Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Agrivoltaics / Agrophotovoltaics (APV)

 

Panels in agrivoltaic farms can be used in a variety of creative ways. Here, at a farm in Dornbin, Austria, they shield tomato plants from the sun. Image: Asurnipal/Wikimedia Commons. Previous page image: snvv/iStockPhoto
Agrophotovoltaics, agrivoltaics, or APV. Just like the name suggests, it's a way of combining photovoltaic solar panels with agriculture. In many parts of the world where fertile land is scarce, agriculture and solar developers have fought over available space. What each party might have been missing all along is that it could be more profitable for both of them if they worked together instead. And that may also just be the answer to the existential crisis being faced by so many farms across the world.
Is sharing high-value land between agriculture and renewable energy generation the future? And will it be enough to save the planet? Rémi Rauline and his fellow authors make the case for agrivoltaics.

As the world’s population continues to grow, so does demand for land capable of fulfilling our primary needs: food, shelter and energy. This continued growth in population also sees an ever-increasing level of stress placed on all earth’s ecological systems.

In Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics projects a population of about 30.9 m to 42.5 m by 2056 and between 33.7 m and 62.2 m by 2101. While the amount of land here on our island continent seems immense, our primary needs and our international role as a food producer can only be fulfilled in restricted areas—areas where rainfall, agricultural value and existing infrastructure, such as the electricity network, make food production possible.

According to ClimateWorks Australia’s report Land Use Futures, produced this year in collaboration with Deakin University and the CSIRO, some 53% of Australia’s area is already used for agriculture—including an intensive use zone concentrated around the southern and eastern coasts, which covers only 13% of our landmass but is responsible for almost all irrigated farming and a third of the agricultural sector’s output. Another 40% of our country is set aside for conservation or otherwise protected. Suddenly, Australia looks fairly small—and as both our population and that of the world grow, pressure on high value agricultural land will only increase.

Through international (the Paris Agreement, ratified in 2016) and state commitments (Victoria’s Climate Change Act 2017), Australia recognises the critical need to achieve zero net emissions by 2050. In 2019, 33% of Australian carbon emissions came from electricity generation, with only 21% of Australia’s total electricity generation coming from renewable sources—wind (7%), solar (7%) and hydro (5%). To meet our emissions targets, we need to increase the proportion of renewables sources five-fold.

The plan for this transition is mapped out in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s latest Integrated System Plan 2020. The AEMO plan recognises that wind and solar are both pragmatic, low-carbon and low-cost sources of energy for the Australian market. However, both wind and solar need extensive amounts of land. This land must meet key criteria to farm embedded energy from solar rays and wind flows. It must:

• be relatively flat, with great wind or solar potential;
• be accessible by road;
• fulfil planning zoning conditions; and
• be close to the existing grid.

So if our need for food, shelter and energy is increasing, and the amount of land to satisfy them is physically limited, the question becomes: how do we innovate to meet the challenge?

Ensuring food security requires dramatic changes in both consumer behaviour and farming practice. The intensive farming model has been degrading soil, producing low nutritive food and limiting resilience to climate change by reducing the range of crops to a few highly productive species.

If we want to feed our growing population, the agriculture of tomorrow is yet to be invented and the renewable industry can be part of the solution by using the same land

for both energy generation and agriculture, especially in areas of high agricultural value. This concept, known as “agrivoltaics” (and also as “agrophotovoltaics”, “solar sharing” and “agrovoltaics”) has been researched extensively over the last 30 years, especially in countries with small landmasses and/or high land prices. In those areas, we have now reached a point where implementing agrivoltaic solutions has become feasible.

In agrivoltaic projects, land use can be combined in a virtuous circle, where energy generation infrastructure provides shelter for crops and better water efficiency, while using land for crops and grazing results in a shade- free environment for solar panels.

Competition for land use in Australia

So why does this matter in Australia? The answer is that, while Australian renewable energy production has undergone a remarkable expansion over the last decade, the continuation of this expansion is now being impacted by a power grid that limits renewable contributions to geographically restricted areas that often also support high value agricultural production.

In 2019 alone, 11.1 GW of renewables were committed or under construction. Considering an average of approximately two hectares of land per MW of power, that’s over 20,000 hectares of land, equivalent to four Sydney Harbours or 12,900 MCGs.

In countries overseas, especially in Southern Europe, farmers have protested against the proliferation of solar plants in the landscape. Similar objections are now being seen more frequently in Australia, where renewable energy generation and high value agricultural production priorities are starting to coincide—to date, the great majority of solar farms built have been on lower quality farmland, but this will not always be the case.

In September 2018, for example, the Shire Council of Corangamite (in south- west Victoria) received 80 objections to a proposed $150 million solar farm in the region of Bookar. The project would have generated 200 MW via 700,000 panels, which were to be installed on 554 hectares of farmland. Speaking to a council meeting about the solar development, Councillor Simon Illingworth summarised the nature of the objections: “You can’t cut down a tree without having to replace the tree, but you can wipe out 1500 hectares of farmland while in the middle of the worst drought in Australia’s living history?”

The solar project was finally refused planning approval by the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal, on the basis that there was insufficient information contained in the planning documentation, along with significant issues around drainage and fire control, loss of agricultural land and community opposition.

In early 2018, the Victorian Minister for Planning was asked by the Greater Shepparton City Council to decide on the outcome of four solar farm permit applications in Victoria’s Goulburn Valley. The first of the proposals, the 68 MW Congupna solar farm, was approved in October later that year, but the remaining three—the Lemnos, Tallygaroopna and Tatura East solar farms— faced significant delays due to opposition from local farmers, and were not approved until late in 2019. The three delayed proposals will consist of more than 650,000 solar panels and generate 175 MW of renewable energy into the power grid, but will also be built on former irrigation properties. These properties had previously benefited from hundreds of thousands of dollars in grants to upgrade irrigation equipment—equipment that will never be used again.

Similar conflicts between farmers and renewable developers have arisen near Mildura, Victoria, with Powervault
being refused approval for two 7.5 MW developments on agricultural land, and at Culcairn in the NSW Riverina, where Neoen failed to get approval for a 400 MW solar farm.

Some states have tried to help developers, communities and councils navigate land conflict dilemmas. In Victoria, for instance, new planning guidelines (the Solar Energy Facility, Design and Development Guidelines) were released in July 2019. These guidelines are directed at encouraging investment and providing certainty for councils and developers around acceptable outcomes for land, communities and the environment. Under the new rules, the state’s Minister for Planning became the responsible authority for large scale renewable energy facilities. (This was previously the role of local councils.) The development of solar facilities became more consistent and reliable; however, conflicts continue to emerge in Victoria and across Australia.

While it is important to find pragmatic solutions for locations around high value agricultural land, we should also keep in mind that—in theory, at least—only a few hundred square kilometres of land would be sufficient to meet all of Australia’s electricity needs. In addition, many of the solar farms built to date have been on very low or lower quality farmland. Nevertheless, it is clear that a better solution is needed.

At this agrivoltaic plant near Lake Constance in Heggelbach, Germany, solar panels share space and sunlight with fields of wheat.

How does agrivoltaic work?

The idea of using land for both solar power generation and crop cultivation is about 40 years old (at least insofar as humans are concerned—nature has enjoyed the concept since the emergence of photosynthesis).

Initially, the objective of agrivoltaic technology was first to harvest the photons in excess of the light saturation point of the crops on the land they shared. (The light saturation point is essentially the maximum amount of photons absorbable by a plant species.) It has now moved to synergy between the two uses; either way, the idea is to produce energy while also providing additional income for farmers.

So how does it work? The concept is fairly simple in principle. Most commonly, solar panels are attached to taller arrays to allow farm production beneath (machinery access, animal movement, crop growing). Panels were originally spaced to allow for optimum light access and/or specific wavelengths to reach the plantings and the PV cells. Today, the methods for achieving this are more sophisticated; panels can be made translucent and/or mechanically operable, allowing finer control of the amount and/or wavelength(s) of light that are absorbed by the panel or allowed to reach the crops. The panels can also mitigate risks associated with extreme weather conditions, shielding crops from storms, drought and/or hail.

The process is still evolving: research is ongoing, and ways are being found to adapt solar sharing to the production processes of many different fruit and vegetables.

Japan has led the way in agrivoltaic technologies, incorporating solar panels into rice paddies, seen here in both late (left) and early season (right) stages. Images: Sigma 64/Wikimedia Commons

Agrivoltaics around the world

While agrivoltaic projects are still rare in Australia, there is plenty of evidence from around the world for their effectiveness—in particular, from Europe and Japan, which have embraced the idea enthusiastically.

– Europe:

In France, research conducted on a vineyard showed that solar panels reduced water irrigation needs between 12% and 34% (through shading) and also increased the quality of the fruit: grapes grown in this manner will generate an additional 13% of anthocyanins (the phenolic compounds that give red wine its distinctive colour) and 9% to 12 % of additional acidity. Panels were operable and could provide adequate shelter in evolving climate conditions.

In the UK, a research team led by Professor Paolo Bombelli from the University of Cambridge has developed tinted semi- transparent solar panels that operate on specific wavelengths of light, allowing plants and solar cells to harness different parts of the visible spectrum. By customising the absorption spectra of the photovoltaic panels, the team was able to create specialised solar panels that absorb high energy wavelengths in the blue (between around 400 nm and 500 nm) and green (around 500 nm to 600 nm) region of the visible spectrum to limit light stress in plants. “Customising the absorption spectra of photovoltaic panels allows them

to harness light in the region of the solar spectrum where plants are less effective,” wrote the authors in their study. The team analysed how growth under the semi- transparent panels affected plant metabolism and phenotype. The plants demonstrated a more efficient photosynthetic use of light (up to 68% for spinach) and their metabolic energy was found to be redirected toward growing tissue above ground.

Still in the UK, renewable energy developer Ecotricity became one of the first “bee guardian” businesses in the country for its plans to create a “bee haven” at its solar farm in Lincolnshire. They planted a 20,000-panel solar farm with native wildflower seeds to encourage bees and insects to the site. The concept has since been replicated in the USA by Fresh Energy.

In the Netherlands, German company BayWa r.e. and its Dutch subsidiary GroenLeven are building five pilot agrivoltaic power projects. The test crops are blueberries, red currants, raspberries, strawberries and blackberries. The panels provide cooler conditions for the plants and more stable humidity. BayWa r.e. designed a semi- transparent module allowing sufficient sunlight for the plant while protecting the crop from direct sunlight and other climate conditions (hail, heavy rain, etc). The project is being extended to 2.7 MWp.

– The USA: mutual benefit

In the USA, the Barron-Gafford research group investigated agrivoltaics for increasing the resilience of renewable energy and food production in drylands where crops are grown in the partial shade of the solar infrastructure. They demonstrated that the reduction of incoming active radiation under the PV panels yielded cooler daytime air temperatures and also higher moisture in the air, resulting in fruit production three times greater than on a control plot under an open sky. The influence of agrivoltaic systems on soil moisture showed that soil moisture remained 15% higher than in control settings and PV panels were around 9°C cooler in daylight hours; this could lead to a 1% increase of energy generation annually. This shows how agrivoltaics can be a win-win system, in which both crops and solar panels have mutually beneficial effects.

– The leading country: Japan

Japan is at the forefront of solar sharing in Asia and globally: in 2017 solar sharing projects in Japan generated about 230 MW over 330 hectares of land.

In the early 2010s, experimentation started with the development of tall, light- weight solar racks, which would allow for machinery to operate beneath, and also provide intervals for sunlight to hit the ground for photosynthesis. The data collected has been used as a precursor for shading rates depending on crops.

An aerial view of one of GroenLeven's agrivoltaic projects in the Netherlands.

Why are plants green, anyway?

The solar panels designed by the team from the University of Cambridge (see “Europe”, on facing page) are designed to provide mutual benefit for plants and people. They do this by working to give plants the light that they want, while finding a use for the light that plants don’t want. To this effect, they are transparent to the wavelengths of light that plants can absorb, while absorbing the wavelengths that plants reflect.

Apart from being an extremely clever design, these panels also allude to a question many of us have pondered at one point: why are plants green? The answer also explains which wavelengths the panels transmit, and which they don’t: plants absorb pretty much every photon of red and blue light they can find, but this isn’t the case with green light, which they reflect. That green light reaches our eyes, making plants appear green.

But why? Why do plants reflect green light instead of absorbing it? Why not absorb all wavelengths? The more the merrier, right?

The answer to this question is less certain, but one theory comes from the ancient history of our planet—and specifically from the first organisms that evolved to tap the sun’s energy for food. These organisms were bacteria called cyanobacteria—and as the name suggests, they’re blue. (Here in Australia, we’re all too familiar with them, in the form of blue-green algae.) These bacteria do the opposite of what plants do; they absorb green light, while reflecting red and blue wavelengths.

The ability to use sunlight to create free food made cyanobacteria extremely successful, so much so that by about 2.4 billion years ago, they dominated the earth’s surface. This meant that the first plants had to feed on the scraps they left: red and blue light. Plants therefore evolved to absorb and photosynthesise those wavelengths, not bothering with the green light that was rarely available to them anyway. So it is that, billions of years later, they do the same thing—and that the creatures who’ve replaced cyanobacteria as the earth’s dominant life form (us!) see them as… green!

Sources: SciShow, Quanta Magazine

Agrivoltaics in Australia

We’ve already discussed the case for agrivoltaics in Australia from the standpoint of conflict resolution and efficiency of land use. However, it’s also important to realise that this country stands to benefit hugely from both renewables in general and agrivoltaics in particular.

Australia is widely recognised as offering one of the highest potentials for renewable energy production in the world—the increasingly common phrase is that Australia has the capacity to become the “Middle East of renewables”. We could well become a world leader in hydrogen production, powered by renewables, a status that could potentially generate a multi-billion dollar boost to our economy.

If strategies, policy and political vision are aligned pragmatically, the objectives of the Paris Agreement—combined with the need for a price of less than $2 per kg of hydrogen at the farm gate to make Australian hydrogen competitive—require a dramatic expansion of solar facilities in Australia. The availability of ideal sites for solar (i.e. sites combining proximity to existing grid and population, flat land and low agricultural value) is running out, and conflicts between crop and energy farmers—real and perceived—will only become more costly and counter-productive for all parties.

This only makes it more frustrating that the concept of agrivoltaics remains barely researched in Australia. To date, there are a limited number of formal research projects in this country. These include a trial of
sheep grazing on a solar farm in the central western region of New South Wales, which is investigating potential benefits of grazing 120 wethers around a group of solar arrays. The early results from this project in terms
of animal health and wool production are very encouraging. There are also a number of solar farms across Australia that are successfully grazing sheep on the land as land management practice, but there is no formal data on the extent and outcomes of these activities.

There are no legislative barriers to agrivoltaics in Australia today. In fact, the Victorian DELWP Guidelines—developed in 2019—have recognised the concept and potential of agrivoltaics: “The cumulative impacts of solar energy facilities on an area can be reduced by:

  • having enough distance between solar energy facilities within an area to minimise or avoid environmental impacts and natural hazard risk exposure.”

If state planning authorities are now discouraging projects on very high value agricultural land (such as irrigated land), the main barrier to agrivoltaics in Australia is understood anecdotally to be a lack of knowledge of the benefits of shared land use.

Increased awareness of the opportunities of agrivoltaics, along with locally proven solutions, will build the confidence of developers to partner with farms to deliver agrivoltaic solutions.

This problem can be solved by sharing information through avenues such as this article, and by demonstration projects where approaches from international experience can be adopted locally to provide reliable (and bankable) data for future projects.

AUTHOR
Rémi Rauline (lead author) with Shane Melotte, Fiona Cotter and Tim Doolan for Energy Forms
Energy Forms provides specialist planning, environmental and engagement support for renewable energy, clean technology and sustainable projects across Australia. As one of the leading consulting companies in renewable energy project siting and approvals, Energy Forms is looking for partners to research agrivoltaics in Australia, adapted to our climate and related crops, and benefiting both farmers and solar developers. Visit them at energyforms.com.au.

Saturday, February 12, 2022

133x risk of myocarditis after COVID vaccination

 


New study

A recent study published on JAMA Network has shown that the risk of myocarditis following mRNA COVID vaccination is around 133 times greater than the background risk in the population.


The study, conducted by researchers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) as well as from several U.S. universities and hospitals, examined the effects of vaccination with products manufactured by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. The study’s authors used data obtained from the CDC’s VAERS reporting system which were cross-checked to ensure they complied with CDC’s definition of myocarditis; they also noted that given the passive nature of the VAERS system, the number of reported incidents is likely to be an underestimate of the extent of the phenomenon.


1626 cases of myocarditis were studied, and the results showed that the Pfizer-BioNTech product was most associated with higher risk, with 105.9 cases per million doses after the second vaccine shot in the 16 to 17 age group for males, and 70.7 cases per million doses after the second shot in the 12 to 15 age group for males. The 18 to 24 male age group also saw significantly higher rates of myocarditis for both Pfizer’s and Moderna’s products (52.4 and 56.3 cases per million respectively).


The study found that median time to symptom onset was two days, and that 82 percent of cases were in males, consistent with previous studies. Around 96 percent of affected people were hospitalized, with most treated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; 87 percent of those hospitalized had resolution of symptoms by time of discharge.


At the time of data review, two reports of death in people younger than 30 years of age with potential myocarditis still remained under investigation and were not included in the case counts.


Among the reported symptoms were: chest pain, pressure, or discomfort (89%), shortness of breath (30%), abnormal ECG results (72%), and abnormal cardiac MRI findings (72%).


The study’s authors noted that myocarditis following vaccination appeared to resolve more swiftly than in typical viral cases; however, given that vaccination is no longer considered a reliable way in which to avoid COVID infection, it is unclear whether this has any specific relevance to the cost-benefit analysis of COVID vaccination, especially considering the low risk of complications following coronavirus infection for the age group most at risk for heart-related complications following vaccination.


Given the plethora of studies confirming a link between vaccination and myocarditis, the CDC has commenced active surveillance of adolescents and young adults to monitor their progress following heart-related incidents after vaccination. Long-term outcome data, however, are not yet available.


In the meantime, the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology advise that people with myocarditis should refrain from competitive sports for three to six months, and only resume strenuous exercise after normal ECG and other test results are obtained. In addition, they advise that further mRNA vaccine doses should be deferred.


In conclusion, the study’s authors note that myocarditis is a “rare but serious adverse event that can occur after mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination … [and that] the risk of myocarditis after receiving mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines was increased across multiple age and sex strata and was highest after the second vaccination dose in adolescent males and young men. This risk should be considered in the context of the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination.”


Results  


Among 192 405 448 persons receiving a total of 354 100 845 mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines during the study period, there were 1991 reports of myocarditis to VAERS and 1626 of these reports met the case definition of myocarditis. Of those with myocarditis, the median age was 21 years (IQR, 16-31 years) and the median time to symptom onset was 2 days (IQR, 1-3 days). Males comprised 82% of the myocarditis cases for whom sex was reported. The crude reporting rates for cases of myocarditis within 7 days after COVID-19 vaccination exceeded the expected rates of myocarditis across multiple age and sex strata. The rates of myocarditis were highest after the second vaccination dose in adolescent males aged 12 to 15 years (70.7 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine), in adolescent males aged 16 to 17 years (105.9 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine), and in young men aged 18 to 24 years (52.4 and 56.3 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine and the mRNA-1273 vaccine, respectively). There were 826 cases of myocarditis among those younger than 30 years of age who had detailed clinical information available; of these cases, 792 of 809 (98%) had elevated troponin levels, 569 of 794 (72%) had abnormal electrocardiogram results, and 223 of 312 (72%) had abnormal cardiac magnetic resonance imaging results. Approximately 96% of persons (784/813) were hospitalized and 87% (577/661) of these had resolution of presenting symptoms by hospital discharge. The most common treatment was nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (589/676; 87%).

More info: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788346

Croatia

 


Why should you never visit Croatia? Don’t visit if you don’t like…

Colour

If you don’t like all the colours of the world, don’t bother coming.

History

Croatia has a lot of history. It’s got one of the best preserved colosseums in the world, Roman towns and memories from Croatia’s painful war. If you don’t like history, don’t bother coming.

Art

Don’t like art? Don’t bother coming.

Food

If you don’t like huge portions, good food and delicious deserts? Don’t bother coming.

Physical Activites

If you don’t like hiking, mountain biking, sailing, swimming, paragliding, white water rafting, kayaking, skiing and waterskiing, don’t bother coming.

Architecture

If you don’t like architecture, don’t bother coming.

If you don’t want to go on a holiday that is life changing, don’t bother coming to Croatia.

However, if you do, I’ll be happy to recommend places to stay and things to do in Croatia!

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

George Soros about 2022

 



2022 will be a critical year in the history of the world. In a few days, China—the world’s most powerful authoritarian state—will begin hosting the Winter Olympics, and, like Germany in 1936, it will attempt to use the spectacle to score a propaganda victory for its system of strict controls.

We are at or close to, important decisions that will determine the direction in which the world is going. The German elections have already occurred, the French elections will take place in April 2022. In that same month, Hungary’s voters—against great odds—may turn an authoritarian ruler out of power. Together with Putin’s decision whether to invade Ukraine, these developments will help determine the fate of Europe.

In October, China’s 20th Party Congress will decide whether to give Xi Jinping a third term in office as Party General Secretary. Then, the U.S. will hold a crucial mid-term election in November. 

Climate change will remain a paramount policy challenge for the world, but the dominant geopolitical feature of today’s world is the escalating conflict between two systems of governance that are diametrically opposed to each other. Let me therefore, define the difference as simply as I can.

In an open society, the role of the state is to protect the freedom of the individual. In a closed society the role of the individual is to serve the rulers of the state.

As the founder of the Open Society Foundations, obviously I am on the side of open societies. But the most important question now is, which system is going to prevail?

Each has strengths and weaknesses. Open societies unleash the creative and innovative energies of people, closed societies concentrate power in the hands of the one-party state. Those are the strengths. The weaknesses are more specific to local and regional conditions. For instance the relationship between the European Union and its member states is still evolving. The EU ought to protect Lithuania, which recognized Taiwan, from an unofficial blockade by China, but will it?The victory of open societies can’t be taken for granted, in a world teetering at the edge of military aggression, both in Ukraine and in Taiwan.

President Biden has generally adopted the right policies. He told Putin that Russia will pay a heavy price if he attacks Ukraine, but the U.S. will not go to war to defend Ukraine. If Putin attacks, his heaviest penalty will be greater TransAtlantic cooperation. Biden won’t make any unilateral concessions but is interested in finding a peaceful solutionThe choice is up to Putin.

At the same time, Biden has made it clear to Xi Jinping that if he uses force against Taiwan, China will have to confront not only the U.S. but a larger alliance composed of the AUKUS, that is Australia, United Kingdom and the U.S. and the QUAD that is U.S., Japan, Australia and India, together with a number of other potential allies who have not yet fully committed themselves to joint action, such as South Korea and the Philippines. Japan is the country that has most fully committed itself to defend Taiwan.

On the other hand, Xi Jinping has declared that he is determined to assert China’s sovereignty over Taiwan by force if necessary. He is devoting enormous resources to armaments. Recently he surprised the world by demonstrating a hypersonic controllable missile.

The U.S. has nothing comparable and doesn’t intend to compete. I think that is the right policy because Xi Jinping’s hypersonic achievement doesn’t change the balance of mutually assured destruction that will stop the enemies from attacking each other. The missile is merely a propaganda victory. Still, war between the U.S. and its enemies has become more plausible and that is not a pleasant subject to contemplate.

Recently, I have asked myself the question, how did the current situation arise? When I embarked on what I call my political philanthropy in the 1980s, American superiority was not in question. That is no longer the case. Why?

Part of the answer is to be found in technological progress, most of which is based on artificial intelligence, or AI, which was in its infancy in the 1980s.

The development of AI and the rise of social media and tech platforms evolved together. This has produced very profitable companies that have become so powerful that nobody can compete with them, but they can compete with each other. These companies have come to dominate the global economy. They are multinational and their reach extends to every corner of the world. We can all name them: Facebook, Google, Apple and Amazon. There are similar conglomerates in China, but their names are less well known in the West.

This development has had far-reaching political consequences. It has sharpened the conflict between China and the United States and has given it an entirely new dimension.

China has turned its tech platforms into national champions; the U.S. is more hesitant to do so because it worries about their effect on the freedom of the individual. These different attitudes shed new light on the conflict between the two systems of governance that the U.S. and China represent.

In theory, AI is morally and ethically neutral; it can be used for good or bad. But in practice, its effect is asymmetric.

AI is particularly good at producing instruments of control that help repressive regimes and endanger open societies. Interestingly, the Coronavirus reinforced the advantage repressive regimes enjoy by legitimizing the use of personal data for public control purposes.

With these advantages, one might think that Xi Jinping, who collects personal data for the surveillance of his citizens more aggressively than any other ruler in history, is bound to be successful. He certainly thinks so, and many people believe him. I should like to explain why that is not the case. This will require a thumbnail history of the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP.

The first person to dominate the CCP, Mao Zedong, unleashed the Great Leap Forward that caused the death of tens of millions of people. This was followed by the Cultural Revolution that destroyed China’s traditional culture by torturing and killing the cultural and economic elite.

Out of this turmoil a new leader emerged, Deng Xiaoping, who recognized that China was woefully lagging behind the capitalist world. His motto was, “Hide your strength and bide your time”. He invited foreigners to invest in China, and that led to a period of miraculous growth that continued even after Xi Jinping came to power in 2013.

Since then, Xi Jinping has done his best to dismantle Deng Xiaoping’s achievements. He brought the private companies established under Deng under the control of the CCP and undermined the dynamism that used to characterize them. Rather than letting private enterprise blossom, Xi Jinping introduced his own “China Dream” that can be summed up in two words: total control. That has had disastrous consequences.

In contrast to Deng, Xi Jinping is a true believer in Communism. Mao Zedong and Vladimir Lenin are his idols. At the celebration of the 100-year anniversary of the CCP he was dressed like Mao while the rest of the audience was wearing business suits.

According to the rules of succession established by Deng, Xi Jinping’s term in power ought to expire in 2022. But Xi, inspired by Lenin, has gained firm control over the military and all other institutions of repression and surveillance. He has carefully choreographed the process that will elevate him to the level of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping and make him ruler for life. To accomplish this, Xi had to reinterpret CCP’s history to show that it will logically lead to appointing him for at least another term.

Xi Jinping has many enemies. Although nobody can oppose him publicly because he controls all the levers of power, there is, a fight brewing within the CCP that is so sharp that it has found expression in various party publications. Xi is under attack from those who are inspired by Deng Xiaoping’s ideas and want to see a greater role for private enterprise.

Xi Jinping himself believes that he is introducing a system of governance that is inherently superior to liberal democracy. But he rules by intimidation and nobody dares to tell him what he doesn’t want to hear. As a result, it is difficult to shake his beliefs, even as the gap between his beliefs and reality has grown ever wider.

China is facing an economic crisis centered on the real estate market, which has been the main engine of growth since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013.

The model on which the real estate boom is based is unsustainable. People buying apartments have to start paying for them even before they are built. So, the system is built on credit. Local governments derive most of their revenues from selling land at ever-rising prices.

Eventually, prices had to rise beyond the level that ordinary people can afford. That happened in the middle of 2021. By then, the boom had grown to an unhealthy size. It accounted for nearly 30% of the economy and it was eating up an ever-increasing amount of credit.

After accelerating gradually, the property boom ended with a bang. Residential land prices in June 2021 were more than 30% higher than they had been the year before. The authorities tried to slow down the pace and ordered banks not to increase lending for residential real estate.

The directive had the opposite effect from what was intended. It made it difficult for the largest and most leveraged developer, Evergrande, to meet its obligations. Subcontractors who didn’t get paid stopped working, and people who had bought apartments started to worry that they might never receive the homes they were paying for.

When the main selling season started in September, there were many more sellers than buyers. For a while there were hardly any transactions at the advertised prices, but today prices for both land and apartments are starting to fall. That will turn many of those who invested the bulk of their savings in real estate against Xi Jinping.

Evergrande is now in receivership and other developers face a similar fate. The creditors of Evergrande started fighting to improve their position in receiving bankruptcy distributions. The courts took charge, and their first move was to protect the subcontractors who employ some 70 million migrant workers.

It remains to be seen how the authorities will handle the crisis. They may have postponed dealing with it for too long, because people’s confidence has now been shaken. Xi Jinping has many tools available to reestablish confidence – the question is whether he will use them properly. In my opinion, the second quarter of 2022 will show whether he has succeeded. The current situation doesn’t look promising for Xi.

Closely related to real estate, China also faces a serious demographic problem. The birthrate is much lower than the published figures indicate. Experts calculate that the actual population is about 130 million lower than the official figure of 1.4 billion. This is not widely known, but it will aggravate the real estate crisis, produce labor shortages, fiscal strain and a slowdown in the economy.

Xi Jinping has also encountered serious problems with vaccines. The Chinese vaccines were designed to deal with the Wuhan variant, but the world is now struggling with other variants, first Delta and now Omicron. Xi Jinping couldn’t possibly admit this while he is waiting to be appointed for a third term. He is hiding it from the Chinese people as a guilty secret.

All Xi Jinping can do now is to impose a “zero Covid” policy. This involves severe lockdowns at the slightest sign of an outbreak, but this is having a negative effect on economic activity. It is also inflicting severe hardship on the people who are instantaneously quarantined wherever they are and their complaints can’t be silenced.

Omicron threatens to be Xi Jinping’s undoing.  It is much more infectious than any previous variant, although it is much less harmful for all those who have been properly vaccinated. But Chinese people have been vaccinated only against the Wuhan variant and Xi Jinping’s guilty secret is bound to be revealed either during the Winter Olympics or soon thereafter.

Omicron entered China mainly through the port city of Tianjin, which is 30 minutes by high-speed rail to Beijing. By now it has spread to an increasing number of cities across China. It is no longer under control.

Since the Winter Olympics is Xi Jinping’s prestige project the administration is going to incredible lengths to make it a success. The competitors are hermetically sealed off from the local population but it doesn’t make sense to continue the effort after the event.  City-wide lockdowns are unlikely to work against a variant as infectious as Omicron. This is evident in Hong Kong where the Omicron outbreak looks increasingly serious. Yet the cost of zero-Covid is rising every day as the city is isolated from the rest of the world, and even from China. Hong Kong highlights the wider challenge Omicron represents for Xi Jinping.

He tried to impose total control but he failed. Given the strong opposition within the CCP, Xi Jinping’s carefully choreographed elevation to the level of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping may never occur.

It is to be hoped that Xi Jinping may be replaced by someone less repressive at home and more peaceful abroad. This would remove the greatest threat that open societies face today and they should do everything within their power to encourage China to move in the desired direction.

Thank you.