A New Blueprint for Europe’s Industrial Independence

The European Union classifies Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) as substances with high economic importance to EU industry combined with elevated supply risk, due to concentrated global production, geopolitical vulnerabilities, or limited substitutes. The list is updated every three years; the current framework stems from the 2023 assessment, formalized in the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which entered into force in May 2024.

EU Critical Raw Materials List

The EU identifies 34 CRMs. A subset of 17 Strategic Raw Materials (SRMs) receives priority focus because they underpin the green/digital transitions, defense, and space sectors, with projected demand growth likely to outpace supply. Copper and nickel (battery-grade) are included as SRMs even though they fall short of full CRM thresholds in some metrics.

Full CRM List (Strategic Raw Materials in bold or highlighted where applicable):

Aluminium/Bauxite

Antimony

Arsenic

Baryte

Beryllium

Bismuth

Boron/Borates

Cobalt

Coking coal

Copper* (SRM)

Feldspar

Fluorspar

Gallium

Germanium

Hafnium

Helium

Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE)

Light Rare Earth Elements (LREE)

Lithium

Magnesium

Manganese

Natural graphite

Nickel (battery-grade, SRM)

Niobium

Phosphorus/Phosphate rock

Platinum Group Metals (PGM)

Scandium

Silicon metal

Strontium

Tantalum

Titanium metal

Tungsten

Vanadium

*Note: Aluminium/bauxite is treated as linked; gallium is often a by-product of bauxite/alumina processing.

Key applications include:

Batteries/EVs — Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, manganese.

Renewables & electrification — Rare earths (magnets for wind turbines), copper, silicon, aluminum (transmission lines).

Semiconductors & digital — Gallium, germanium, silicon metal.

Defense & aerospace — Rare earths, gallium (for radars/semiconductors), titanium, tungsten, boron.

EU's Strategic Response: The Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA)

The CRMA aims to reduce strategic dependencies (especially on China, which dominates processing for many materials like rare earths, gallium, and graphite) through:

Domestic capacity targets by 2030 (non-binding benchmarks for SRMs):

10% of annual EU consumption from domestic extraction.

40% from EU processing.

25% from recycling.

No more than 65% of any SRM from a single third country at any supply chain stage.

Strategic Projects: These receive streamlined permitting, easier access to funding, and priority support. In March 2025, the Commission selected 47 EU-based strategic projects across 13 member states (total projected investment ~€22.5 billion), covering 14 of the 17 SRMs. A further 13 projects in third countries were recognized in June 2025. A second call closed in January 2026.

Broader Initiatives:

RESourceEU Action Plan (launched late 2025/early 2026): Mobilizes at least €3 billion via EU funds, EIB, InvestEU, etc., for domestic projects, circularity, market monitoring, and strategic reserves. Includes a European Critical Raw Materials Centre (planned for 2026) for intelligence and financing coordination.

Emphasis on circularity (recycling permanent magnets, secondary markets) and international partnerships (Strategic Partnerships with third countries).

Procurement platform for aggregated buying to strengthen buyer power.

Challenges remain significant: Domestic production lags, permitting delays persist, and full self-sufficiency is unrealistic due to geology and time/capital requirements. The European Court of Auditors (2026 report) noted risks of missing targets, with heavy ongoing import reliance (e.g., ~90%+ for some rare earths and gallium pre-new projects).

Link to Metlen Energy & Metals and Greece

Metlen's integrated project at the Aluminium of Greece complex (Viotia) stands out as one of the most prominent strategic initiatives. It modernizes bauxite mining, expands alumina production (to ~1.265 million tonnes/year), and launches Europe's first large-scale gallium production line (~50 tonnes/year target by ~2028, potentially covering full EU demand). Gallium, a by-product of alumina refining from gallium-rich Greek bauxite, is vital for semiconductors, 5G, solar, and defense applications. China produces >90% globally; Europe has imported ~90% of its needs.

The project was designated a Strategic Project under the CRMA in March 2025 (one of only a few directly addressing gallium, bauxite/alumina, and aluminum together).

Backed by €90 million EIB financing (announced January 2026).

First small-scale output (5 kg) achieved by early 2026, with ramp-up planned.

It also supports aluminum for high-voltage transmission lines in an electrified, AI-driven economy and ties into Metlen's broader energy-metals-defense model.

This exemplifies the "new European industrial model" of cross-sector integration, leveraging existing infrastructure for critical materials while advancing decarbonization and strategic autonomy.

Broader Context and Outlook

Europe's push reflects a shift from globalization to "open strategic autonomy" amid trade tensions, export restrictions, and surging demand from the green/digital transitions. While recycling and substitution help, primary supply gaps persist for materials like rare earths and certain battery inputs. Progress depends on faster permitting, private investment, public-private financing, and balanced international cooperation without over-reliance on any single partner.

The CRMA and RESource

EU mark concrete steps, but analysts caution that targets are ambitious and geopolitical risks (e.g., China’s processing dominance) remain. Companies like Metlen illustrate how targeted industrial players can bridge policy and execution, particularly in aluminum-gallium value chains.

As Europe navigates an era of geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, and accelerating technological change, the imperative for strategic self-sufficiency has never been clearer. The European Union has responded with policies aimed at “open strategic autonomy,” seeking to reduce dangerous dependencies on external powers for energy, critical raw materials, and advanced technologies while remaining open to global trade. In this context, one company stands out as a practical model of how scale, vertical integration, and forward-looking strategy can drive industrial resilience: Metlen Energy & Metals (formerly Mytilineos).

Metlen’s evolution from a Greek family-founded enterprise to a multinational listed on the London Stock Exchange (and FTSE 100) exemplifies a new blueprint for European industry. By combining a fully integrated energy business with a vertically integrated metals operation, the company creates natural synergies that hedge against volatility and accelerate growth in sectors vital to the green and digital transitions.

The Dual-Sector Model: Energy and Metals in Synergy

Metlen operates two complementary pillars. In Energy, it has built a diversified portfolio encompassing renewables (with a pipeline exceeding 10 GW), flexible thermal generation, energy storage, trading, and retail supply. Its efficient fleet and ability to act as a “virtual battery” — shifting consumption to periods of abundant low-cost renewable power — help stabilize grids and support the broader electrification of Europe.

In Metals, Metlen controls one of Europe’s few fully integrated aluminum value chains: from bauxite mining through alumina refining to primary and recycled aluminum production. Following the acquisition of IMERYS Bauxites Greece, it became Europe’s largest bauxite producer. This upstream strength is now being expanded significantly. A €295.5 million investment program, backed by the European Investment Bank, will increase bauxite output toward 2 million tonnes annually, raise alumina capacity to 1.265 million tonnes, and — crucially — launch Europe’s first domestic gallium production facility (targeting 50 tonnes initially). Gallium is a critical raw material essential for semiconductors, high-efficiency solar panels, and advanced electronics.

These investments directly address Europe’s vulnerabilities. The continent remains heavily dependent on imports for many critical materials, with China dominating gallium and rare earth processing. By producing gallium domestically, Metlen contributes concretely to the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act and reduces exposure to geopolitical risks.

Vertical Integration as a Competitive and Strategic Advantage

What makes Metlen’s approach distinctive is its emphasis on vertical integration. Controlling more of the value chain internally allows for greater cost efficiency, quality control, and resilience against price shocks or export restrictions. The aluminum smelter, for instance, can flexibly adjust its energy consumption to support grid stability — turning an energy-intensive process into an asset for the energy transition.

The company also invests in circular economy initiatives, including a pilot plant for advanced metals recovery, which aligns with Europe’s sustainability goals and reduces the need for primary raw materials. Digital transformation further enhances competitiveness: proprietary technologies, AI-driven optimization, and integrated operational systems help maintain low cash costs even in a high-energy-cost European environment.

Financially, Metlen has demonstrated robust performance, with ambitions for medium-term EBITDA in the €1.9–2.08 billion range. Its model of disciplined capital allocation, international partnerships (including long-term bauxite and alumina agreements with global miners), and asset rotation in renewables enables self-funded growth while pursuing new frontiers such as defense-related manufacturing in Greece.

Aligning Corporate Strategy with European Priorities

Metlen’s trajectory aligns closely with key EU objectives: energy security, reindustrialization, and leadership in the green transition. Its work in critical materials supports the goals of the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Chips Act. At the same time, the company’s international footprint — operating in more than 30 countries — embodies “open” autonomy: it leverages global opportunities while strengthening Europe’s domestic industrial base.

CEO Evangelos Mytilineos has emphasized that strategic autonomy is not merely declared but earned through production, investment, and speed of execution. Metlen’s actions — from gallium production to expanding renewable capacity and exploring circular metals — illustrate this principle in practice.

A Scalable Blueprint for Broader Renewal

Europe faces stiff competition from state-supported industries in China and massive incentives in the United States. Fragmented national efforts or reliance on subsidies alone will not suffice. Metlen’s success suggests a more effective path: fostering integrated, competitive private-sector champions that combine scale with innovation and sustainability.

Such companies can anchor regional supply chains, create high-skilled jobs, and attract further investment. They demonstrate that European industry can be both green and globally competitive when supported by a clear strategy and bold capital deployment.

Of course, no single company can solve Europe’s industrial challenges. Systemic issues — regulatory complexity, permitting delays, and energy costs — still require policy attention. Yet Metlen provides a tangible proof-of-concept: vertical integration, cross-sector synergies, and targeted investment in critical technologies can build genuine resilience.

As Europe pushes toward greater self-sufficiency, models like Metlen offer not just inspiration but a replicable blueprint. By scaling what works — integration, innovation, and strategic risk-taking — the continent can renew its industrial strength and secure its economic future in an increasingly uncertain world.

In the end, industrial independence is not about isolation but about building the internal capabilities that allow Europe to engage the world from a position of strength. Metlen Energy & Metals is showing how that can be done. 

Zeljko Serdar, CCRES

Kako novi trgovinski dogovori EU-a mijenjaju izglede hrvatskih izvoznika.

Nakon desetljeća zastoja u pregovorima, Europa je dosegla prekretnicu u trgovinskoj politici: ušla je u pravu seriju potpisivanja sporazuma, sklopivši goleme pakte s vodećim silama poput Indije, Indonezije, Australije, Brazila i Argentine.

Ovaj val novih trgovinskih sporazuma označava strateški zaokret Europske unije prema diversifikaciji partnera i jačanju globalnog utjecaja u vrijeme rastućih geopolitičkih napetosti. Nakon dugogodišnjih, često mukotrpnih pregovora, EU je uspjela finalizirati ili potpisati ključne dogovore koji otvaraju vrata većem pristupu tržištima, smanjenju carina i suradnji u ključnim sektorima – od automobilske industrije i poljoprivrede do kritičnih sirovina i inovacija.

Sporazum s Indijom, koji su neki nazvali „majkom svih sporazuma“, otvara mogućnosti za milijarde eura uštede na carinama i jača veze između dviju najvećih demokracija svijeta. S Indonezijom je postignut dogovor koji dodatno učvršćuje položaj Europe u indo-pacifičkoj regiji, dok je sporazum s Australijom nedavno zaključen nakon osam godina pregovora, donoseći koristi i u području sigurnosti i obrane. Istodobno, povijesni dogovor s Mercosur blokom – uključujući Brazil i Argentinu – nakon više od četvrt stoljeća pregovora stvara jednu od najvećih slobodnih trgovinskih zona na svijetu, obuhvaćajući stotine milijuna potrošača i otvarajući put za rast izvoza europskih proizvoda poput automobila, vina i sira, uz uravnoteženi pristup južnoameričkim sirovinama.

Ovi sporazumi nisu samo ekonomski potezi – oni predstavljaju odgovor Europe na promjenjivu globalnu trgovinsku sliku, smanjenje ovisnosti o pojedinim tržištima i gradnju novih savezništava temeljenih na zajedničkim vrijednostima i pravilima. U vremenu kada protekcionizam dobiva na zamahu, Europa pokazuje da vjeruje u otvorenu, ali uravnoteženu trgovinu kao put prema prosperitetu i stabilnosti.

No, kakav će biti utjecaj tih sporazuma na hrvatsko gospodarstvo?

Hrvatska, kao mala otvorena ekonomija duboko integrirana u Europsku uniju, osjetit će te sporazume uglavnom indirektno – kroz učinke na cijelu EU, ali i kroz specifične prilike za domaće izvoznike. Ukupni izravni utjecaj na Hrvatsku bit će skroman u odnosu na veće članice poput Njemačke, Italije ili Španjolske, jer je trgovinska razmjena Hrvatske s ovim dalekim tržištima trenutačno relativno niska. Međutim, u pojedinim sektorima mogu se otvoriti značajne prilike, dok u drugima postoje rizici konkurencije. Pozitivni utjecaji na hrvatsko gospodarstvo Industrijski i farmaceutski sektor:

Sporazum s Mercosurom (Brazil, Argentina i dr.) donosi znatno smanjenje carina na europske industrijske proizvode – automobile, strojeve, farmaceutske proizvode i kemikalije. Hrvatske tvrtke iz farmaceutskog sektora (koji je već snažan izvozni adut), strojarstva i IT-a mogu lakše ući na ta tržišta, posebno uz olakšani pristup javnoj nabavi. Procjene za EU govore o rastu izvoza u Mercosur za do 39 %, što bi indirektno koristilo i hrvatskim dobavljačima unutar europskih lanaca vrijednosti. Prehrambeni i pićarski sektor: Smanjenje carina na vino, jaka alkoholna pića, maslinovo ulje, čokoladu i druge prerađevine pogodovat će hrvatskim proizvođačima s oznakama zemljopisnog podrijetla (npr. dalmatinska i istarska vina, maslinovo ulje). Velika hrvatska dijaspora u Južnoj Americi mogla bi dodatno potaknuti potražnju za poznatim brendovima.

Indija i Indonezija: Sporazumi s ovim golemim tržištima otvaraju vrata za hrvatski izvoz u područjima farmacije, strojeva, kemikalija i usluga. Posebno se ističe potencijal za IT i inženjerske usluge te za luksuzne i specijalizirane proizvode. EU procjenjuje da bi izvoz u Indiju mogao znatno porasti, a Hrvatska bi mogla sudjelovati u tom rastu kroz europske lance opskrbe.

Australija:

Novi sporazum poboljšava pristup kritičnim sirovinama i otvara tržište za europske proizvode visoke dodane vrijednosti, što može koristiti hrvatskim izvoznicima specijaliziranih roba i usluga. Općenito, ovi sporazumi doprinose diverzifikaciji hrvatskog izvoza, smanjenju ovisnosti o europskom tržištu i jačanju otpornosti gospodarstva u geopolitički nestabilnim vremenima. Potencijalni rizici i izazovi Poljoprivreda i prehrambena industrija:

Povećan uvoz jeftinijih poljoprivrednih proizvoda iz Mercosura (govedina, perad, šećer, med, žitarice) može stvoriti pritisak na cijene i konkurenciju za hrvatske poljoprivrednike. Iako su predviđene zaštitne mjere (kvote i sigurnosni mehanizmi), osjetljivi sektori poput stočarstva i ratarstva mogli bi osjetiti negativne učinke, slično kao u nekim drugim članicama EU-a.

Neravnomjeran utjecaj:

Koristi će se više osjetiti u industrijskim i uslužnim sektorima, dok bi tradicionalna poljoprivreda mogla zahtijevati dodatnu potporu i prilagodbu. Ukupni makroekonomski učinak na hrvatski BDP procjenjuje se kao ograničen, ali pozitivan u dugom roku zahvaljujući većoj trgovinskoj integraciji. Zaključak

Ovi trgovinski sporazumi predstavljaju stratešku priliku za Hrvatsku da proširi svoje izvozne horizonte i ojača položaj unutar europskog gospodarstva. Najveće koristi očekuju se u farmaceutskoj industriji, strojarstvu, vinogradarstvu i IT sektoru, dok će poljoprivreda zahtijevati pažljivo praćenje i moguće kompenzacijske mjere. Dugoročno, sporazumi mogu pridonijeti rastu izvoza, stvaranju radnih mjesta i većoj gospodarskoj otpornosti – pod uvjetom da hrvatske tvrtke aktivno iskoriste nove mogućnosti i da se provede adekvatna prilagodba osjetljivih sektora.

Što mislite – hoće li ovi dogovori donijeti dugoročnu korist europskim građanima i gospodarstvima, ili će izazvati nove izazove u osjetljivim sektorima poput poljoprivrede?

Željko Serdar, Hrvatski Centar Obnovljivih Izvora Energije (HCOIE)

Stvara li se to umjetna glad?

U EU se upravo istodobno širi afrička svinjska kuga (ASK), bedrenica, a kao posljednja se pojavila i bolest plavog jezika, a znak upitnika i potreba za zamisliti se je činjenica da pogađaju različite vrste životinja. 

Afrička svinjska kuga (ASK):  Ugrožene vrste: Domaće svinje i divlje svinje. Bolest je specifična za svinje i ne prenosi se na druge životinje niti na ljude. 

Bedrenica (antraks):  Ugrožene vrste: Prvenstveno goveda, ovce, koze, konji i svinje. Zoonoza je, što znači da se može prenijeti na ljude, ali je kod životinja često smrtonosna.

Bolest plavog jezika:  Ugrožene vrste: Preživači, uključujući ovce (najosjetljivije), goveda, koze, jelensku divljač i antilope. Prenosi se ugrizom zaraženih komaraca iz roda Culicoides.

Sve tri bolesti imaju značajan utjecaj na stočarstvo, ali svaka pogađa različite skupine životinja, s ASK-om ograničenim na svinje, bedrenicom koja pogađa širi spektar domaćih životinja, a bolesti plavog jezika koja cilja preživače. 

Pitanje o tome kome bi bilo u interesu stvaranje umjetne gladi složeno je i često ulazi u područje spekulacija, jer nema konkretnih dokaza da se bolesti poput afričke svinjske kuge (ASK), bedrenice ili bolesti plavog jezika namjerno šire u tu svrhu. Ipak, kad razmotrite potencijalne aktere i motive temeljene na ekonomskim, političkim i društvenim faktorima, uz naglasak da su ovo hipotetske rasprave, može se svašta zaključiti.

Geopolitički akteri:

Države ili trgovinski blokovi: Zemlje koje izvoze hranu mogle bi imati koristi od nestašica u drugim regijama. Na primjer, gubitak stoke u EU zbog ASK-a ili bolesti plavog jezika povećava ovisnost o uvozu mesa iz zemalja poput Brazila, SAD-a ili Australije, čime one ostvaruju gospodarsku prednost.

Primjer: Kina je nakon epidemije ASK-a 2018.–2019. uvelike povećala uvoz svinjetine, što je koristilo izvoznicima.

Korporacije u prehrambenoj industriji:

Proizvođači alternativnih proteina: Kompanije koje razvijaju biljne proteine, umjetno meso ili druge alternative mogle bi profitirati od smanjenja ponude tradicionalnog mesa zbog bolesti životinja. Nestašice mogu potaknuti potrošače na prelazak na njihove proizvode.

Trgovci robom: Špekulanti na tržištu poljoprivrednih proizvoda mogu zaraditi na volatilnosti cijena izazvanoj nestašicama, jer bolesti poput ASK-a značajno povećavaju cijene mesa.

Politički ili ideološki motivi:

Unutarnja kontrola. U teorijama zavjere, koje se često pojavljuju, tvrdi se da vlade ili elite žele izazvati nestašice hrane kako bi povećale ovisnost stanovništva o državnoj pomoći ili kontrolirale društvene nemire. Ove tvrdnje, međutim, nemaju čvrste dokaze.

Ekološke agende: 

Neke grupe ili politike (npr. u EU) koje zagovaraju smanjenje stočarstva zbog klimatskih ciljeva (smanjenje emisija CO2) mogle bi indirektno doprinijeti percepciji smanjenja proizvodnje hrane. Primjerice, regulacije o gnojivima ili pesticidima kritizirane su kao potencijalno štetne za poljoprivredu, iako su motivirane održivošću. 

Opet ja s teorijama urote i pod dojmom Alltechovog dokumentarnog filma “World without cows”  Svijet bez krava. Željko Serdar, HCOIE.

Path to Climate Neutrality

The EU’s Path to Climate Neutrality: A Strategy for Energy Autonomy and Competitiveness.

The European Union’s ambition to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 is a bold commitment that intertwines environmental sustainability with economic competitiveness and energy autonomy. With the 2030 milestone approaching, the urgency to reduce reliance on fossil fuels has never been greater. In 2023, the EU spent over EUR 430 billion on fossil fuel imports, funds that could be redirected to drive the clean energy transition. This shift is not just about mitigating climate change; it is a strategic move to enhance energy security, lower costs, and position the EU as a global leader in clean technology. The EU’s framework, including the Clean Industrial Deal and the Affordable Energy Action Plan, sets a clear path for decarbonization while fostering economic growth. The National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) are critical tools in this process, guiding Member States toward the 2030 targets of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels, increasing renewable energy to 42.5% (with an aspiration for 45%), and improving energy efficiency by 11.7%. These plans, finalized by most Member States by April 2025, reflect significant progress, with projections indicating a 54% reduction in emissions by 2030. However, gaps remain, particularly in energy efficiency and land sector targets, requiring stronger implementation and additional measures. The EU has already demonstrated that climate action and economic growth can coexist. Since 1990, emissions have dropped by 37% while GDP has risen by 68%, driven by renewable energy expansion, energy efficiency improvements, and innovative technologies. In 2023, renewables accounted for 24% of energy production, and final energy consumption fell by 2% compared to 2014, despite a 38% GDP increase. Yet, challenges persist, including insufficient adaptation to climate risks, limited progress in phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, and uneven attention to just transition measures for vulnerable communities.To bridge these gaps, the EU must accelerate renewable energy deployment, streamline permitting processes, and enhance cross-border energy infrastructure. The Clean Industrial Deal offers incentives for clean tech manufacturing, while the Affordable Energy Action Plan aims to lower energy costs for citizens and businesses. Investments in grid modernization, energy storage, and carbon capture technologies are crucial to support a decarbonized, resilient energy system. Additionally, mobilizing private capital and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies will unlock resources for sustainable innovation. The NECPs highlight the importance of regional cooperation and public engagement to ensure a just transition. While Member States have improved consultation processes, more inclusive and transparent approaches are needed to involve all stakeholders. By aligning national strategies with EU goals, the bloc can reduce its dependence on external energy sources, strengthen industrial competitiveness, and build a sustainable future. The path to 2050 is challenging but achievable, with the NECPs serving as a roadmap for a cleaner, more autonomous, and prosperous Europe. Like and share to spread awareness! #EUClimateAction #CleanEnergy #Sustainability #EnergyTransition #ClimateNeutral2050 #RenewableEnergy #GreenEurope See Less OUTLINE: 00:00:00 EU Climate Ambition Introduction 00:00:57 Framework and Targets 00:01:42 Achievements and Challenges 00:02:16 Solutions and Future Path

Who Really Wins in the 2025 EU US Trade Deal

Explore the landmark 2025 EU-US trade deal announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump in Scotland. This documentary-style video unpacks the complex agreement that sets tariffs on European goods at 15%, while retaining 50% tariffs on aluminum and steel. Discover how the EU commits to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy and military equipment, alongside $600 billion in investments, balancing economic stability with strategic compromises. Through compelling visuals—ranging from the Scottish landscapes to bustling steel mills and LNG facilities—this analysis highlights the deal’s impact on transatlantic trade, industries, and geopolitical dynamics. Dive into the nuanced debate: who truly benefits from this intricate agreement? Like and share if you find this trade breakdown insightful! #EUUSTradeDeal #TransatlanticTrade #EconomicPolicy #TradeAgreement #GlobalEconomy

Future Proofing Europe's Electricity Grid

Discover how anticipatory investments are transforming Europe’s electricity grid for a sustainable future! This video delves into the European Commission's groundbreaking Guidance on proactive grid development to meet the energy needs of tomorrow. With significant funding of approximately €1.2 trillion required by 2040, we explore the urgency of these investments in integrating renewable energy sources and enhancing grid reliability. Uncover the key recommendations for effective network planning, regulatory support, and equitable cost allocation, all aimed at modernizing the grid to support Europe’s ambitious climate goals. Join us as we highlight the challenges and opportunities ahead in creating a resilient energy system for over 400 million customers across 32 countries. Conclusion

The European Commission’s Guidance on anticipatory investments marks a turning point in the evolution of Europe’s electricity grid. By prioritizing forward-looking network planning, robust regulatory oversight, and equitable cost allocation, the EU is laying the groundwork for a grid that can support its ambitious energy and climate goals. With €1.2 trillion in investments needed by 2040, the stakes are high, but so are the rewards. A modern, resilient, and sustainable grid will not only power over 400 million customers but also drive Europe’s transition to a cleaner, more competitive, and energy-secure future. As EU countries, NRAs, and system operators begin to implement these recommendations, the vision of a future-proof electricity network is within reach, promising benefits for generations to come.

Anticipatory Investments for a Resilient and Future-Proof European Electricity Grid

The European electricity grid, a single phase-locked 50 Hz mains frequency system, is a marvel of modern engineering, supplying over 400 million customers across 32 countries, including most of the European Union (EU). This interconnected network is the backbone of Europe’s energy system, enabling the flow of electricity to homes, industries, and institutions. However, as the EU accelerates its transition toward a decarbonized economy, the grid faces unprecedented challenges, including significant delays in development and increasing connection times. To address these issues and align with the EU’s ambitious energy and climate goals, the European Commission has introduced a Guidance document on anticipatory investments for developing forward-looking electricity networks. With an estimated €730 billion needed for distribution and €477 billion for transmission grid developments by 2040, this initiative is a critical step toward ensuring a resilient, affordable, and sustainable energy future for Europe.

The Need for Anticipatory Investments

Anticipatory investments represent a proactive approach to grid development, moving beyond reactive responses to existing connection requests from generation or demand projects. These investments focus on medium- and long-term needs, as identified in national and EU-level network development plans, to support the integration of renewable energy, enhance grid reliability, and meet decarbonization targets. Unlike traditional investments, which address immediate demands, anticipatory investments prepare the grid for future growth, such as the rollout of renewable acceleration areas or offshore wind development zones. Examples include grid reinforcements, preparatory works for substation expansions, and the installation of spare cable tubes to accommodate future capacity increases. By anticipating future needs, these investments aim to reduce delays, lower costs over time, and ensure the grid can support Europe’s clean energy transition.

The urgency of anticipatory investments stems from the current bottlenecks in grid development. As Europe pushes to decarbonize its economy, the demand for renewable energy integration is surging, but grid infrastructure has struggled to keep pace. Lengthy permitting processes, insufficient planning, and underinvestment have led to prolonged connection times, slowing the deployment of renewable energy projects. The 2023 EU Action Plan for Grids and the Action Plan for Affordable Energy underscored the need for a forward-looking approach to grid development, culminating in the 2024 Electricity Market Design reform, which explicitly included anticipatory investments in the EU regulatory framework. The Commission’s Guidance document builds on these efforts, offering a roadmap for EU countries, National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs), and system operators to create the conditions for strategic grid investments.

Key Recommendations of the Guidance Document

The Guidance document outlines concrete recommendations in three main areas: network planning, regulatory scrutiny, and costs and incentives. These recommendations are designed to ensure that grid investments are future-proof, cost-effective, and aligned with the EU’s energy and climate objectives.

1. Network Planning

Effective network planning is the foundation of anticipatory investments. The Guidance emphasizes the need for robust scenarios that account for future electricity demand and generation, incorporating insights from National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and broader EU energy strategies. Planning periods should extend far enough into the future to capture long-term needs, and stakeholders—such as renewable energy developers, industrial consumers, and local communities—should be involved early in the process to ensure their needs are addressed. This collaborative approach helps align grid development with the evolving energy landscape, including the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

2. Regulatory Scrutiny

National Regulatory Authorities play a critical role in evaluating and approving anticipatory investments. The Guidance recommends that NRAs be equipped with sufficient expertise and resources to assess network development plans, including those at the distribution level. A stable and balanced regulatory framework is essential to provide certainty for project promoters while protecting consumers from undue costs. The document proposes a two-step approval process to accelerate grid projects while minimizing risks: the first step focuses on design and permitting, and the second on construction. Once investments are approved, their remuneration should not be retroactively challenged, even if initial asset utilization is lower than anticipated. This stability encourages investment by reducing financial uncertainty for operators.

3. Costs and Incentives

The allocation of costs and risks is a critical consideration for anticipatory investments. The Guidance suggests that risks related to the future utilization of grid assets should be clearly defined in advance to provide clarity for investors. Network tariffs and connection charges should reflect both existing grid capacity and planned investments, incentivizing new generation and demand projects to connect in areas where the grid is prepared or will soon be ready. Additionally, the document highlights the potential role of State guarantees or public budgets to cover costs associated with accelerating decarbonization and market integration, provided they comply with EU regulatory frameworks and state aid rules. This approach ensures that the financial burden of anticipatory investments is shared equitably, maintaining affordability for consumers and competitiveness for industries.

Broader Implications and Next Steps

The Guidance document is a pivotal step toward modernizing Europe’s electricity grid, but its success depends on effective implementation by EU countries and NRAs. The Commission has called on these stakeholders to incorporate the recommendations into national frameworks for network planning, tariff methodologies, and regulatory approvals. To support this process, the Commission is preparing the European Grids Package, set to be released by the end of 2025, with a public consultation open until August 5, 2025. This package will further strengthen network planning and provide additional tools to address grid development challenges.

The development of the Guidance document itself reflects extensive stakeholder engagement. Discussions at the Copenhagen Infrastructure Forum, targeted consultations, and workshops in Brussels, combined with input from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) and the Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER), have ensured that the recommendations are grounded in practical insights and industry expertise. This collaborative approach underscores the EU’s commitment to building a grid that is not only technically robust but also inclusive and forward-thinking.

Challenges and Opportunities

While anticipatory investments offer significant opportunities, they also come with challenges. The scale of investment required—€1.2 trillion by 2040—is substantial, and securing funding without overburdening consumers or industries will require careful balancing. Additionally, the complexity of coordinating grid development across 32 countries, each with its own regulatory and market structures, poses logistical challenges. However, these hurdles are outweighed by the opportunities: a modernized grid will accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, enhance energy security, and support Europe’s industrial competitiveness by ensuring reliable and affordable electricity.

Moreover, anticipatory investments align with broader EU priorities, including the European Green Deal and the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. By preparing the grid for future needs, the EU can avoid costly retrofits, reduce connection delays, and create a more resilient energy system capable of withstanding the demands of a decarbonized economy.

Fully end EU dependency on Russian energy

The EU has dropped its share of Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%, thanks to the REPowerEU Plan, launched in May 2022 to reduce the EU’s dependency on Russian energy. 

However, the EU saw a rebound in Russian gas imports in 2024. The European Commission has therefore presented a roadmap to ensure the EU fully ends its dependency on Russian energy, while ensuring stable energy supplies and prices across the EU. 

The roadmap will see a gradual removal of Russian oil, gas and nuclear energy from the EU markets in a coordinated and secure manner as the EU transitions to clean energy. EU countries will prepare national plans by the end of 2025 setting out how they will contribute to phasing out imports of Russian gas, nuclear energy and oil. At the same time, efforts will continue to accelerate the EU’s energy transition and diversify energy supplies to eliminate risks to the security of supply and market stability. 

The roadmap includes measures to 

gas:

stop all imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027 by improving the transparency, monitoring and traceability of Russian gas across the EU markets. New contracts with suppliers of Russian gas will be prevented and spot contracts (for immediate payment) will be stopped by the end of 2025.

oil: 

take fresh action to address Russia's ‘shadow fleet’ (vessels employed by Russia to evade sanctions) transporting oil

nuclear: 

restrict new supply contracts co-signed by the Euratom Supply Agency for uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials deriving from Russia 

By phasing out Russian energy, the REPowerEU roadmap will reduce the security risks the EU is facing. It will also contribute to the economic plan set out by the Competitiveness Compass, the Clean Industrial Deal and the Affordable energy action plan. 

A cleaner and independent energy system helps boost the economy while also making a huge contribution to Europe's decarbonisation ambitions. The Commission will put forward legislative proposals to support the roadmap next month. 

How to remove a dam.

Dear Spain,

Better utilization of engineering and modeling expertise in advance of the flash floods in eastern Spain over the past week could have reduced the devastation. The climate hoax can now be with the other long list of any government/UN hoaxs. 

Spain destroyed more than 256 dams between 2021 and 2022, "to restore the natural course of rivers", to comply with UN Agenda 2030.

Valencia suffered from a flood in October 1957, known as the Great Flood of Valencia, which resulted in significant damage to property and caused the deaths of 81 people. This flood was mainly caused by the overtopping of the River Turia which was then diverted in 1969 to avoid the centre of the city. During floods, most of the river water is now diverted southwards along a new route that borders the city. 

Spain, like many countries have removed dams as part of an EU directive see https://damremoval.eu/ It’s true that removing dams can sometimes lead to increased flood risks in areas downstream, particularly if those dams were originally constructed to control water flow and mitigate flooding. 

Dams allow for the irrigation of land and crops, enabling people to be self-sufficient, which goes against the Agenda 2030. But no, the flooding is a result of "climate change". All of the EU has committed to "Agenda 2030." 

But if I were the leader of any EU country and the UN asked me to destroy its dams to advance some nebulous climate agenda, I’d tell the UN to go fornicate itself with a cactus.

Sincerely,

citizen of Croatia, citizen of Europe

PS. za moju Hrvatsku.

Prvo bi rekao da naši stari nisu bili glupi i da su znali što rade. Dobar primjer je izgradnja akvedukta koja je započela u svrhu opskrbe vodom grada Rima te trajala sljedećih 500 godina, tijekom kojih je sagrađeno ukupno 11 akvedukata. 

Puno primjera je i iz Hrvatske prošlosti, gdje se gradnjom riječnih brana i usmjeravanjem rijeka dolazilo do pitke vode i  plodnih polja. Kako pri samoj gradnji brana, tako i kod rušenje istih, neovisno o tome jesu li zaštićena područja ili ne, u prirodi se treba ponašati u skladu s nekakvim pravilima. Svaki zahvat u prirodi je i dalje zahvat, stoga je potrebno proći sve procedure, napraviti studiju utjecaja na okoliš, tehničku dokumentaciju o izvođenju radova. Monitoring se treba provoditi cijelo vrijeme nakon izvođenja radova kako bi se eko sustav stabilizirao. 

Moramo paziti na sedrene barijere, na zaštićene vrste, kao i na to da se obala prilagodi novom vodotoku. Generalno, moramo voditi računa o tome kakvog će utjecaja zahvat imati na okolinu. U sklopu takvih radova, često dođe do zamućivanja vode. Tek tad možemo dobiti neke referentne rezultate i zaključiti jesu li akcije rušenja, sada već stoljetnih brana, bile uspješne.

BRICS currency

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin unveils BRICS prototype currency. Putin was seen holding a mock-up of the “BRICS bill,” featuring the flags of the five member nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – interconnected in a circle.

One of the primary issues with the “BRICS Bill” lies in its inconsistent representation of member nations. For instance, the bill features Pashto text referring to the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” (the Taliban regime), yet it bears the flag of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Since the Taliban regime is not internationally recognised and has limited diplomatic acceptance, this inconsistency highlights the challenges of unifying such diverse nations under a single currency framework. Additionally, many BRICS members, including India and South Africa, are reluctant to formally engage with unrecognised governments, further complicating the bill’s acceptance.

Using the “BRICS Bill” for economic exchanges would introduce significant limitations for member states, many of which are not the most economically powerful. Forcing reliance on a shared currency would hinder BRICS countries’ ability to freely trade with non-member states. This limitation is exacerbated by the bloc’s ongoing efforts to reduce dependency on the US dollar while simultaneously maintaining global trade relations. According to the Johannesburg Declaration, BRICS nations are exploring mechanisms to increase trade in local currencies, but the creation of a shared currency remains a distant goal.

A major concern among BRICS nations is the potential destabilisation of national currencies. If a shared “BRICS Bill” were to be introduced, it could lead to inflation and depreciation of national currencies, especially for smaller economies like South Africa or Brazil. A potential decline in the value of national currencies would negatively impact economic stability, making the adoption of a shared currency an unattractive option.

Despite the challenges surrounding the “BRICS Bill,” discussions about creating a digital BRICS currency are gaining momentum. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been a vocal advocate for a digital currency to facilitate trade among BRICS nations without replacing national currencies. However, even this idea faces significant hurdles, including the logistical complexities of implementing a digital currency across a diverse bloc of nations. It remains to be seen whether a digital BRICS currency will materialise, but discussions on the topic are still in the early stages.

Adopting a shared “BRICS Bill” could lead to negative consequences from Western countries, including the imposition of sanctions and higher tariffs. BRICS’ growing influence is already viewed as a challenge to Western financial dominance, particularly in light of the bloc’s ongoing expansion. Introducing a shared currency could escalate tensions and lead to economic retaliation from key global players like the US and the European Union. Such risks have led BRICS leaders to exercise caution when considering a shared financial instrument.

The BRICS Bill is more symbolic than practical, and adopting it as a currency would likely harm member states’ economies by destabilizing national currencies and reducing economic independence.

Europe’s shift to a low-carbon future

Around three-quarters of the EU’s total population live in cities and suburban areas, and this proportion is projected to increase. Cities are also responsible for a large proportion of carbon emissions. The dynamism and density of cities mean that they have great potential to become models for low-carbon lifestyles. Urban prosumers can make a critical contribution to decarbonizing their communities.

Municipalities can support prosumers by providing publicly owned spaces or encouraging other private buildings or landowners to offer spaces that can be used for citizen-led energy generation. These can include rooftops of schools, hospitals, apartments, or unused lands which can be used to install solar panels or other renewable energy technologies. Local authorities can also offer targeted financial incentives for companies to promote citizen participation and encourage public involvement in energy planning. Municipalities can also act as information hubs and contribute to building the right skills to help those interested in installing renewables.

Each city is unique but they have some common attributes that establish a setting for prosumption that is distinct from more rural areas, for example:

Establishing prosumption in cities is more challenging than in rural areas because of the limited space available for energy generation and the more complex arrangements for the ownership of surfaces (such as rooftops in apartment blocks).

Cities are more densely populated than rural areas, making rooftop solar technology the renewable technology of choice. High population densities also make heat grids more profitable, offering the potential to develop prosumer initiatives related to heat grids in cities.

More people live in apartment blocks, which opens opportunities for collective action but makes it harder to coordinate investment.

Short travel distances make cities ideal for using electric vehicles, both private and public. Urban prosumer concepts are more likely to involve coupling with mobility.

Cities can offer opportunities for developing integrated energy districts, for example, when areas within a city are redeveloped or new areas are added.

Generating electricity outside the city (off-site generation) opens up possibilities for prosumers to overcome the lack of space.

Prosumers of renewable energy can make a critical contribution to decarbonizing their communities. Prosumers are defined as entities — individuals, households, small or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), or institutions — that actively participate in the energy system. Active participation can be through self-generating renewable heat or power, and also through providing energy system services such as demand flexibility and energy storage services, enabling larger amounts of intermittent wind and solar energy to be integrated into the system. Prosumers can act as individuals (e.g. a single household) or as part of a collective (e.g. a block of apartments or an energy community). A comprehensive overview of prosumers and the different models of prosumption is available in the recent EEA report Energy prosumers in Europe: citizen participation in the energy transition (EEA, 2022b).

Each city is unique, with its own characteristics and solutions. However, cities have some common attributes that establish a setting for prosumption that is distinct from the setting in more rural areas. For example:

Cities are more densely populated than rural areas, making rooftop solar technology the renewable technology of choice rather than technologies that require open space, such as wind turbines. The higher population density of cities also makes heat grids more profitable than in rural areas, thus offering the potential to develop prosumer initiatives related to heat grids in cities.

More people live in apartment blocks in cities. This makes it harder to coordinate investment since it requires agreement among several people with different interests and financial capabilities.

Short travel distances make cities ideal for using electric vehicles, both private and public. Urban prosumer concepts are thus more likely to involve coupling between the energy and mobility sectors, for example in the form of onsite renewable energy plants delivering power for charging electric vehicles.

Cities can offer opportunities for developing integrated energy districts, for example when areas within a city are redeveloped or new areas are added. Integrated energy districts often use a variety of energy technologies and are used by a variety of interconnected sectors.

Apartment blocks have a smaller rooftop area per inhabitant than houses. Depending on the architecture and height of the buildings, shadowing effects from neighboring buildings may also limit the area of a rooftop that is suitable for solar photovoltaic (PV) energy generation. At the same time, a high population density will mean a high energy demand close to the point of energy generation, minimizing transmission losses. This combination of relatively low generation potential and high energy demand highlights the importance of maximizing the use of suitable rooftops for energy generation in cities.

However, organizing investment for a joint PV plant or implementing collective self-consumption in an apartment block is significantly more complicated than doing so in a single-family home. Different ownership structures and country-specific regulations mean that problems and challenges vary. In all cases, however, the relevant parties must discuss and agree on a specific approach to organizing investment in and the operation of the rooftop system. The collaborative nature of this model can have positive effects on the community, although it can also pose a barrier to prosumer projects if agreements cannot be reached. An alternative to collaborative investment is to lease the rooftop to a third-party operator and for apartment block owners to receive some of the energy generated in lieu of lease payments.

Outside the scope of municipalities, national housing policies have an important impact on the deployment of rooftop PV energy systems in apartment blocks. Decision-making and access to finance may be easier when the building is owned by a single entity rather than multiple private owners. Therefore, countries with high shares of social housing, housing associations, or large landlords might make more progress in this regard than countries with lower shares.

The possibility of generating electricity in one location and consuming it elsewhere, known as an offsite generation, enables many citizens to become prosumers irrespective of the space they have available. Virtual net metering is one option used in offsite prosumption models. With virtual net metering, prosumers can generate electricity outside the city (e.g. at a second home or as part of an energy community) and inject this electricity into the grid. The prosumers then get a discount on their household energy bills based on the energy generated. National regulation should support offsite prosumption concepts. However, as offsite prosumption requires the use of the national electricity grid, grid fees and other related costs must be taken into account and covered by the offsite generation project.

In an integrated energy district (often a newly built or converted area), inhabitants can actively participate in a local energy system that integrates electricity, heating, and mobility. As a simplified example, an integrated energy district can generate its own renewable energy, providing electricity to the community, for instance by providing charging points for a local electric car-sharing scheme. At the same time, it can power a small district heating network supplemented with heat pumps. This integration between different sectors is sometimes referred to as ‘sector coupling’.

The concrete implementation and ownership arrangements necessarily differ between districts, depending on local conditions and the participants involved[1]. For example, an energy cooperative could invest in and operate the energy system. Alternatively, a commercial entity could manage the energy aspect of the district and offer inhabitants the option to get involved when they move into the area.

In integrated energy districts, citizens can participate as advisers, idea providers, and discussion partners during the development process if the community’s planning and development approach allows this. Furthermore, citizens can act as investors, contributing their own money, time, labor, skills, and expertise. This could happen in different ‘legal’ or regulatory settings such as working groups, initiatives, associations, cooperatives, or as part of private non-profit or for-profit organizations.

Cities can play a very important role in enabling prosumption, even if the main relevant laws and regulatory frameworks are set at a national level.

Cities often own public buildings (e.g. schools, sports facilities, administrative buildings) and dominate shares of public companies (e.g. housing associations or local utility providers), as well as owning land areas within the city. Thus, municipalities can use their own buildings for prosumption or allocate unused lands, such as brownfield land or railway margins, to local energy communities for energy generation. They can encourage publicly owned companies to initiate and invest in collective prosumer models (Becker et al., 2017). In the case of private companies, municipal governments can use their convening power to bring key local stakeholders together and — possibly — initiate memoranda of understanding with the same aim.

Municipal authorities can set up their own support schemes when such approaches are deemed desirable and compatible with national law. This could be in the form of direct financial support for projects or indirect support through tax relief. They could also procure locally produced electricity and increase the visibility of citizen-led projects and initiatives (Haf and Robison, 2020).

In addition, municipalities can set requirements or terms and conditions for awarding energy infrastructure concessions to companies or initiatives that enable citizens to participate in decision-making processes.

Municipalities are usually responsible for many energy-related decisions. Integrated energy planning and management are often central tasks of municipalities, in collaboration with regional and national authorities. Through the development of dedicated masterplans and strategies, municipalities can lay down their ambitions for the energy transformation, make it clear who is accountable for progress and clarify what the role of citizens should be in the decarbonization process. Critically, the development of these local masterplans should involve citizens, in a participatory process, so that inhabitants, as important stakeholders, are consulted and can express their opinions (Judson et al., 2020).

For citizens to take an active role in local planning, municipal authorities need to be approachable, with an open-door policy, and adopt participative governance strategies (Haf and Robison, 2020). In addition, a framework for cooperation among local stakeholders, such as municipalities, energy communities, energy utility providers and citizens, should be put in place.

Developing and implementing prosumer concepts often requires high levels of expertise and specialist knowledge in many different areas. Information is usually dispersed across several stakeholders. Actor constellations and interactions are often unique, which might lead to considerable transaction costs for aspiring prosumers. This is particularly true in cities, where becoming a prosumer tends to be more complicated than in rural areas.

As highlighted in the REPowerEU plan and its EU solar strategy, a key action for incentivizing prosumption is to set up one-stop shops that give citizens impartial advice and practical help on roof renovations, solar generation, and energy storage in an integrated manner, covering everything from the technical requirements to the administrative steps and financial support available. Local and regional authorities, and their implementing institutions, such as energy or business support agencies, are well suited to this task, functioning as aggregators of information and facilitators and helping to bring stakeholders together (Bale et al., 2012).

Finally, cities can contribute to addressing the skills shortage, which is becoming an increasingly important barrier to the deployment of prosumer and energy efficiency projects. Adapting vocational training to current needs usually depends on the actions of national or regional authorities, and is constrained by educational regulatory frameworks. Nevertheless, cities can help to ensure that existing skills are put to good use by providing incentives for suitably qualified people to set up businesses. Incentives could include subsidizing workshop space and providing local tax breaks. Municipal authorities can also join the Pact for Skills large-scale skills partnership, as encouraged by the REPowerEU plan.