Illegal immigration and mechanics of democratic government

This year, the US has an agenda that includes some of the upcoming elections in Croatia too. Immigration experts are raising the alarm about how the increasing flow of migrants illegally crossing into the U.S. may significantly impact states' representation in the House of Representatives and Electoral College.

Overall, according to the Federation for American Immigration Reform, there are an estimated 16.8 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S. as of June 2023. Therefore, because every House seat represents 761,168 residents on average, the total number of illegal immigrants accounts for roughly 22 seats in the House.

The US presidential election takes place on 5 November. But it's possible the candidate with the most votes won't be the winner. This is because the president is not chosen directly by the voters, but by what's known as the electoral college. When Americans go to the polls in presidential elections they're actually voting for a group of officials who make up the electoral college.

The word "college" here simply refers to a group of people with a shared task. These people are electors and their job is to choose the president and vice-president. The electoral college meets every four years, a few weeks after election day, to carry out that task. The number of electors from each state is roughly in line with the size of its population. Each state gets as many electors as it has lawmakers in the US Congress (the House and Senate).

California has the most electors - 54 - while a handful of sparsely populated states like Wyoming, Alaska, and North Dakota (and Washington DC) have a minimum of three.

There are 538 electors in total. Each elector represents one electoral vote and a candidate needs to gain a majority of the votes - 270 or more - to win the presidency. Generally, states award all their electoral college votes to whoever won the poll of ordinary voters in the state. For example, if a candidate wins 50.1% of the vote in Texas, they are awarded all of the state's 40 electoral votes. Alternatively, a candidate could win by a landslide and still pick up the same number of electoral votes. It's therefore possible for a candidate to become president by winning a number of tight races in certain states, despite having fewer votes across the country.

There are only two states (Maine and Nebraska) that divide up their electoral college votes according to the proportion of votes each candidate receives. Most states consistently vote for the same party each election. This is why presidential candidates target specific "swing states" - states where the vote could go either way - rather than trying to win over as many voters as possible across the country. Every state they win gets them closer to the 270 electoral college votes they need.

It is possible for candidates to be the most popular candidate among voters nationally, but still fail to win enough states to gain 270 electoral votes. In 2016, Donald Trump had almost three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but won the presidency because the Electoral College gave him a majority. In 2000, George W Bush won with 271 electoral votes, although Democrat candidate Al Gore won the popular vote by more than half a million. Only three other presidents have been elected without winning the popular vote, all of them in the 19th Century: John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B Hayes, and Benjamin Harrison.

When the US Constitution was being drawn up in 1787, a national popular vote to elect a president was practically impossible (country size and tricky communications). So, the framers of the Constitution created the Electoral College, with each state choosing electors. Smaller states favored the system as it gave them more of a voice than a nationwide popular vote to decide the president.

The electoral college was also favored by southern states, where slaves made up a large portion of the population. Even though slaves didn't vote, they were counted in the US Census (as three-fifths of a person). Since the number of electoral votes was determined by the size of a state's population, southern states had more influence in electing a president than a direct public vote would have given them.

In some states, electors could vote for whichever candidate they prefer, regardless of who voters backed. But in practice, electors almost always vote for the candidate who wins the most votes in their state. If an elector votes against their state's presidential pick, they are termed "faithless". In 2016, seven Electoral College votes were cast this way, but no result has been changed by faithless electors. In some states, "faithless" electors can be liable for fines or prosecuted for their votes or abstaining.

In 2020, US voters became familiar with the concept of "fake electors" after pro-Trump Republicans in seven US states created their electors in a bid to overturn the election's results. In some cases, they created and signed official-looking documents or arrived at state capitals on 14 December - when electors across the country met to officially cast their votes. Some of those involved have faced prosecution and investigations are still ongoing. Federal prosecutors later described the effort as a "corrupt plan to subvert the federal government function by stopping Biden electors' votes from being counted and certified".

Shortly after taking office in January 2021, President Biden signed an executive order requiring the U.S. Census Bureau to factor in all residents, including noncitizens, as part of its decennial calculation of the U.S. population. As a result, the apportionment of House seats and, therefore, electoral votes for presidential elections, could be swayed as migrants continue to pour over the southern border.

Illegal immigration has all kinds of effects and among them is that it distorts the mechanics of democratic government, so their inclusion in the census count for purposes of apportionment is outrageous.