Coronavirus (CoV) ends with 65 million deaths.

OMG do they know?!

Friday, October 18, 2019
8:45 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.
The Pierre hotel
New York, NY

Event 201 was a 3.5-hour pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic. The next severe pandemic will not only cause great illness and loss of life but could also trigger major cascading economic and societal consequences that could contribute greatly to global impact and suffering. The Event 201 pandemic exercise, conducted on October 18, 2019, vividly demonstrated a number of these important gaps in pandemic preparedness as well as some of the elements of the solutions between the public and private sectors that will be needed to fill them. The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates.

The Event 201 scenario

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. It is first exported by air travel to Portugal, the United States, and China and then to many other countries. Although at first some countries are able to control it, it continues to spread and be reintroduced, and eventually no country can maintain control.

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.

Highlights Reel

Selected moments from the October 18th Event 201 Exercise (Length: ~12 minutes)

Videos of Event 201

These five segments include discussions among high-level leaders of global businesses, governments, policy and public health. (Length ~3 hours)

Segment 1 - Intro and Medical Countermeasures (MCM) Discussion

Segment 2 - Trade & Travel Discussion

Segment 3 - Finance Discussion

Segment 4 - Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video

Segment 5 - Hotwash and Conclusion

God help us all, Zeljko Serdar

PM2.5 atmospheric particulate matter (PM)

What is PM2.5 and Why You Should Care

PM2.5 readings are often included in air quality reports from environmental authorities and companies. Find out what they mean and why you should monitor their levels.

PM2.5 refers to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) that have a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers, which is about 3% the diameter of a human hair.

Commonly written as PM2.5, particles in this category are so small that they can only be detected with an electron microscope. They are even smaller than their counterparts PM10, which are particles that are 10 micrometres or less, and are also called fine particles.

Where Do PM2.5 Come From

Fine particles can come from various sources. They include power plants, motor vehicles, airplanes, residential wood burning, forest fires, agricultural burning, volcanic eruptions and dust storms.

Some are emitted directly into the air, while others are formed when gases and particles interact with one another in the atmosphere.

For instance, gaseous sulfur dioxide emitted from power plants reacts with oxygen and water droplets in the air to form sulfuric acid as a secondary particle.

Why Are PM2.5 Dangerous

Since they are so small and light, fine particles tend to stay longer in the air than heavier particles. This increases the chances of humans and animals inhaling them into the bodies. Owing to their minute size, particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers are able to bypass the nose and throat and penetrate deep into the lungs and some may even enter the circulatory system.

Studies have found a close link between exposure to fine particles and premature death from heart and lung disease. Fine particles are also known to trigger or worsen chronic disease such as asthma, heart attack, bronchitis and other respiratory problems.

A study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association suggests that long-term exposure to PM2.5 may lead to plaque deposits in arteries, causing vascular inflammation and a hardening of the arteries which can eventually lead to heart attack and stroke. Scientists in the study estimated that for every 10 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3) increase in fine particulate air pollution, there is an associated 4%, 6% and 8% increased risk of all-cause, cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality, respectively.

The American Heart Association has also warned about the impact of PM2.5 on heart health and mortality:

“Exposure to PM <2 .5="" diameter="" in="" m="" span="" style="border: 0px; bottom: -0.25em; font-size: 12.0005px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2.5

 over a few hours to weeks can trigger cardiovascular disease-related mortality and nonfatal events; longer-term exposure (eg, a few years) increases the risk for cardiovascular mortality to an even greater extent than exposures over a few days and reduces life expectancy within more highly exposed segments of the population by several months to a few years.”

An association between mothers’ exposure to fine particles and birth defects has also been established by several reports.

Children, older adults and those who are suffering from lung and/or heart disease are especially vulnerable to the adverse effects of fine particles in the air and should take special precautions when ambient PM2.5 crosses unhealthy levels.

How to Read PM2.5 Readings

Due to the many adverse effects fine particles can inflict on a large number of people, PM2.5 is one of the major pollutants closely monitored by health authorities around the world. You will most likely come across a dedicated column for PM2.5 alongside the Air Quality Index (AQI), Pollutants Standards Index (PSI) or the air quality standards adopted by your country.

On a very clear and non-hazy day, the PM2.5 concentration can be as low as 5 μg/m3 or below. The 24-hour concentration of PM2.5 is considered unhealthy when it rises above 35.4 μg/m3.

Why 24-hour and not a shorter duration when evaluating the health impact of fine particles? This is because the potential damage caused by air pollutants depends not just on the concentration, but also on the duration of exposure. The longer you are exposed to PM2.5, the higher the risk of developing adverse effects caused by the exposure. That’s why a 24-hour measurement is a better reflection of the health effects of fine particles than say a three-hour reading.

The table below will give you a sense of what levels of PM2.5 are harmful and the appropriate precautions you need to take. It is based on the air quality standards for particle pollution published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

24-Hour PM2.5 Levels (μg/m3)

PM2.5	Air Quality Index	PM2.5 Health Effects	Precautionary Actions
0 to 12.0	Good 0 to 50	Little to no risk.	None.
12.1 to 35.4	Moderate 51 to 100	Unusually sensitive individuals may experience respiratory symptoms.	Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.
35.5 to 55.4	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups 101 to 150	Increasing likelihood of respiratory symptoms in sensitive individuals, aggravation of heart or lung disease and premature mortality in persons with cardiopulmonary disease and the elderly.	People with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should limit prolonged exertion.
55.5 to 150.4	Unhealthy 151 to 200	Increased aggravation of heart or lung disease and premature mortality in persons with cardiopulmonary disease and the elderly; increased respiratory effects in general population.	People with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should avoid prolonged exertion; everyone else should limit prolonged exertion.
150.5 to 250.4	Very Unhealthy 201 to 300	Significant aggravation of heart or lung disease and premature mortality in persons with cardiopulmonary disease and the elderly; significant increase in respiratory effects in general population.	People with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should avoid any outdoor activity; everyone else should avoid prolonged exertion.
250.5 to 500.4	Hazardous 301 to 500	Serious aggravation of heart or lung disease and premature mortality in persons with cardiopulmonary disease and the elderly; serious risk of respiratory effects in general population.	Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

How to Protect Yourself Against PM2.5

When the amount of PM2.5 is at unhealthy level, take these steps to reduce exposure and protect your health:

• Stay indoor and close all windows and openings that allow polluted air to enter, when possible.
• Turn on an air purifier that is equipped with a HEPA filter. Only a HEPA filter can effectively remove fine particles from the air.
• Most air filters in air conditioners are not HEPA filters as the latter will reduce air intake and would require the motor to work harder to push / pull air through. But an air conditioner is still helpful when fresh air intake is limited as it helps to circulate air and cool down (or warm up) room temperature.
• When most or all windows are closed, do not burn candle, incense or operate devices that emit smoke or gas to prevent harmful particles and gas (such as carbon monoxide) from building up.
• If you are a road warrior who must drive in all weather conditions, get a real air purifier for your car that comes with at least HEPA and activated carbon filters. A normal car filter can’t even remove traffic exhaust properly, let alone microscopic particles.
• If the air pollution is expected to last for many days, consider moving to an unaffected location.
• Boost your body’s resistance against PM2.5 by increasing your intake of these nutrients.
• If you must go outdoor, make it short and quick, and wear a N95 or higher face mask.

CCRES Haematococcus pluvialis

Haematococcus pluvialis, from which natural astaxanthin is derived, is not easy to grow. It required a pH neutral environment and requires specialized knowledge and techniques to keep it free of contamination by unwanted algae, fungi and protozoa. Basically, there are two ways to grow astaxanthin in a closed or open system.

CCRES ALGAE TEAM, uses both.
It begins with Haematococcus growing in closed culture systems. After five to seven days, the algae is transported to giant open culture ponds for a reddening cycle. Haematococcus pluvialis microalgae gradually turn from green to red as they accumulate astaxanthin. When the algae is sufficiently infused with astaxanthin, the CCRES company team harvests, washes and dries the algae, then extracts the dried biomass.

CCRES ALGAE TEAM
part of
Croatian Center of Renewable Energy Sources (CCRES)