a strategic shift toward financial discipline within Saudi Arabia's NEOM project. This pivot involves mitigating ballooning construction costs and addressing an $8 billion write-down in giga-project valuations, as the Public Investment Fund shifts focus toward projects with more immediate, tangible ROI, such as water infrastructure.

The Line may have served its purpose as a "funeral for old ideologies" and a catalyst for social transformation. However, as the "Prestige" act ends, the logical next step is a pivot to practical giga-infrastructure. A nationwide pipeline system isn't as "clickable" as a mirror city, but it is the foundation upon which a modern, sustainable Saudi Arabia will actually stand.

The Line was a $10 billion marketing stunt that left a 120km scar in the sand. It’s time to stop building monuments to ego and start building the infrastructure that a desert nation actually needs to survive. The Line is dead. It’s time for the Kingdom to pivot from science fiction to practical survival.

Could this be the end of Neom? It is unlikely, but it seems clear that the entire project, when complete, will be manifestly different from what was initially imagined. By 2034, FIFA will have its brand new stadium, but maybe without a city around: an ultra-modern football amusement park in the desert.

In a desert nation, water is life, but in a globalized world, the flow of energy is security. The East-West Pipeline is Saudi Arabia's insurance policy. It proves that while the waters of the Gulf may be contested, the Kingdom’s resolve to power the world remains unshakable.

Zeljko Serdar, CCRES.

#NEOM #TheLine #SaudiArabia #MBS #UrbanPlanning #Infrastructure #WaterSecurity #FIFA #TheBigDitch