Kako novi trgovinski dogovori EU-a mijenjaju izglede hrvatskih izvoznika.

Nakon desetljeća zastoja u pregovorima, Europa je dosegla prekretnicu u trgovinskoj politici: ušla je u pravu seriju potpisivanja sporazuma, sklopivši goleme pakte s vodećim silama poput Indije, Indonezije, Australije, Brazila i Argentine.

Ovaj val novih trgovinskih sporazuma označava strateški zaokret Europske unije prema diversifikaciji partnera i jačanju globalnog utjecaja u vrijeme rastućih geopolitičkih napetosti. Nakon dugogodišnjih, često mukotrpnih pregovora, EU je uspjela finalizirati ili potpisati ključne dogovore koji otvaraju vrata većem pristupu tržištima, smanjenju carina i suradnji u ključnim sektorima – od automobilske industrije i poljoprivrede do kritičnih sirovina i inovacija.

Sporazum s Indijom, koji su neki nazvali „majkom svih sporazuma“, otvara mogućnosti za milijarde eura uštede na carinama i jača veze između dviju najvećih demokracija svijeta. S Indonezijom je postignut dogovor koji dodatno učvršćuje položaj Europe u indo-pacifičkoj regiji, dok je sporazum s Australijom nedavno zaključen nakon osam godina pregovora, donoseći koristi i u području sigurnosti i obrane. Istodobno, povijesni dogovor s Mercosur blokom – uključujući Brazil i Argentinu – nakon više od četvrt stoljeća pregovora stvara jednu od najvećih slobodnih trgovinskih zona na svijetu, obuhvaćajući stotine milijuna potrošača i otvarajući put za rast izvoza europskih proizvoda poput automobila, vina i sira, uz uravnoteženi pristup južnoameričkim sirovinama.

Ovi sporazumi nisu samo ekonomski potezi – oni predstavljaju odgovor Europe na promjenjivu globalnu trgovinsku sliku, smanjenje ovisnosti o pojedinim tržištima i gradnju novih savezništava temeljenih na zajedničkim vrijednostima i pravilima. U vremenu kada protekcionizam dobiva na zamahu, Europa pokazuje da vjeruje u otvorenu, ali uravnoteženu trgovinu kao put prema prosperitetu i stabilnosti.

No, kakav će biti utjecaj tih sporazuma na hrvatsko gospodarstvo?

Hrvatska, kao mala otvorena ekonomija duboko integrirana u Europsku uniju, osjetit će te sporazume uglavnom indirektno – kroz učinke na cijelu EU, ali i kroz specifične prilike za domaće izvoznike. Ukupni izravni utjecaj na Hrvatsku bit će skroman u odnosu na veće članice poput Njemačke, Italije ili Španjolske, jer je trgovinska razmjena Hrvatske s ovim dalekim tržištima trenutačno relativno niska. Međutim, u pojedinim sektorima mogu se otvoriti značajne prilike, dok u drugima postoje rizici konkurencije. Pozitivni utjecaji na hrvatsko gospodarstvo Industrijski i farmaceutski sektor:

Sporazum s Mercosurom (Brazil, Argentina i dr.) donosi znatno smanjenje carina na europske industrijske proizvode – automobile, strojeve, farmaceutske proizvode i kemikalije. Hrvatske tvrtke iz farmaceutskog sektora (koji je već snažan izvozni adut), strojarstva i IT-a mogu lakše ući na ta tržišta, posebno uz olakšani pristup javnoj nabavi. Procjene za EU govore o rastu izvoza u Mercosur za do 39 %, što bi indirektno koristilo i hrvatskim dobavljačima unutar europskih lanaca vrijednosti. Prehrambeni i pićarski sektor: Smanjenje carina na vino, jaka alkoholna pića, maslinovo ulje, čokoladu i druge prerađevine pogodovat će hrvatskim proizvođačima s oznakama zemljopisnog podrijetla (npr. dalmatinska i istarska vina, maslinovo ulje). Velika hrvatska dijaspora u Južnoj Americi mogla bi dodatno potaknuti potražnju za poznatim brendovima.

Indija i Indonezija: Sporazumi s ovim golemim tržištima otvaraju vrata za hrvatski izvoz u područjima farmacije, strojeva, kemikalija i usluga. Posebno se ističe potencijal za IT i inženjerske usluge te za luksuzne i specijalizirane proizvode. EU procjenjuje da bi izvoz u Indiju mogao znatno porasti, a Hrvatska bi mogla sudjelovati u tom rastu kroz europske lance opskrbe.

Australija:

Novi sporazum poboljšava pristup kritičnim sirovinama i otvara tržište za europske proizvode visoke dodane vrijednosti, što može koristiti hrvatskim izvoznicima specijaliziranih roba i usluga. Općenito, ovi sporazumi doprinose diverzifikaciji hrvatskog izvoza, smanjenju ovisnosti o europskom tržištu i jačanju otpornosti gospodarstva u geopolitički nestabilnim vremenima. Potencijalni rizici i izazovi Poljoprivreda i prehrambena industrija:

Povećan uvoz jeftinijih poljoprivrednih proizvoda iz Mercosura (govedina, perad, šećer, med, žitarice) može stvoriti pritisak na cijene i konkurenciju za hrvatske poljoprivrednike. Iako su predviđene zaštitne mjere (kvote i sigurnosni mehanizmi), osjetljivi sektori poput stočarstva i ratarstva mogli bi osjetiti negativne učinke, slično kao u nekim drugim članicama EU-a.

Neravnomjeran utjecaj:

Koristi će se više osjetiti u industrijskim i uslužnim sektorima, dok bi tradicionalna poljoprivreda mogla zahtijevati dodatnu potporu i prilagodbu. Ukupni makroekonomski učinak na hrvatski BDP procjenjuje se kao ograničen, ali pozitivan u dugom roku zahvaljujući većoj trgovinskoj integraciji. Zaključak

Ovi trgovinski sporazumi predstavljaju stratešku priliku za Hrvatsku da proširi svoje izvozne horizonte i ojača položaj unutar europskog gospodarstva. Najveće koristi očekuju se u farmaceutskoj industriji, strojarstvu, vinogradarstvu i IT sektoru, dok će poljoprivreda zahtijevati pažljivo praćenje i moguće kompenzacijske mjere. Dugoročno, sporazumi mogu pridonijeti rastu izvoza, stvaranju radnih mjesta i većoj gospodarskoj otpornosti – pod uvjetom da hrvatske tvrtke aktivno iskoriste nove mogućnosti i da se provede adekvatna prilagodba osjetljivih sektora.

Što mislite – hoće li ovi dogovori donijeti dugoročnu korist europskim građanima i gospodarstvima, ili će izazvati nove izazove u osjetljivim sektorima poput poljoprivrede?

Željko Serdar, Hrvatski Centar Obnovljivih Izvora Energije (HCOIE)

From Hormuz Chaos to Energy Independence: Why Renewables Are Winning the Geopolitical Game

Strait of Hormuz Shutdown: 

The Fossil Fuel Wake-Up Call That Makes Renewables the Only Secure Path Forward

The ongoing war in Iran has starkly exposed the world's dangerous dependence on fragile fossil fuel chokepoints. Fighting has virtually halted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This disruption has sent energy markets into turmoil, driving up prices and putting severe pressure on import-dependent economies.

Asia, the primary destination for much of this oil, has been hit hardest, but the ripple effects are felt worldwide—including in Europe, where governments are scrambling to reduce energy demand, and in Africa, facing higher fuel costs and inflation risks.

What makes this moment different from past oil shocks is that renewables are now genuinely competitive. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), more than 90% of new renewable power projects worldwide in 2024 were cheaper than fossil-fuel alternatives. The conflict underscores the urgent need to accelerate the global shift to clean energy, reducing vulnerability to geopolitical flashpoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

For the Republic of Croatia, the future in renewables looks increasingly promising. Thanks to abundant natural advantages—high solar irradiation (one of the best in the EU), strong wind resources, established hydropower, and significant geothermal potential—the country is rapidly expanding its clean energy capacity.

In 2025, Croatia set new records: solar, wind, biomass, and biogas together generated over 5 TWh, surpassing other sources and covering 26.6% of electricity consumption. When including hydropower, renewables supplied more than 52.6% of electricity. Solar installations surged, reaching around 1.255 GW by late 2025, with projections for solar to overtake wind in installed capacity by early 2026.

Croatia's revised National Energy and Climate Plan targets a 42.5% share of renewables in gross final energy consumption by 2030 (with ambitions up to 65.6% by 2050), supported by massive untapped potential: up to 7 GW of solar and an estimated 25 GW in offshore wind. Ongoing regulatory improvements aim to unblock grid connections for large-scale projects, boost behind-the-meter solar and storage, and develop geothermal for baseload power.

By investing in these domestic, secure, and increasingly affordable sources, Croatia can enhance energy independence, shield itself from global fossil fuel volatility—like the current Hormuz crisis—and lead in Europe's green transition. The path is clear: renewables aren't just the future; they're the present and the smartest way forward.

Zeljko Serdar, Croatian Center of Renewable Energy Sources (CCRES)

Sweden’s electricity generation is predominantly fossil-free.

 

Sweden generates about 99% of its electricity from low-carbon sources, with fossil fuels making up just 1.2% of the mix. The country's power grid relies heavily on hydropower (around 40%), nuclear (about 27-29%), and wind (roughly 25%), supplemented by smaller shares from solar, biofuels, and other renewables. This fossil-free dominance isn't new; Sweden has been phasing out coal, oil, and gas for decades, achieving near-total decarbonization of its electricity sector while exporting clean power to neighbors.

This setup makes Sweden a global leader in sustainable energy, with low emissions per capita (0.6 tonnes CO2e) and a commitment to 100% renewable electricity by 2040. It's a model for how abundant natural resources like rivers and wind, combined with strategic nuclear use, can power a modern economy without relying on dirty fuels.

Sweden has long relied on nuclear energy as a cornerstone of its electricity system, providing stable, low-carbon baseload power that complements its abundant hydropower and growing wind resources. This role has evolved from a response to energy security concerns in the 1970s to a key element in the country's push toward net-zero emissions amid rising electricity demand.

Sweden's nuclear program began in the late 1960s as a strategy to diversify away from oil imports and support industrial growth, especially after the 1973 oil crisis exposed vulnerabilities in fossil fuel dependence. At the time, oil accounted for about 75% of the country's energy consumption, prompting a rapid build-out of nuclear reactors alongside hydropower. By the 1980s, nuclear had become integral, but a 1980 referendum led to a government decision to phase it out—though this was never fully implemented due to economic and energy needs. Instead, Sweden maintained and upgraded its fleet, avoiding new builds until recent policy shifts.

As of 2024-2025 data, nuclear power generates approximately 29-30% of Sweden's electricity, with six operational reactors across three plants: Forsmark (three reactors), Ringhals (two), and Oskarshamn (one). This contributes to Sweden's near-fossil-free grid, where nuclear provides reliable, dispatchable energy that balances intermittent renewables like wind (about 23%) and hydro (38%). In 2024, nuclear produced around 50 TWh out of total generation of 172 TWh, helping keep per-capita CO2 emissions low and enabling electricity exports to neighboring countries. It's particularly vital for grid stability in southern Sweden, where demand is high and hydro resources are limited.

Nuclear's efficiency is evident in its high capacity factors (often over 90%), minimal fuel needs, and role in decarbonization—Sweden's electricity sector emissions are among the world's lowest, at under 10g CO2/kWh. However, aging infrastructure has led to some reactor closures (e.g., two at Ringhals in recent years), reducing capacity from a peak of 12 reactors.

Future Plans and Policy

In a major pivot, the Swedish government under Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson shifted in 2023 from a "100% renewable" target to "100% fossil-free" by 2045, explicitly endorsing nuclear expansion to meet projected doubling of electricity demand by 2040-2045 (driven by electrification in transport, industry, and data centers). Plans include building two new large-scale reactors by 2035 and up to ten equivalent reactors by 2045, potentially including small modular reactors (SMRs) like GE's BWRX-300. A 2025 OECD report highlights nuclear (alongside onshore wind) as the most cost-effective option for this growth, with no viable role for offshore wind in least-cost scenarios.

Public opinion remains mixed, with about 50-60% supporting nuclear in polls, but the policy emphasizes its environmental benefits, such as reducing emissions by an estimated 62% in historical contexts. Challenges include high upfront costs, regulatory hurdles, and waste management, but Sweden's experience positions it as a leader in safe nuclear operations.

Overall, nuclear energy is pivotal to Sweden's energy security, climate goals, and economic competitiveness, evolving from a transitional technology to a long-term pillar in a fossil-free future.

Now, comparing Sweden to Croatia on renewable energy: 

While Sweden's electricity is over 70% renewable (hydro, wind, solar, etc., excluding nuclear), Croatia hit a milestone in 2025 with renewables supplying 52.6% of its electricity consumption—including hydro (26%), wind/solar/biomass/biogas (26.6%). 

Croatia's mix still includes notable fossil shares like gas (13%) and coal (4%), plus heavy imports (31%), but it's making rapid progress: renewable production grew, fossil output dropped over 50% in parts of 2025, and solar/wind are booming. Sweden is farther along in full decarbonization, but Croatia's trajectory shows strong potential, especially with targets for 42.5% renewables in overall energy by 2030. Both nations highlight Europe's push toward green power!

Zeljko Serdar, Croatian Center of Renewable Energy Sources (CCRES)