Monday, August 11, 2025
The Battery Breakthrough
Wednesday, May 7, 2025
Fully end EU dependency on Russian energy
The EU has dropped its share of Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%, thanks to the REPowerEU Plan, launched in May 2022 to reduce the EU’s dependency on Russian energy.
However, the EU saw a rebound in Russian gas imports in 2024. The European Commission has therefore presented a roadmap to ensure the EU fully ends its dependency on Russian energy, while ensuring stable energy supplies and prices across the EU.
The roadmap will see a gradual removal of Russian oil, gas and nuclear energy from the EU markets in a coordinated and secure manner as the EU transitions to clean energy. EU countries will prepare national plans by the end of 2025 setting out how they will contribute to phasing out imports of Russian gas, nuclear energy and oil. At the same time, efforts will continue to accelerate the EU’s energy transition and diversify energy supplies to eliminate risks to the security of supply and market stability.
The roadmap includes measures to
gas:
stop all imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027 by improving the transparency, monitoring and traceability of Russian gas across the EU markets. New contracts with suppliers of Russian gas will be prevented and spot contracts (for immediate payment) will be stopped by the end of 2025.
oil:
take fresh action to address Russia's ‘shadow fleet’ (vessels employed by Russia to evade sanctions) transporting oil
nuclear:
restrict new supply contracts co-signed by the Euratom Supply Agency for uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials deriving from Russia
By phasing out Russian energy, the REPowerEU roadmap will reduce the security risks the EU is facing. It will also contribute to the economic plan set out by the Competitiveness Compass, the Clean Industrial Deal and the Affordable energy action plan.
A cleaner and independent energy system helps boost the economy while also making a huge contribution to Europe's decarbonisation ambitions. The Commission will put forward legislative proposals to support the roadmap next month.
Monday, March 24, 2025
Mind Blowing Energy Facts You Didn't Know
- The Sun’s Overabundance: In just one hour, the Earth receives enough energy from the Sun to power the entire world for a year. If we could harness even a fraction of that solar power, we’d never run out of energy!
- Lightning’s Raw Power: A single lightning bolt carries enough energy to toast about 100,000 slices of bread. That’s one electrifying breakfast!
- Human Energy Output: The average person generates about 100 watts of energy at rest—just enough to power a light bulb. When you’re exercising, that can jump to over 300 watts. You’re basically a walking power plant!
- Coal’s Long Reign: Coal has been used as an energy source for over 4,000 years, dating back to ancient China. It’s still a major player today, though renewables are starting to steal the spotlight.
- Wind Power Origins: The first windmills were built in Persia around 200 BCE to grind grain. Today’s wind turbines are their high-tech descendants, generating electricity instead of flour.
- Eel-ectricity: Electric eels can produce shocks of up to 600 volts—enough to stun prey or deter predators. Nature’s own renewable energy source!
- Energy in Your Coffee: A single cup of coffee contains about 0.00002 kilowatt-hours of energy. It’s not much, but it’s enough to get your personal engine running.
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
New Year’s Resolutions - Energy
As the confetti from New Year’s Eve celebrations settles, it is only fitting that we prepare our 2024 New Year’s Resolutions. Our resolutions are often about a change we wish to see in ourselves, but what about making them around the change we wish to see in our homes and our world? Making energy efficiency and sustainability part of your New Year’s resolutions opens a pathway to savings, community resilience, and a safer, healthier Earth for future generations to call home.
Consumption of oil, gas, and coal has been growing, and all three fuels hit new record highs in 2023. But, at the same time, renewable energy has been booming. Production from wind and solar power worldwide in 2023 was about 55% higher than in 2020.
Nonetheless, it's worth noting that despite the recession fears that marked much of the last year, a U.S. recession hasn't materialized so far. Oil demand in the U.S. and globally has been quite good too. I want to point out that the oil prices aren't meager compared to the pre-pandemic years. Natural gas may be low and many U.S. gas-focused producers are generating negative cash flow, but many oil investments remain profitable. I wrote a lot throughout the year about the performance differentiators, but even in the onshore services space factors such as gas vs. oilier basin exposure, the proportion of private vs. public clients or fleets contracted long-term vs. participating in the spot market would matter a lot.
Turning to 2024, I will first lay out my macro expectations.
A solar slowdown, relief for OPEC+, the rise of blue hydrogen, and other trends to watch out for in the year ahead. Even though total global solar capacity will continue to grow rapidly over the coming decade, the pace of growth in annual installations will start to slow in 2024 compared to the rates seen in recent years. If our forecast for 2023 holds, the average annual growth in capacity installations over 2019-23 was 28%, including 56% growth in 2023. By contrast, annual average growth from 2024-28 will be about zero, including a few years with contractions. Growth in the global solar market is following a typical S-curve. Over the last few years, growth has climbed rapidly up the steepest part of the curve. Starting in 2024, the industry will be past the inflection point, characterized by a slower growth pattern. The global solar market is still many times larger than it was even a few years ago, but it’s natural for an industry to follow this growth path as it matures.
Not every region is currently in the same place along the S-curve. Africa and the Middle East, for example, have a long way to go before they hit their growth inflection points. But two major markets are driving this global growth pattern: Asia Pacific, dominated by China, and Europe.
No U.S. recession or at best a very modest one.
Continued deceleration in inflation but not down to the coveted 2%; probably down to 3% with some upside risk in 2024 H2;
The Fed and other central banks cut a bit, though, pushing up commodities.
Weaker dollar/stronger emerging markets. In the conclusions of the first Global Stocktake at COP28, countries acknowledged that the remaining global carbon budget is shrinking rapidly, with a risk of overshooting the 1.5 °C goal. That means hundreds of billion tonnes of carbon dioxide will need to be removed or captured and stored to get the world back on course for no more than 1.5 °C of warming by 2100.
Geoengineering techniques can be used to enhance the carbon absorption capacity of the planet, and to reflect sunlight back into space, helping to keep the earth cool. For example, aerosols or other chemicals can be released a few kilometers up into the atmosphere, thus reflecting more sunlight away from the planet’s surface. I believe that in 2024, governments and scientific institutions will come together to study this fascinating subject more deeply and discuss the pros and cons of pursuing it.
In the energy space, I expect an average of $70-$80 crude oil (OIL). Some push-pull between geopolitical risks and OPEC's spare capacity while U.S. shale production growth moderates. The ambitions for low-carbon hydrogen around the world, reflected in government policies and corporate project development, are quite remarkable. As is a 108 - mtpa global project pipeline that skews 80% to green hydrogen, made from electrolyzing water. However, the rate of project maturation for electrolyzer hydrogen will remain slow as developers struggle to overcome key obstacles.
Two of the most important challenges that green hydrogen projects will face are achieving competitive costs and securing firm commitments from off-takers. Projects with credible counterparties and those targeting hydrogen as a feedstock in existing applications are most likely to move ahead. Those targeting new applications will struggle to achieve costs that compete with traditional fossil fuels. Blue hydrogen projects will also move slowly through the project development cycle, but more will achieve FID as they benefit from competitive economics and scaling more quickly.
More downside for U.S. natural gas in 2024 H1 as we are already halfway through the winter with no major events so far.
Sustained international and offshore capex, with flat U.S. activity and single-digit growth in Canada. A quote often misattributed to Albert Einstein is that nuclear power is "one hell of a way to boil water". It was actually coined in 1980, after the Three Mile Island reactor accident that helped to turn the tide of public opinion against atomic energy. In 2024, however, nuclear power is set to win widespread support as a key solution to the world's energy crisis, for the first time in over half a century. Nuclear power has faced and still faces, challenges of public acceptability and economic competitiveness against renewables and fossil fuel generation. But it is the only reliable, dispatchable, small physical-and-material footprint, plug-and-play zero-carbon solution for power generation.
That is all from me and the rest of the Croatian Center of Renewable Energy Sources (CCRES) team for 2023. Many thanks to all of you for reading last year. Have a great holiday, and we will be back again and again in 2024. Happy working and trading in the new year, and feel free to share in the comments where you see the most upside going into 2024. Zeljko Serdar
Monday, February 20, 2023
Access to affordable energy
We are currently in the middle of a third energy crisis, as the Ukraine conflict rages on. With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate goals may need to come second to energy supply concerns caused by higher energy prices and clogged supply chains worldwide. Europe has already seen its major gas supplier Russia collapse. However, multi-decade high inflation and soaring interest rates may still considerably worsen the situation.
Industry players are all too familiar with the energy trilemma – the struggle that companies and policymakers face in ensuring a secure and reliable energy supply, at an affordable cost, with minimal environmental impact. Add increasingly frequent climate-related disasters, and we find ourselves at an energy inflection point as an industry and a society. Businesses and governments must develop new strategies to meet critical energy goals in an ever-more complex environment.
While global reliance on hydrocarbons will decline, new dependencies on critical minerals and technology will arise. Minerals powering the energy transition – like lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements – need additional investment. Their supply sources and demand centers will become new points of vulnerability, as well as economic and geopolitical advantages, shifting the geopolitics of resource policy.
I am not convinced that the current energy crisis will expedite the movement toward energy transitions. The whole debate around energy transitions and climate change ignores the political economy of this highly important policy issue. However, fossil fuel investment is hopefully on the decline, as the UN’s Antonio Guterres urges G20 countries to “dismantle coal infrastructure”, branding further government spending on fossil fuels “delusional. According to Climate Action Tracker (CAT), countries’ net-zero aspirations are still inadequate. Only 6 of the 41 nations covered by the CAT, accounting for 8% of global GHG emissions, have set ‘acceptable’ net zero objectives. Those six countries are Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the EU, the UK, and Vietnam. The US is evaluated as ‘average’, while Japan and China rank as ‘poor’.
Developing economies are more impacted by the energy crisis, with less access to resources, weaker economic frameworks, and volatile currencies. Thus, they are slower in phasing out fossil fuels, with insufficient renewables investment, often buying fossil fuels on the black market. According to the latest IEA figures, outlined in the World Energy Investment 2022 report global clean energy investment is picking up and is predicted to surpass $1.4 trillion in 2023, accounting for nearly three-quarters of global energy investment growth. Since 2020, the annual average growth rate in clean energy investment has increased to 12% from just over 2% in the five years following the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015.
Governments will increasingly look to diversify supply chains and secure critical minerals and energy from domestic or friendly sources. Broader environmental, social, and geopolitical considerations will also impact policy and the success of energy transition projects. Higher costs, including higher interest rates, are forcing governments to trade-off between affordability and decarbonization, often favoring fossil fuels in the immediate term.
Several countries now find it cheaper to replace natural gas with coal. In Europe, where carbon pricing is well established, permit costs have moderated this shift, though Germany will now maintain some coal plants as mitigation against natural gas price spikes.
The situation exacerbates the already patchy implementation of nations’ COP26 carbon reduction commitments, with disparities in energy costs between high- and low-action regions potentially incentivizing offshoring. These realities fundamentally change the game for businesses, policymakers, and developing economies. Companies should prepare for short-term shocks and build operational resilience to avoid major losses while developing robust scenarios to inform new strategic directions.
Another major policy achievement was the US Inflation Reduction Act, which would allow $369 billion in energy and climate change investment, with the goal of reducing US greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. However, these efforts may not be quite enough, as the World Energy Outlook 2021, mentions “Today’s pledges cover less than 20% of the gap in emissions reductions that need to be closed by 2030 to keep a 1.5 degrees Celcius path within reach.
Thursday, October 6, 2022
Eighth package of sanctions
This package introduces new EU import bans worth €7 billion to curb Russia's revenues, as well as export restrictions, which will further deprive the Kremlin's military and industrial complex of key components and technologies and Russia's economy of European services and expertise. The sanctions also deprive the Russian army and its suppliers from further specific goods and equipment needed to wage its war on Ukrainian territory. The package also lays the basis for the required legal framework to implement the oil price cap envisaged by the G7.
6 October 2022Brussels
The Commission welcomes the Council's adoption of an eighth package of hard-hitting sanctions against Russia for its aggression against Ukraine. This package – which has been closely coordinated with our international partners – responds to Russia's continued escalation and illegal war against Ukraine, including by illegally annexing Ukrainian territory based on sham “referenda”, mobilising additional troops, and issuing open nuclear threats.
Specifically, this package contains the following elements:
Additional listings
Additional individuals and entities have been sanctioned. This targets those involved in Russia's occupation, illegal annexation, and sham “referenda” in the occupied territories/oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. It also includes individuals and entities working in the defence sector, such as high-ranking and military officials, as well as companies supporting the Russian armed forces. The EU also continues to target actors who spread disinformation about the war.
EU restrictive measure target key decision makers, oligarchs, senior military officials and propagandists, responsible for undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Extension of restrictions to the oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia
The geographical scope of the restrictive measures in response to the recognition of the non-government controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and the ordering of Russian armed forces into those areas has been extended to cover all the non-government controlled areas of Ukraine in the oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
New export restrictions
Additional export restrictions have been introduced which aim to reduce Russia's access to military, industrial and technological items, as well as its ability to develop its defence and security sector.
This includes the banning of the export of coal including coking coal (which is used in Russian industrial plants), specific electronic components (found in Russian weapons), technical items used in the aviation sector, as well as certain chemicals.
A prohibition on exporting small arms and other goods under the anti-torture Regulation has been added.
New import restrictions
Almost €7 billion worth of additional import restrictions have been agreed.
It includes, for example, a ban on the import of Russian finished and semi-finished steel products (subject to a transition period for some semi-finished), machinery and appliances, plastics, vehicles, textiles, footwear, leather, ceramics, certain chemical products, and non-gold jewellery.
Implementing the G7 oil price cap
Today's package marks the beginning of the implementation within the EU of the G7 agreement on Russian oil exports. While the EU's ban on importing Russian seaborne crude oil fully remains, the price cap, once implemented, would allow European operators to undertake and support the transport of Russian oil to third countries, provided its price remains under a pre-set “cap”. This will help to further reduce Russia's revenues, while keeping global energy markets stable through continued supplies. It will thus also help address inflation and keep energy costs stable at a time when high costs – particularly elevated fuel prices – are a great concern to all Europeans.
This measure is being closely coordinated with G7 partners. It would take effect after 5 December 2022 for crude and 5 February 2023 for refined petroleum products, after a further decision by the Council.
Restrictions on State-owned enterprises
Today's package bans EU nationals from holding posts in the governing bodies of certain state-owned enterprises.
It also bans all transactions with the Russian Maritime Register, adding it to the list of state-owned enterprises which are subject to a transaction ban.
Financial, IT consultancy and other business services
The existing prohibitions on crypto assets have been tightened by banning all crypto-asset wallets, accounts, or custody services, irrespective of the amount of the wallet (previously up to €10,000 was allowed).
The package widens the scope of services that can no longer be provided to the government of Russia or legal persons established in Russia: these now include IT consultancy, legal advisory, architecture and engineering services. These are significant as they will potentially weaken Russia's industrial capacity because it is highly dependent on importing these services.
Deterring sanctions circumvention
The EU has introduced a new listing criterion, which will allow it to sanction persons who facilitate the infringements of the prohibition against circumvention of sanctions.
More Information
The EU's sanctions against Russia are proving effective. They are damaging Russia's ability to manufacture new weapons and repair existing ones, as well as hinder its transport of material.
The geopolitical, economic, and financial implications of Russia's continued aggression are clear, as the war has disrupted global commodities markets, especially for agrifood products and energy. The EU continues to ensure that its sanctions do not impact energy and agrifood exports from Russia to third countries.
As guardian of the EU Treaties, the European Commission monitors the enforcement of EU sanctions across the EU.
The EU stands united in its solidarity with Ukraine, and will continue to support Ukraine and its people together with its international partners, including through additional political, financial, and humanitarian support.
For More Information
European Commission website on EU sanctions against Russia and Belarus
European Commission website on Ukraine
Q&A on restrictive measures (which will be availble shortly)
Ps.
Ekonomske sankcije su komercijalne i financijske kazne koje jedna ili više zemalja primjenjuje protiv ciljane samoupravne države, skupine ili pojedinca. Ekonomske sankcije nisu nužno nametnute zbog ekonomskih okolnosti – mogu se nametnuti i za niz političkih, vojnih i društvenih pitanja.
Saturday, November 7, 2020
Energy Saving Tool
Energy Saving Tools is a web page that includes a set of tools for introducing energy saving actions in our daily life. It is possible to receive tips for energy efficiency in the field of building performances, electrical appliances, use of renewables and mobility.
In particular, for improving the energy performance of the building, the tool requests a set of basic information, in order to understand the current situation:
- Year of construction
- Residential area and number of floors
- Average electricity bill (per bimonth)
- Type of water heating system
- Type of space heating system
- Usual hot water temperature setting
- Usual Indoor Temperature setpoint in Winter and in summer
- Temperature setting of the fridge and freezer
- Level of insulation of the walls, roof, windows
- Presence of Solar Water Heater or photovoltaics
The list of questions aims to define the main features of the building, and accordingly the tool provide a series of eco-tips, characterized by a certain level of comfort improvement and energy-saving potential.
In particular, there is an interesting section on building operation, with a series of actions with a very simple implementation For example to seal well with insulating material the doors and windows in order to reduce leakage, or to avoid standby on devices (TV, decoder, charger, DVD, computer, playstation), to lower the temperature in 1 wash of the washing machine (dishwasher from 60°C to 30°C or washing machine at 30° C - 40°C).
Concerning the renewables, by specifying hot water usage data and usual habits, the program calculates the area of the panels to be installed.
The energy savings have been estimated based on the average sunshine, and with an average electricity price of 20 cents / KWh.
Although the local specificities, the tool can provide a very quick estimation on the surface of panels to be installed and the potential benefits (in terms of energy and energy bills) for a preliminary assessment.
Finally, the tool offers an overview of the potential savings for the building appliances: lighting, tumble drier, vacuum cleaner, oven, washing machine, air conditioner, refrigerator, TV, dish washer.
By providing the year of purchase and the current energy class, the tool evaluate the potential savings (in e and kWh) given by the purchase of a new one, considering the life time of the appliance and an average cost of electricity.
If you want to try the tool, visit the web page here and request your evaluation!
Zeljko Serdar, CCRES









