John Titor's scary vision for the US future

"Greetings," Titor wrote in November of 2000 on an obscure site called the Time Travel Institute Forum. "I am a time traveler from the year 2036." Over the next four months, Titor described life in 2036. Gave us a glimpse into our future. The most immediate of Titor's predictions foretold a civil war in the United States having to do with "order and rights". As a result, the United States would split into five regions based on a variety of factors, including differing military objectives. That story is the kind of piece that can take you down an Internet wormhole that you emerge from and say "Did I really just spend two days on that?"

Now multiply that by 10 and back to 2024. Large groups of concerned Americans are traveling toward the southern border to demand action from the Biden administration to fix the "wide open" flood of illegal migrants. A clash between Texas and the Biden administration over who controls the Texas-Mexico border continues to escalate this week as federal officials once again demanded the state give Border Patrol agents access to a park that is a popular corridor for migrants to enter the United States illegally.

 

"We the People are resolute to stand to send a peaceful, lawful, and clear message to all city, state, and federal politicians and immigration enforcement officials who are enabling tens of thousands of illegal entrants, criminals, and known terrorists from over 160 countries worldwide to cross daily into our country along our southern border!" the press release said. 

The current stand-off has sparked fears among right-wing circles that President Joe Biden could try to federalize the National Guard, and the troops could be forced to choose between loyalty to the state and their country. The Texas National Guard is technically part of the US military, which ultimately reports to the president, but they take orders from the state governors except in exceptional circumstances.

The Supreme Court this week sided with the administration when it granted an emergency appeal to allow agents to keep cutting border wire set up by Texas after a lower court had blocked such moves. However, Border Patrol currently has "no plans" to remove the wire unless in an emergency. Gov. Greg Abbott says ten other states have sent the National Guard to the Texas border, and others will follow. Abbott says he is “prepared” for a conflict with federal authorities.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene called for a "national divorce" between red and blue states amid the escalating standoff over migration at the Texas border. Twenty-five Republican governors released a joint statement in support of Abbott on Thursday, praising him for "stepping up to protect American citizens from historic levels of illegal immigrants, deadly drugs like fentanyl, and terrorists entering our country." The dispute has inflamed loose talk of civil war and resistance from conservative media and politicians. 

The clause of the Constitution that Abbott references provides that “no State shall ... engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.” One thing that immediately stands out after reading this language is that it does not authorize any state to do anything. Rather, this clause is a prohibition on certain state actions; it forbids states from waging “War” except in limited circumstances. It is very odd to read a provision of the Constitution that limits state power as giving a state the power to violate federal law. Texas’ border stance challenges the federal government’s authority and goes against historical precedent. It is essential to ensure that the Constitution’s principles are upheld and that the rule of law is respected as the situation unfolds. 

John Titor, so far, withstands the test of time. 

US Building Energy Codes Program

The Building Technologies Office (BTO) supports the development and implementation of residential and commercial building energy codes by engaging with government and industry stakeholders, and by providing technical assistance for code development, adoption, and compliance. Through advancing building codes, we aim to improve building energy efficiency and to help states achieve maximum savings. For more information, visit energycodes.gov.

A few months ago, we discussed what building energy codes are, and more recently we looked at how they are developed and what role the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plays in that process. Today, we are going to take a look into the next step—how codes are adopted.

The Building Energy Codes Program

Assesses the savings impacts of model energy codes, calculating energy, cost, and carbon savings

Coordinates with key stakeholders to improve model energy codes, including architects, engineers, builders, code officials, and a variety of other energy professionals

Reviews published codes to ensure increased energy savings, such as the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) and Standard 90.1

Tracks the status of energy code adoption across the U.S. and provides technical assistance to states implementing updated codes

Provides a variety of educational and training resources and assists states working to measure and improve code compliance

Administers a Help Desk to assist individual code users with questions about energy codes.

First, here are a few key points:

Building codes are state laws. The U.S. does not have a national building code or energy code; instead, states or local governments can choose to adopt one of the national model energy codes, a modified version of the model code, or their own state-specific code.

Energy codes are just one of many building codes, such as fire, electrical, structural, or plumbing.

Energy codes are different than appliance and equipment standards. Energy codes cover the building itself—for example, the walls/floors/ceiling insulation, windows, air leakage, and duct leakage. Appliance and equipment standards cover the things that go into the buildings. However, there is some overlap, particularly in lighting.

Now, here are the three key primary components of the energy codes process and DOE’s role within them. It’s important to know that DOE’s Building Energy Codes Program is statutorily directed to participate in each of these phases.

1. CODE DEVELOPMENT

How it works: National model energy codes are developed by two private organizations, ASHRAE and the International Codes Council. ASHRAE develops the model commercial energy code, known as 90.1. The International Code Council developed the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC), which contains chapters for both residential and commercial buildings. Any interested party can participate in the development processes by submitting proposals to change the code and commenting on others’ proposals. The code cycle is continuous, with new codes being developed every three years. Final versions of each new edition are determined by a vote of the 90.1 committee members for ASHRAE and by the International Code Council membership for the IECC.

DOE’s role: DOE participates in both the ASHRAE and ICC development processes, but has no special status. DOE develops and submits code change proposals that strive to make cost-effective, energy-efficient upgrades to current model codes. After each new model code is published, DOE also must determine if the new version saves energy relative to the old version.

2. CODE ADOPTION

How it works: Most codes are adopted at the state level, though, in about 10 states they are adopted by cities. State adoption can occur directly by legislative action, or through regulatory agencies authorized by the legislature. Cities adopt codes through their mayors, councils, or committees depending on their form of government. Once adopted, the code becomes law within a particular state or local jurisdiction.

DOE’s role: DOE provides technical assistance to state and local governments to support their adoption processes. DOE responds to state and local requests and it also develops customized reports for every state detailing the benefits of upgrading to the current model codes. To ensure that its information is used effectively, DOE works with the Regional Energy Efficiency Organizations (REEOs) and the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) who have connections in almost every state and often participate directly in the adoption processes. DOE support also includes tracking state adoption status, coordinating activities among stakeholders, and technical analysis.

3. CODE COMPLIANCE

How it works: The key to realizing the full savings potential of building energy codes is by ensuring that builders are complying with them. Design and construction professionals are most likely to comply with the code when they are given education and training, particularly after a new code is adopted. Enforcement is almost always done by building permit office staff at the local (city) level who typically review plans first to ensure they are compliant and then conduct field inspections to verify that the plans are being followed during construction.

DOE’s role: DOE develops and regularly updates software (REScheck and COMcheck) to simplify and clarify compliance with model energy codes and standards, as well as a number of state-specific energy codes. DOE also develops education and training materials that are available free and used by governments, organizations, and trainers across the country.

DOE has also developed an affordable methodology for states and cities to determine energy and dollar savings opportunities associated with increased energy code compliance in single-family homes. Field studies based on the methodology have already been implemented in nine states with more underway. The data that comes from these studies helps focus education and training programs and provides a basis for utilities and states to determine whether such programs will be cost-effective. DOE is currently developing a parallel methodology for the commercial sector.

Building energy codes set minimum energy efficiency levels, but those savings are never realized unless states and localities actually adopt them. State adoption usually occurs through either legislative action or through regulatory agency actions. In some states, codes are adopted by local governments (“home rule”), generally through an action of the city or county. In all cases, once the code is adopted, it becomes law within the adopting jurisdiction. While adoption procedures are set by individual states, federal statute provides specific timelines for states to review and/or update their energy codes (based on the model codes), and to submit code adoption certifications to DOE. 

There are almost as many ways to adopt a code as there are states, but the following sections describe processes most commonly used around the country.

FEDERAL GUIDANCE

How it Works: Federal statute directs DOE to review each newly published edition of the model energy codes and to issue a determination as to whether the updated codes would result in increased energy efficiency in residential and commercial buildings. When a code results in increased energy efficiency (based on DOE’s review), the statute then requires states to review and/or update their building energy codes based on the new model codes. States are given two years to accomplish this process and certify their new code based on the updated model code. 

STATE GOVERNMENTS

Legislative Actions: A legislature can adopt a new energy code by title (e.g. the 2015 International Energy Conservation Code) or, more commonly, by directing either a one-time administrative action (“the Building Codes Department will adopt a new energy code by December 31”) or by putting in place an ongoing process. In Maryland, for example, there is a permanent law that requires the state to adopt each new version of the national model code within 18 months of when it is published. In Washington, however, a state law passed in 2009 that requires that energy codes reduce building energy use by 70% by 2031. Like all legislation, there is a process of hearings, public commentary, and revisions followed by a formal vote, and ending with an approved bill being signed into law by the governor.

Regulatory Action: Each state that adopts statewide building codes has an agency charged with administering them. To begin the adoption of a new code, the state agency typically releases a public notice of its intent, which includes the name of the code being considered, and often convenes a selected group of representative stakeholder interests. In almost all cases, the public then has the opportunity to review the proposed code and formally submit proposals to modify it. These proposals are heard by and voted on by either agency staff or a committee composed of representative stakeholders (such as builders, tradespeople, architects and engineers, product manufacturers, and efficiency advocates) selected by the agency, the legislature or the governor. This phase largely mimics the national code development process (described in our previous post). The results of this process are then incorporated into a revised code that the agency staff or committee votes to formally adopt. The adoption process may require a variety of approvals from other state agencies, the legislature, or the executive branch to become official. Overall, the regulatory process is lengthier than legislative action but may allow greater opportunity for local citizen participation.

LOCAL GOVERNMENTS

Home-rule states vary in the authority given to local governments. The range of options are:

No statewide code is adopted and the local government can select any code (e.g. Colorado, Arizona, and Wyoming).

Statewide code is adopted and local government may adopt that code as-is or may make only strengthening amendments (e.g. Maryland, Texas, the Washington state commercial code).

Regardless of how it is done, the actual process mirrors the just-described regulatory process with the city council or mayor’s office either convening a committee or directing the local building department to adopt a new code. In all of the above cases – legislative, regulatory, or local – the adoption process stipulates an effective date for the new code, usually one to six months after the adoption date, which is the point at which newly permitted buildings need to comply with the requirements of the new code. The time between the adoption date and the effective date allows building officials and design and construction professionals to become familiar with the new requirements.

DOE’S ROLE: TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

How it works: The DOE’s Building Energy Codes Program is directed by statute to help states adopt the most recent version of the national model energy codes. DOE does not typically participate directly in state and local code adoption processes; instead, it provides technical assistance to states and local governments to aid their processes. This includes a variety of useful services, such as:

Analysis of code improvements and amendments, associated energy and cost savings, and economic and environmental benefits of upgrading to new codes.

Coordination with affected national, state, and local interests to encourage code adoption, including an annual energy codes conference to promote the sharing of information and dissemination of resources across states and other stakeholders.

Free compliance tools to assist with code implementation – REScheck™ and COMcheck™ – based on the most recent editions of the model codes. These programs are widely used by builders and code officials to check compliance and are explicitly referenced by some state codes.

Code Review and Analysis:  DOE reviews newly published model codes and issues guidance as to whether they will increase energy efficiency. Following this, DOE conducts a variety of energy and cost analyses to assess the savings associated with codes.  DOE also assists states in evaluating their codes, helping adapt the model codes to their individual needs, providing state-level savings analysis, and other forms of support to ensure codes are well-understood and cost-effective to home and business owners.  In addition, DOE receives and tracks state certifications indicating that they’ve reviewed and/or updated their codes based on the model energy codes, as directed by federal statute.

Tracking Energy Code Adoption: The DOE tracks energy code adoption and implementation across the United States and reports the status by state for both residential and commercial codes. This provides transparency and a better understanding of what is happening across the U.S. in building energy codes. Individual profiles include the impact codes within each state, the current code version and any state modifications, as well as information on the responsible government agencies and primary contacts for a particular area. 

For more information on DOE’s support for building energy codes and code adoption, visit the Building Energy Codes Program website at www.energycodes.gov. 

Zeljko Serdar, CCRES Team

New Year’s Resolutions - Energy

 

As the confetti from New Year’s Eve celebrations settles, it is only fitting that we prepare our 2024 New Year’s Resolutions. Our resolutions are often about a change we wish to see in ourselves, but what about making them around the change we wish to see in our homes and our world? Making energy efficiency and sustainability part of your New Year’s resolutions opens a pathway to savings, community resilience, and a safer, healthier Earth for future generations to call home. 

Consumption of oil, gas, and coal has been growing, and all three fuels hit new record highs in 2023. But, at the same time, renewable energy has been booming. Production from wind and solar power worldwide in 2023 was about 55% higher than in 2020.  

Nonetheless, it's worth noting that despite the recession fears that marked much of the last year, a U.S. recession hasn't materialized so far. Oil demand in the U.S. and globally has been quite good too. I want to point out that the oil prices aren't meager compared to the pre-pandemic years. Natural gas may be low and many U.S. gas-focused producers are generating negative cash flow, but many oil investments remain profitable. I wrote a lot throughout the year about the performance differentiators, but even in the onshore services space factors such as gas vs. oilier basin exposure, the proportion of private vs. public clients or fleets contracted long-term vs. participating in the spot market would matter a lot.

Turning to 2024, I will first lay out my macro expectations.

A solar slowdown, relief for OPEC+, the rise of blue hydrogen, and other trends to watch out for in the year ahead. Even though total global solar capacity will continue to grow rapidly over the coming decade, the pace of growth in annual installations will start to slow in 2024 compared to the rates seen in recent years. If our forecast for 2023 holds, the average annual growth in capacity installations over 2019-23 was 28%, including 56% growth in 2023. By contrast, annual average growth from 2024-28 will be about zero, including a few years with contractions. Growth in the global solar market is following a typical S-curve. Over the last few years, growth has climbed rapidly up the steepest part of the curve. Starting in 2024, the industry will be past the inflection point, characterized by a slower growth pattern. The global solar market is still many times larger than it was even a few years ago, but it’s natural for an industry to follow this growth path as it matures. 

Not every region is currently in the same place along the S-curve. Africa and the Middle East, for example, have a long way to go before they hit their growth inflection points. But two major markets are driving this global growth pattern: Asia Pacific, dominated by China, and Europe. 

No U.S. recession or at best a very modest one.

Continued deceleration in inflation but not down to the coveted 2%; probably down to 3% with some upside risk in 2024 H2;

The Fed and other central banks cut a bit, though, pushing up commodities.

Weaker dollar/stronger emerging markets. In the conclusions of the first Global Stocktake at COP28, countries acknowledged that the remaining global carbon budget is shrinking rapidly, with a risk of overshooting the 1.5 °C goal. That means hundreds of billion tonnes of carbon dioxide will need to be removed or captured and stored to get the world back on course for no more than 1.5 °C of warming by 2100. 

Geoengineering techniques can be used to enhance the carbon absorption capacity of the planet, and to reflect sunlight back into space, helping to keep the earth cool. For example, aerosols or other chemicals can be released a few kilometers up into the atmosphere, thus reflecting more sunlight away from the planet’s surface. I believe that in 2024, governments and scientific institutions will come together to study this fascinating subject more deeply and discuss the pros and cons of pursuing it. 

In the energy space, I expect an average of $70-$80 crude oil (OIL). Some push-pull between geopolitical risks and OPEC's spare capacity while U.S. shale production growth moderates. The ambitions for low-carbon hydrogen around the world, reflected in government policies and corporate project development, are quite remarkable. As is a 108 - mtpa global project pipeline that skews 80% to green hydrogen, made from electrolyzing water. However, the rate of project maturation for electrolyzer hydrogen will remain slow as developers struggle to overcome key obstacles. 

Two of the most important challenges that green hydrogen projects will face are achieving competitive costs and securing firm commitments from off-takers. Projects with credible counterparties and those targeting hydrogen as a feedstock in existing applications are most likely to move ahead. Those targeting new applications will struggle to achieve costs that compete with traditional fossil fuels. Blue hydrogen projects will also move slowly through the project development cycle, but more will achieve FID as they benefit from competitive economics and scaling more quickly.  

More downside for U.S. natural gas in 2024 H1 as we are already halfway through the winter with no major events so far.

Sustained international and offshore capex, with flat U.S. activity and single-digit growth in Canada. A quote often misattributed to Albert Einstein is that nuclear power is "one hell of a way to boil water". It was actually coined in 1980, after the Three Mile Island reactor accident that helped to turn the tide of public opinion against atomic energy. In 2024, however, nuclear power is set to win widespread support as a key solution to the world's energy crisis, for the first time in over half a century. Nuclear power has faced and still faces, challenges of public acceptability and economic competitiveness against renewables and fossil fuel generation. But it is the only reliable, dispatchable, small physical-and-material footprint, plug-and-play zero-carbon solution for power generation. 

That is all from me and the rest of the Croatian Center of Renewable Energy Sources (CCRES) team for 2023. Many thanks to all of you for reading last year. Have a great holiday, and we will be back again and again in 2024. Happy working and trading in the new year, and feel free to share in the comments where you see the most upside going into 2024. Zeljko Serdar