European gas transmission system operators (ENTSOG)

Winter 2023 weather forecast by zeljko Serdar

The European Commission is drafting plans to help EU countries reduce fossil gas demand and, if necessary, curtail consumption in the face of “a likely deterioration of gas supply outlook” this winter. Over the past few months, gas supplies from Russia have declined in a “deliberate attempt to use energy as a political weapon”, driving energy prices higher and raising concerns about whether Europe will have enough supply to get through the next winter.

Already, supply to the Baltic States, Poland, Bulgaria and Finland has stopped. Supply to Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Italy has been reduced and flows through Nord Stream 1, the largest import route to the EU, have been cut by 60%.

“There is no reason to believe this pattern will change. Rather, a number of signals, including the latest decision to reduce further supply to Italy, point to a likely deterioration of gas supply outlook,” the Commission says in a new policy document.

The policy document, due to be published on Wednesday (20 July), has a self-explanatory title: “Save gas for a safe winter”.

While the EU tabled plans in May to phase out Russian fossil fuels and strengthen its security of supply, full energy independence from Moscow was not envisioned until 2027 at best. Now the EU needs to prepare for the “sizeable risk” of a complete halt of Russian gas supplies this year, the Commission warns.

The EU’s security of gas supply regulation adopted in 2017 defines three national crisis levels: “Early Warning”, “Alert” and “Emergency”.

The EU is currently at the early warning stage, but on 20 July, it will move to the alert stage, the document says. This means “there is concrete, serious and reliable information that an event likely to result in significant deterioration of the gas supply situation may occur and is likely to lead to the emergency level being triggered in the several Member States.”

This situation requires instruments that reduce gas demand, increased daily monitoring and information, measures for industry to reduce demand, switching from gas to other fuels and obliging public buildings to limit heating to 19°C and cooling to 25°C unless not technically feasible.

According to the draft policy document, the EU gas system has “more than compensated” for the 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) of reduced Russian gas imports, with 35 bcm of additional liquified natural gas and pipeline gas imported from elsewhere.

However, according to simulations by European gas transmission system operators (ENTSOG), a full disruption of Russian gas supplies would “likely result” in the EU falling short of its 80% storage target, possibly “as low as 65% to 71%”, leading to a gap of 20 bcm during the winter.

This means several EU countries would risk “running very low by the end of winter,” making it challenging to replenish supplies for the following year.

To anticipate this, the Commission’s proposed ‘demand reduction plan’ looks at cutting gas consumption by protected groups, like consumers and key services, as well as unprotected groups like industry. It also looks at more extreme curtailment measures if the situation becomes critical.

“Coordinated action now will be more cost-effective and less disruptive to our daily lives and to the economy than impromptu action later when gas supplies could be running low,” reads the leaked draft.

‘Protected’ consumers urged to contribute as well

Under the 2017 Gas Security of Supply Regulation, vulnerable consumers who “do not have the means to ensure their own supply” are protected under EU law. This definition covers private households, essential social services and small businesses.

The regulation also introduced a solidarity mechanism whereby EU countries “must help each other to always guarantee gas supply to the most vulnerable consumers” even in severe gas supply situations.

But while citizens are protected, the European Commission outlines gas-saving measures that can be taken to avoid curtailments in other sectors.

This includes “large savings” in heating by using gas saving campaigns targeted at households, including turning down thermostats by 1°C and mandating the reduced heating of public buildings, offices and commercial buildings to 19°C.

The European Commission also calls on EU countries to switch the fuel used for electricity production away from gas, including coal and nuclear power.

In words seemingly aimed at Germany, it calls on EU countries to postpone their nuclear phase-out plans where technically feasible, saying these national decisions “need to take into account the impact on the security of supply on the other Member States”.

The EU executive admits that temporarily switching from gas to coal “may increase emissions” and that renewables remain the top priority. And it also highlights a temporary relaxation of industrial emission rules to grant more leeway to industry. The situation in the gas market is tense, and unfortunately, we cannot rule out the deterioration of the situation. We have to prepare for the situation to come to a head.