Yet, this era is tentative.
Introduction
In the mid-2010s, the global energy landscape appeared precarious. Oil prices had plummeted from over $100 per barrel in 2014 to under $30 by early 2016, driven by a supply glut from U.S. shale production and sluggish demand amid economic uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East loomed large, and forecasts painted a picture of persistent volatility, with many experts predicting prolonged dependence on volatile imports and a slow, uneven transition to renewables.
Fast-forward to November 2025, and the world confronts a strikingly different reality: an era of energy independence and abundance that few could have anticipated just six or eight years prior. This shift, marked by surging production, plummeting renewable costs, and diversified supply chains, has reshaped economies, bolstered security, and accelerated decarbonization efforts. This post explores whether this transformation holds true, examining historical predictions against current trends, the drivers of abundance, and the implications for a sustainable future.
Historical Predictions:
A Landscape of Caution and ConstraintSix to eight years ago—spanning 2017 to 2019—energy outlooks were dominated by caution. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2017 projected global oil demand to rise steadily to 104 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2023, but with warnings of supply risks from OPEC+ cuts and underinvestment in upstream projects. Renewables were seen as promising but niche; the IEA forecasted solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity to reach about 600 gigawatts (GW) globally by 2023, a figure that seemed ambitious given grid integration challenges and subsidy dependencies.
Natural gas was hailed as a bridge fuel, but LNG exports were expected to grow modestly, with the U.S. potentially becoming a net exporter only by the early 2020s—if shale economics held.In the U.S., the shale revolution was already underway, but independence was far from assured. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in 2018 predicted the country would remain a net petroleum importer until at least 2020, citing refining constraints and export infrastructure lags.
Globally, abundance felt elusive; McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2017 warned of "energy trilemmas"—balancing security, affordability, and sustainability—amid rising demand from Asia. Predictions emphasized scarcity risks: peak oil debates lingered, coal's decline was gradual, and electric vehicles (EVs) were projected to capture just 2-3% of global car sales by 2025. The consensus? Energy security would hinge on diplomatic maneuvering, not domestic booms or technological leaps.
These forecasts, while prescient in some areas, profoundly underestimated the pace of innovation and market forces. By 2025, reality has outstripped expectations, delivering not just stability but surplus.The U.S. Model: Achieving Independence Through Shale and DiversificationThe United States stands as the poster child for this unforeseen independence. In 2019, the U.S. became a net energy exporter for the first time since 1957, a milestone the EIA confirmed with exports surpassing imports by energy content.
By 2023, exports hit record highs, with oil production peaking at over 13 mb/d, and 2025 projections show sustained output around 13.2 mb/d despite some moderation in shale drilling.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and LNG exports have exploded, with the U.S. shipping 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2025—25% more than 2024—bolstered by new facilities like Plaquemines LNG.
This wasn't predicted in 2017-2019 outlooks, which anticipated net imports persisting into the 2020s. Instead, policy shifts under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and technological efficiencies in fracking have intertwined fossil fuels with renewables. U.S. CO2 emissions have declined as cheap gas displaces coal, while solar and wind capacity has surged to over 200 GW combined by mid-2025.
Reports from the Conference Board underscore this: "The US has achieved a long-desired goal: energy independence," but warn of challenges like permitting delays that could erode gains.
Abundance here means not just self-sufficiency but export prowess, with LNG reshaping global trade and shielding allies from Russian supply shocks.Global Trends: From Scarcity Fears to Supply SurfeitsBeyond the U.S., the world has embraced abundance on multiple fronts. Global energy demand grew 2.2% in 2024—faster than the 2013-2023 average—but was met with renewables claiming 38% of supply growth, outpacing natural gas (28%) and coal (15%).
Electricity demand surged 4.3%, the largest absolute increase ever (outside recessions), yet renewables filled the gap: solar alone added 306 terawatt-hours (TWh) in H1 2025, a 31% jump, pushing its global share to 8.8%.
By mid-2025, renewables overtook coal in electricity generation for the first time, at 34.3% versus 33.1%.
Oil and gas production trends further defy early predictions. World supply rose to 105 mb/d in 2025, up 1.8 mb/d from 2024, with non-OPEC+ nations like the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Canada driving 1.4 mb/d of growth.
OPEC+ added 1.4 mb/d, unwinding cuts amid softening prices, leading to a projected surplus of 2.7 mb/d in Q3 2025.
Brent crude averaged $69/b in 2025, down from peaks, thanks to this glut—far from the $80+ forecasts of 2018.
LNG supply waves from North America and Qatar promise lower prices, enhancing security post-Ukraine invasion.
Renewable abundance is even more pronounced. Solar PV capacity exceeded 3,000 GW by end-2025, with China (47%) and Europe (20%) leading; costs have plunged, making behind-the-meter solar/battery systems viable for households and businesses.
IRENA's 2025 Global Renewables Summit declared: "We are entering the age of renewable abundance," with investments up 14% annually since 2018 despite shocks.
McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2025 notes emissions peaked in 2024, with 2025 marking structural decline, as clean energy outpaces demand.
This contrasts sharply with 2017's modest projections, where solar growth averaged under 20% annually.Key Metric
2017-2019 Prediction (by 2025)
2025 Reality
Global Solar Capacity
~600-800 GW
>3,000 GW
Yet, this era is tentative.
Permitting bottlenecks, trade tensions, and uneven transitions in developing nations could reverse gains. Policymakers must prioritize grid upgrades, equitable access, and innovation to sustain abundance. In retrospect, the mid-2010s' pessimism underestimated human ingenuity; today, that same drive beckons us toward a truly sustainable tomorrow. The question isn't whether abundance arrived—it did. It's how we ensure it endures. Zeljko Serdar, CCRES.
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