A clean energy future / Outlook 2024 Conclusion

The world is entering a new era of falling power sector emissions. This chapter begins by examining why power sector emissions are likely to fall in 2025 – leaving 2024 as the peak of fossil generation – and then examines how fast global power emissions may fall this decade, as policymakers gear up to triple global renewable capacity and expand other clean sources.

Solar energy is leading the energy revolution, unlocking the possibility of achieving the tripling goal, and putting the electricity sector on course toward climate targets. We look at how the rise in new solar capacity in 2024 surpassed expectations and how growth in 2025 will continue.

We then contrast the weak electricity demand growth in 2024 – especially in OECD countries – with the big rise expected in 2025 and beyond. The future expansion of electrification – with China leading on this – and also the growth in data centers and rising use of air conditioning are significantly adding to electricity demand. We highlight just how important it is to avoid wastefulness and inefficiency, which reduce our ability to quickly reduce emissions.

Finally, we look at case studies of policies that have helped three very different countries – China, Brazil, and the Netherlands – achieve rapid growth in solar and wind in the last few years.

Through these four trends, we explore the factors behind the rapid and profound changes rippling through the electricity sector and set out the reasons why these changes will only accelerate in the coming years.

2024 was likely the peak of fossil generation, unlocking a new era of falling power sector emissions. Solar and wind have dramatically slowed emissions growth and many countries are already past peak power emissions. We forecast that power sector emissions will likely fall in 2025 – and would likely have done so already in 2024 had it not been for droughts reducing hydro generation. In last year’s report, we estimated that there would be a 0.4% reduction in power sector emissions in 2024, but because of the record fall in hydropower generation emissions instead grew by 1%.

In the years ahead, solar and wind additions are forecast to be sufficient to reduce power emissions, even under scenarios of high electricity demand growth. The fact that solar and wind will continue to increase gives confidence that power sector emissions will not just plateau but fall. Tripling global renewable electricity capacity by 2030 could supercharge the transition, and has the potential to help halve power sector emissions by 2030. 

The growth of solar and wind has set the conditions for a peak and decline in power sector emissions. Solar and wind have already dramatically slowed emissions growth and many countries are past the peak.

Clean electricity growth – led by solar and wind – has helped to slow the growth in fossil fuels by almost two-thirds in the last ten years. Fossil fuel generation rose on average by 3.5% per year from 2004 to 2013, slowing to 1.3% per year from 2014 to 2024.

Fossil fuel electricity generation was 22% lower in 2024 than it would have been if solar and wind generation hadn’t been built. Between 2006 and 2024, wind and solar have avoided 19 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions, which is over half of 2024’s total global CO2 emissions. 

Although power sector emissions reached an all-time high in 2024, solar and wind have prevented emissions rising even faster.

More than half of economies are already at least five years past a peak in electricity generation from fossil fuels. Emissions from these 118 power sectors have fallen by a quarter in the last decade. Collectively, they represent 43% of global electricity demand.

Many developed economies peaked over a decade ago. European countries have seen the biggest falls – fossil generation in the UK has fallen by 63% since its peak in 2008, Greece by 57% (having peaked in 2007), Spain by 59% (2005) and Germany by 42% (2007). The biggest falls have happened in the last few years as solar and wind power have accelerated.

Other key developed economies have peaked, and seen smaller falls. Fossil generation in the US has fallen by 16% since its peak in 2007, Canada by 26% (having peaked in 2001), Australia by 24% (2009), Japan by 29% (2012) and South Korea by 13% (2018).

Collectively, OECD countries saw power sector emissions peak in 2007, with a fall of 28% since then.

Falling power sector emissions are already the reality for many countries, and the scene is now set for global emissions to start falling.

Looking back in time, it is likely that 2024 will have been the peak of power sector emissions.

Clean capacity growth was already enough to deliver an emissions decline in 2024, but a record fall in hydro generation prevented that. Power sector emissions will likely fall in 2025, due to solar surging and a rebound in hydro generation, even as electricity demand picks up.

A signal is emerging from the noise of year-on-year variability: the world is at the peak, and about to enter a new era of falling power sector emissions.

Power sector emissions will fall, but the pace of the decline depends on how fast the world embraces clean electricity. 

Power sector emissions will inevitably reduce given current forecasts for solar and wind, but the step up to tripling renewables would almost halve them.

The analysis showed that many national plans are behind the curve of current renewables growth and need updating to keep up; this would then make a global tripling a real possibility. Many OECD countries – including the US, Canada, the UK, Netherlands and Germany – are already aiming for net zero power by 2035.

Power was the biggest emitting energy sector in 2024. It is possible that it could become the first sector to reach net zero, while unlocking emissions reductions across the global economy as the world moves towards a clean, electric future. Power sector emissions will fall this decade. But how rapidly they fall depends on the actions taken now.

China, Brazil, and the Netherlands have seen remarkable growth in wind and solar that has transformed their electricity systems at a rapid pace. Signaling ambition can create an environment in which wind and solar can thrive, enabling trust and confidence among investors. Choosing the right set of incentive mechanisms to drive the demand for wind and solar systems as well as the regulatory solutions to overcome technical barriers and facilitate the integration of wind and solar into the mix is more important than a country’s economic or geographic starting position.

Of course, even countries that have been successful in their transition so far are still facing challenges. For example, in the Netherlands, new wind and solar installations are being held back by grid congestion issues that could have been avoided with better long-term planning. Similarly, policies like net metering offer great incentives for residential solar adoption, but ensuring that additional grid costs are not shifted onto lower-income households is an important consideration to achieve a just transition. Additionally, the impacts of wind and solar deployment on local communities have underlined the need to ensure adequate safeguards are in place.

Crucially, China, the Netherlands, and Brazil have overcome barriers to the transition in the past. The current political, economic, and engineering challenges are also solvable. We have all the tools we need to get transitions off the ground where they have just started, facilitate acceleration where it is most needed, and push progress further in countries leading the global transition.

Luce 💓 The Anime Mascot Of The Catholic Church 2025

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Luce was designed as a kid-friendly mascot for the Catholic Church’s upcoming 2025 Jubilee Year, which is all about hope, forgiveness, and holy pilgrimages.

Archbishop Rino Fisichella, the organizer for the jubilee, says the mascot was inspired by the Catholic Church's desire "to live even within the pop culture so beloved by our youth."

Luce means “light” in Italian. The anime girl is designed to appeal to today's youth, who have grown up watching One Piece and D. Slayer. The character is rendered in the “chibi” art style, which means short, cutesy characters with big heads and stubby limbs.

Luce also appears to be a pilgrim, which is why she wears a raincoat, muddy boots, and a walking staff. These symbols symbolize her perseverance through a storm-ridden landscape.

Luce’s whole outfit is loaded with Catholic iconography and symbolism. She wears rosary beads around her neck, and her bright blue hair might refer to the Virgin Mary’s blue hair covering.

Luce also has scallop shells in her eyes, which are an iconic symbol of the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage, with the shell representing the way to the Cathedral.

Luce proved a pleasant surprise for anime-loving Catholics, instantly inspiring a deluge of fan art and positive commentary.

Luce was designed by Simone Legno, the Italian pop artist behind the Tokidoki brand, who takes inspiration from street graffiti and Japanese art.

Brightly colored cartoon characters are a fun, inoffensive way to appeal to the youth and the Catholic 

Luce will also appear as the Vatican’s mascot at Expo 2025 in Osaka, Japan, where she will be used to promote the theme of “Beauty Brings Hope.”

I hope you read it.

Luigi Mangione, 26, was arrested by local police at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s with a “hand-written” manifesto describing “ill-will toward corporate America,” false identification and a 9mm “ghost gun” potentially “made on a 3D printer,” New York Police Department Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said.

Assassinations are despicable. I don’t care if the targets are politicians or mafia bosses. It’s the method I despise. For those who are old enough to remember the killing of Patrice Lumumba, then JFK, then Malcolm X, then MLK, then RFK, every assassination is (I hate this word) a trigger. Assassinations are destabilizing. The shooting of Archduke Franz Ferdinand set off the First World War. Targeted violence has always been a sign – an augury – that the social order is breaking down. I would have preferred to see Osama bin Laden brought to justice so that we might have understood his methods and motives. I know that trials can be rigged, corrupted, and biased, but so far the courtroom is the best place we have in which to decide between guilt and innocence – and to assign an appropriate punishment. Assassination is a death sentence without the benefit of a judge or jury.

All of which is to say that I was deeply horrified by the assassination of Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealthcare, in cold blood, in broad daylight, in front of the Hilton hotel, in Manhattan.

As I write this, the gunman remains at large, but his motives were clearly written on the casings of the bullets he used: “deny” and “delay”. Many would argue that those are the two favorite activities, the go-to business practices, the bold-faced words in the scripts, that health insurance employees are instructed to follow. As a consequence, Thompson’s killing has set off a storm of conversations and internet postings about the deep wounds that the medical insurance industry has inflicted on Americans who made the mistake of trusting their carriers to provide adequate coverage.

It’s a pity that Thompson’s murder is being politicized – as the latest eruption of the left’s destructive rage or as the sign that a gun-lover is brandishing his muscle. Brian Thompson’s murder is a criminal response to a criminal situation. The only consolation – the only good that could come of it – would be if his death led to some serious soul-searching, to a concerted attempt to understand why an apparently affable CEO inspired such violence and hatred.

Deny. Delay. Everyone knows what those words signify in reference to medical insurance. Doctors and patients agree that our healthcare system is seriously broken. It hardly needs to be said that medicine, in the United States, reflects and further deepens our profound economic divide. Not long ago, my husband’s longtime doctor left his practice to join a medical concierge service that charges $60,000 per person per year. Soon after, I found myself in the waiting room of an upstate New York urgent care center, watching patients ask the receptionist if they could pay the $35 co-pay in $5 monthly installments.

The critique of the national health services in Canada and in Europe was always that one had to wait months for a medical appointment. But now, in this country, we have discovered that an appointment with a specialist might take months to arrange, and (depending on one’s insurance) will be anything but free, as it would be in countries with state-sponsored systems.

Long before Thompson’s killing, people had been talking about the loved ones who suffered and died because of an insurer’s refusal to pay the cost of a treatment or of long-term care. If the extremity and cruelty of these companies’ cost-cutting measures didn’t so often strip patients of their life savings and their homes, they might almost seem like a joke.

Recently, an insurance company in the north-east decided, and later (after a public outcry) rescinded its decision, to limit the hours of anesthesia for which a surgical patient could get reimbursed. Should the anesthesiologist, midway through a long surgery, turn off the hose and tell the patient to bite the bullet? Or should the patient be billed thousands of dollars for those last few hours? And before we blame the doctors for these high fees, let’s remember that the anesthesiologists are paying fortunes in malpractice insurance … to the companies that are being paid by both the doctor and the patient.

What’s puzzling is why people who have suffered so much because of the current system are so reluctant to try something else. What would be lost if we instituted healthcare for all? Our freedom? Our control? Our ability to choose? The bad news is all that is already gone. The only things that might be diminished would be the annual bonuses and stock options of the insurance company executives.

So let me be clear. I’m sad about Brian Thompson’s death. The mess we’re in wasn’t his fault. Our problems are so much larger than he was. He was an unlucky, visible symbol of everything that’s gone wrong with our healthcare system.

I’m sad about the rage and desperation that caused someone to write “deny” and “delay” on the bullets he aimed at Brian Thompson. But mostly what I’m sad about is the fact that we, as a society, are so willing to accept a status quo that dooms our neighbors to suffer and die without the medical care they need. The writer Lucy Sante has said that we are in the 33rd year of the Reagan administration – an observation that has never seemed more apt. More than three decades have passed since we were told that we were on our own, that the miseries of our neighbors were not our problem, and that we should continue to allow the industries that the unfortunate Brian Thompson represented to profit from our tragic, unrecoverable losses.

Francine Prose is a former president of the PEN American Center and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Letters and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Heat batteries store

If you are in Zagreb, Croatia, and you drive along Ilica street from west to east, when you reach Črnomerec, on the left, on the facade of a building, you will notice a large sign that says “Ciglane Zagreb”. Production at the brickworks has long ceased, the company formally ceased to exist in 2011, and since then it has only been mentioned in stories about times gone by. Find out why I am writing this in the post below.

Thermal batteries could transform renewable energy storage and provide a cheaper, more scalable alternative to lithium-ion technology. We need heat to make everything from steel bars to ketchup packets. Today, a whopping 20% of global energy demand goes to producing heat used in industry, and most of that heat is generated by burning fossil fuels. To clean up the industry, many companies are working to supply that heat with thermal batteries.

Storing energy as heat isn’t a new idea—steelmakers have been capturing waste heat and using it to reduce fuel demand for nearly 200 years. Renewable energy sources like wind and solar have seen prices fall dramatically in the past decade. However, these power sources are inconsistent, and subject to daily and seasonal patterns. So with the rise in cheap renewable energy has come a parallel push to find ways to store it for applications that require a consistent power source. Heat batteries are a fundamentally new way of storing energy at a small fraction of the cost. 

Heat batteries store excess electricity as heat in materials like bricks or graphite, which can reach temperatures over 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit. The stored heat can then be released when needed, making thermal batteries ideal for powering the manufacturing of steel, cement, and chemicals. What a thermal battery does is allow you to soak up clean, inexpensive electrons from wind and solar, store them as heat and deliver that energy later to an industrial customer.

Rondo Energy, (not Ciglane Zagreb) which turns bricks into batteries, wins fresh funding.

Rondo Energy is one of the leaders in this space. The company built its first commercial heat battery in California’s Central Valley at Calgren Renewable Fuels. The system stores solar energy during the day and delivers high-temperature heat 24/7. A pound of brick stores more energy than a pound of lithium-ion battery, at less than 10% of the cost. By 2027, Rondo Energy plans to expand production to 90 gigawatt-hours annually, a scale that could cut 12 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year. That’s the equivalent of taking 4 million gas cars off the road, according to the company.

With industrial heat demand expected to continue growing this decade, there’s an urgent need to find cleaner options. Thermal batteries could be a key strategy for keeping factories running as efforts to cut their emissions warm up. Thermal energy storage could connect cheap but intermittent renewable electricity with heat-hungry industrial processes. These systems can transform electricity into heat and then, like typical batteries, store the energy and dispatch it as needed. Despite their promise, thermal batteries face hurdles, including high upfront investment and a lack of familiarity among industrial users. The biggest hurdle is educating the market that this technology is available.

PS. Možda na Grgasu ponovo započnemo kopati.