China's renewable energy in Latin America

China’s growing influence over global clean energy supply chains and its leverage over countries’ energy systems have raised international concerns. But the relationship between China and Latin America is also increasingly complicated as Latin American nations try to secure their resources and their own clean energy futures. Alongside international investments, Latin American countries are fostering energy innovation cultures that are homegrown, dynamic, creative, often grassroots, and frequently overlooked. These range from sophisticated innovations with high-tech materials to a phenomenon known as frugal innovation.

Chile is an example of how Latin America is embracing renewable energy while trying to plan a more self-reliant future.

New geothermal, solar, and wind power projects – some built with Chinese backing, but not all – have pushed Chile far past its 2025 renewable energy goal. About one-third of the country is now powered by clean energy.

But the big prize, and a large part of China’s interest, lies buried in Chile’s Atacama Desert, home to the world’s largest lithium reserves. Lithium, a silvery-white metal, is essential for producing lithium-ion batteries that power most electric vehicles and utility-scale energy storage. Countries worldwide have been scrambling to secure lithium sources, and the Chilean government is determined to keep control over its reserves, currently about one-half of the planet’s known supply.

The independent Chilean startup Reborn Electric Motors has developed a business converting old diesel bus fleets into fully electric buses. Reborn was founded in 2016 when the national electromobility market in Chile was in its early stages before China’s BYD ramped up electric bus use in local cities.

Reborn’s retrofitted buses are technologically advanced and significantly cheaper than their Chinese counterparts. While BYD’s new electric bus costs roughly US$320,000, a retrofitted equivalent from Reborn costs nearly half, around $170,000. The company has also secured funding to develop a prototype for running mining vehicles on green hydrogen.

China’s solar capacity is now 228 gigawatts (GW), more than the rest of the world combined, according to Global Energy Monitor. And wind capacity, at a whopping 310GW, also leads the world. With another 750GW of new wind and solar projects in the pipeline, China will hit its 2030 target of 1,200GW – an unimaginable number when proposed just a few years ago – five years early.

Bolivia’s “tiny supercheap EV” developed by homegrown startup Industrias Quantum Motors is another example of frugal innovation in electric vehicles. The startup aspires to bring electric mobility widely to the Latin American population. It offers the tiniest EV car possible, one that can be plugged into a standard wall socket. The car costs around $6,000 and has a range of approximately 34 miles (55 kilometers) per charge.

In April 2023, Chile’s president announced a national lithium strategy to ensure that the state holds partial ownership of some future lithium developments. The move, which has yet to be approved, has drawn complaints that it could slow production.

However, the government aims to increase profits from lithium production while strengthening environmental safeguards and sharing more wealth with the country’s citizens, including local communities impacted by lithium projects. Latin America has seen its resources sold out from under it before, and Chile doesn’t intend to lose out on its natural value this time.

Developing its own renewable energy industry has been a priority in Chile for over a decade, but it’s been a rough road at times.

In 2009, the government began establishing national and international centers of excellence – Centros de Excelencia Internacional – for research in strategic fields such as solar energy, geothermal energy, and climate resilience. It invited and co-financed foreign research institutes, such as Europe’s influential Fraunhofer Institute and France’s ENGIELab, to establish branches in Chile and conduct applied research. The latest is a center for the production of lithium using solar energy.

The government expected the centers to work with local businesses and research centers, transferring knowledge to feed a regional innovation ecosystem. However, reality hasn’t yet matched the expectations. The foreign institutions brought their own trained personnel. And except for the recently established Institute for Lithium, officials tell us that low financing has been a significant problem.

Chile is home to one of Latin America's largest public incubators and seed accelerators, StartUp Chile. It has helped several local startups that offer important innovations in food, energy, social media, biotech, and other sectors.

Often in South America, this kind of innovation is born and developed in a resource-scarce context and under technological, financial, and material constraints. This “frugal innovation” emphasizes sustainability with substantially lower costs.

Phineal is another promising Chilean company that offers clean energy solutions, focusing on solar energy projects. Its projects include solar systems installation, electromobility technology, and technology using blockchain to improve renewable energy management in Latin America. Many of these are highly sophisticated and technologically advanced projects that have found markets overseas, including in Germany.

Chile is also diving into another cutting-edge area of clean energy. Using its abundant solar and wind power to produce green hydrogen for export as a fossil fuel replacement has become a government priority.

The government is developing a public-private partnership of an unprecedented scale in Chile for hydrogen production and has committed to cover 30% of an expected $193 million public and private investment, funded in part by its lithium and copper production. Some questions surround the partnership, including Chile’s lack of experience administering such a large project and concerns about the environmental impact. The government claims Chile’s green energy production could eventually rival its mining industry.

With plentiful hydropower and sunshine, Latin America already meets a quarter of its energy demand with renewables – nearly twice the global average. Chile and its neighbors envision those numbers only rising.

The story of renewable energy’s rapid rise in Latin America often focuses on Chinese influence, and for good reason. China’s government, banks, and companies have propelled the continent’s energy transition, with about 90% of all wind and solar technologies installed there produced by Chinese companies. China’s State Grid now controls over half of Chile’s regulated energy distribution, enough to raise concerns in the Chilean government.

China has also become a major investor in Latin America’s critical minerals sector, a treasure trove of lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements that are crucial for developing electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense technologies.

In 2018, the Chinese company Tianqi Lithium purchased a 23% share in one of Chile’s largest lithium producers, Sociedad Química y Minera. More recently, in 2022, Ganfeng Lithium bought a major evaporative lithium project in Argentina for US$962 million. In April 2023, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed around 20 agreements to strengthen their countries’ already close relationship, including in the areas of trade, climate change, and energy transition.

Final thoughts

China has put business first, turning a blind eye to corruption and governance concerns. That cannot be good for Latin America. Washington is right to insist on democracy and transparency but it needs to offer carrots as well as brandishing a big stick. Unless it can commit to a much bolder agenda on trade and investment and a rethink of policy on Cuba and Venezuela, the US will find itself increasingly outmaneuvered in its own neighborhood by Beijing.

As for the rest of the world, global persuasion for China to shift its course on coal is critical. Climate diplomacy won’t be pain-free, but it is the only way to tackle the defining global crisis of our times. Countries in the West also need to learn from China, even if there is no simple cut-and-paste solution for them. It is a blessing that a template for success exists. Refusing to learn from each other, in a world where countries are more interested in fighting one another than climate change, would be futile.

Radioactive smoke cover

Europe could see a plume of radioactive smoke cover its skies if a nuclear plant explodes in the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia if a disaster were to happen in the plant. According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, radioactive particles would mainly affect Ukraine, significant concentrations of radionuclides could reach the city of Kyiv, but would also affect neighboring EU countries such as Belarus, Lithuania, Estonia, Letonia, Poland, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, and Slovakia.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Sunday that NATO leaders should discuss Ukraine's Zaporizhia nuclear power plant at a summit in Vilnius. Accusing Ukraine of "systematically damaging" the facility, Zakharova said that "the key attention of the NATO summit should be devoted to this. After all, the vast majority of alliance members will be in the zone of direct impact" if something happens at the plant, Zaharova said on Telegram.

What is behind Russia and Ukraine’s unprecedented mutual accusations over a possible explosion at the nuclear power plant of Zaporizhzhia – and the threat it would pose to Europe?

The 1986 accident at the nuclear power plant of Chornobyl, also on Ukrainian territory, is widely considered the worst disaster in the history of nuclear power – and still bringing shivers of horror to Europeans.

With its six VVER-1000 reactors, the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is the largest in Europe. It is, at present, on territory occupied by Russia and claimed as Russian under an internationally-unrecognized annexation.

The plant is close to the front line, as Ukraine is conducting a counteroffensive to free the occupied territories. However, the counteroffensive is not advancing as well as Kyiv would like.

While nothing much is happening at the front, there has already been a man-made disaster, namely the breach of the Kakhovka dam, which is undoubtedly linked to the military offensive. By blowing Kakhovka, a Ukrainian dam under the control of Russia, huge territories were flooded to create an obstacle for the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Of course, Russia couldn’t care less about the ecological consequences.

The question is, could Russia do something similar in Zaporizhzhia?

Ukraine and Russia have blamed each other for shelling that has repeatedly downed power lines essential to cooling Zaporizhzhia’s six reactors and avoiding a nuclear meltdown.

They also traded accusations that by blowing Kakhovka, the other side sought to dry up the center’s cooling pond, which fortunately still has water.

Russia keeps repeating that the Ukrainian army is preparing an attack on Zaporizhzhia with the possible use of long-range missiles provided by the West.

This is perceived by Ukraine and by Western analysts as preparation by Russia for a ‘false flag’ attack, meaning that Russia will cause a catastrophe, blame Ukraine, and use it as justification for more drastic action.

The same happened with Kakhovka. Russia keeps claiming that Ukraine hit the dam, although experts say that only a powerful bomb inside the concrete structure of the dam wall could have produced the result we saw. Only the Russian army had access to this infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Ukraine claims that Russia has planted explosives on the roofs of two of the Zaporizhzhia reactors, the onus being on IEAE to go and verify.

The Ukrainians have good intelligence. They had warned about Kakhovka, which in the West was dismissed as preposterous.

At first sight, neither side has an interest in causing a nuclear disaster. Both Ukraine and Russia consider this territory as theirs, why should they contaminate it for many years to come?

But bombs on the roof of two of the reactors, if confirmed, would cause more noise than nuclear pollution, if any.

The reactors are behind steel casing and concrete walls and an accident with the release in the atmosphere of the content of the reactor, as happened with Chernobyl, is out of the question.

Moreover, the US has warned Russia that nuclear contamination of NATO member states (the closest to Zaporizhzhia being Romania and Bulgaria) would trigger Article 5, meaning that the US may inflict a heavy blow to the Russian army as a reprisal.

A bomb explosion in Zaporizhzhia could also be considered a ‘dirty bomb’ because of the nuclear reactors and the nuclear waste stored nearby.

Such a bomb would reverberate hugely, even with no nuclear contamination.

Russia would of course blame Ukraine, but first and foremost it would relish the psychological effect, the panic in our societies, hoping to discourage the West from supporting Ukraine militarily and achieving a ceasefire on the Kremlin’s terms.

The best our societies could do is not to panic if Zaporizhzhia makes big headlines. But we are humans, radioactivity is scary and our feelings will always dominate the discourse – perhaps exactly the result Russia wants.

My note: The simulations described in this post do not reflect a current or predicted situation in Ukraine. To stay updated on the current situation at nuclear power plants in Ukraine and across the world, visit the website of the International Atomic Energy Agency at https://www.iaea.org/. Thanks, Z.S.