Kina - od kopiranja do inovacije

Većina ljudi još uvijek nosi u glavi sliku Kine iz prije petnaestak godina: golema tvornica svijeta, jeftina radna snaga, masovna proizvodnja i kopije tuđih proizvoda. Ta verzija Kine je nestala. U posljednjem desetljeću Kina se transformirala iz zemlje koja kopira tehnologiju u zemlju koja dominira globalnim inovacijama. Prema izvješću Svjetske organizacije za intelektualno vlasništvo (WIPO) za 2024. godinu, Kina je podnijela 1,8 milijuna patentnih prijava – gotovo polovinu svih patenata na svijetu (49,1 % globalnog udjela), što je više nego tri puta više od Sjedinjenih Država.

Ova promjena nije samo statistička. Ona se vidi u tamnim tvornicama (dark factories) koje rade 24/7 bez svjetla jer nema ljudi, u napretku torijskih nuklearnih reaktora, u lunarnoj ambiciji, humanoidnim robotima koji izvode kung fu na nacionalnoj televiziji te u AI modelima koji su izazvali paniku u Hollywoodu. Ovaj moj post istražuje te ključne proboje koje zapadni mediji često previđaju i analizira što oni znače za poduzetnike: tko su novi milijarderi, gdje leže prilike u lancima opskrbe i zašto pozicioniranje u Hong Kongu ili Singapuru može biti najpametniji poslovni potez danas.

Pomak u patentima – od kopiranja do dominacije

Prije samo desetak godina Kina je bila poznata po "reverse engineeringu" i masovnoj proizvodnji. Danas je situacija obrnuta. Kineski ured za intelektualno vlasništvo (CNIPA) primio je 2024. godine 1,8 milijuna prijava izuma, što čini gotovo polovinu svih svjetskih patentnih prijava. Kina vodi i u međunarodnim prijavama, a kineske tvrtke (kao Huawei) zauzimaju vodeće pozicije među najvećim podnositeljima patenata u Europi i svijetu.

Ovaj pomak nije slučajan. Državna strategija "Made in China 2025" i masovna ulaganja u istraživanje i razvoj (R&D) pretvorila su Kinu u inovacijskog diva. Patentni sustav više nije samo zaštita, već oružje u globalnoj tehnološkoj utrci. Kina sada ne samo da proizvodi – ona definira standarde u električnim vozilima, obnovljivoj energiji, AI-ju i robotici.

Proboji o kojima se malo govori

Kineski napredak vidljiv je u više revolucionarnih područja:

• Tamne tvornice (dark factories): Potpuno automatizirane tvornice, posebno u automobilskoj industriji (npr. Zeekr), rade bez ljudske prisutnosti, 24 sata dnevno. Roboti i AI upravljaju proizvodnjom, smanjuju troškove i povećavaju efikasnost do razine koju Zapad teško dostiže. Ovo omogućuje Kinu da dominira u EV sektoru i šire.
• Torijska nuklearna energija: Kineski eksperimentalni torijski rastopljeni solni reaktor (TMSR-LF1) u provinciji Gansu postigao je ključne prekretnice – uključujući dodavanje torija u radni reaktor i konverziju torija u uranij-233. Torij je obilan u Kini i mogao bi osigurati energiju za tisuće godina, s manje otpada i većom sigurnošću od tradicionalnih reaktora.
• Lunarna ambicija: Kina je već izvela prve uzorke s tamne strane Mjeseca (Chang'e-6, 2024.), a planira slijetanje astronauta do 2030. godine. Ovo nije samo prestiž – već korak prema lunarnoj ekonomiji i resursima.
• Humanoidni roboti: Tvrtke poput Unitree pokazale su na Spring Festival Galau 2026. humanoidne robote (G1 model) koji autonomno izvode kung fu, akrobacije i sinkronizirane pokrete. Ovo demonstrira napredak u "embodied AI" – robotima koji se kreću i uče u stvarnom svijetu.
• AI modeli: ByteDanceov Seedance 2.0 i modeli poput DeepSeek generiraju filmsku kvalitetu videa iz teksta, uključujući dijaloge i efekte, što je izazvalo paniku u Hollywoodu zbog prijetnje filmskoj industriji. Kineski AI često dolazi jeftinije i brže, koristeći otvorene modele i masovne podatke.
• Medicinski proboji: Kineski timovi uspješno su "izliječili" tip 1 dijabetes kod pacijenata koristeći matične stanice reprogramirane iz vlastitih masnih stanica pacijenta. Jedna pacijentica nije trebala inzulin više od godinu dana nakon transplantacije.
• Kvantno računarstvo: Prototipovi poput Zuchongzhi 3.0 i Jiuzhang serije postižu "kvantnu supremaciju" – rješavaju zadatke koji bi klasičnim superračunalima trebali duže od doba svemira.

Ovi proboji pokazuju da Kina više ne prati – ona predvodi u ključnim tehnologijama budućnosti.

Što to znači za tebe (poduzetnika)?

Ova transformacija mijenja globalnu ekonomiju. Troškovi proizvodnje padaju zahvaljujući automatizaciji, energija postaje jeftinija i čišća, a AI i roboti omogućuju nove poslovne modele. Poduzetnici koji ignoriraju Kinu riskiraju zaostajanje.

Drugi poduzetnici – novi milijarderi

Umjesto tradicionalnih tvorničkih magnata, novi kineski milijarderi dolaze iz AI-ja, robotike i kvantnih tehnologija. Osnivači DeepSeeka, MiniMaxa, Unitreeja i sličnih tvrtki brzo ulaze u klub milijardera zahvaljujući IPO-ovima i ulaganjima. Ovi mladi tehnički talenti (često iz Tsinghua ili sličnih sveučilišta) grade kompanije koje izazivaju OpenAI i Nvidia. Oni su dokaz da inovacija + državna podrška + masovno tržište stvaraju nove bogataše brže nego ikad.

Zašto se sve kreće tako brzo?

Brzina dolazi iz kombinacije faktora: masovnih državnih ulaganja, vertikalno integriranih lanaca opskrbe, ogromnog domaćeg tržišta za testiranje, talentirane radne snage u STEM-u i manje regulativnih prepreka u nekim područjima. Dok Zapad raspravlja o etici AI-ja, Kina ga primjenjuje u proizvodnji, medicini i svemiru. "China Plus One" strategija (diverzifikacija lanaca) prelazi u "China Plus Many", gdje Kina ostaje jezgra, a regija se povezuje oko nje.

Što sve ovo znaći za Republiku Hrvatsku?!

Preklapanja su ograničena, ali postoje u nekoliko konkretnih područja. Hrvatska je mala EU članica s ograničenim izravnim utjecajem na kineske inovacije, no može se pozicionirati kao periferni igrač u kineskim lancima opskrbe i zelenoj tranziciji.

1. Infrastruktura i logistika (najjače preklapanje)

• Pelješki most — najpoznatiji kineski projekt u Hrvatskoj. Izgradila ga je kineska kompanija China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), financiran uglavnom EU sredstvima. To je simbol suradnje unutar EU pravila i pokazao je da kineske tvrtke mogu konkurentno graditi u Europi.
• Hrvatske Luke: Kineski ulagači (npr. Luxury Real Estate) imaju većinski udio u Zadarskoj luci (kontejnerski i kruzerski dio). Postoje projekti u Ploče (bulk terminal) i interes za diverzifikaciju kineskih dobara iz Kopra prema hrvatskim lukama na Jadranu. Hrvatska se tako može uključiti u Maritime Silk Road (dio Belt and Road Initiative) kao logistički hub za Srednju i Istočnu Europu.
• Hrvatska Željeznica i ceste: Kineske tvrtke (CRBC) sudjeluju u natječajima za hrvatske željezničke i cestovne projekte (npr. Dugo Selo – Novska). Hrvatska planira ulaganja od oko 6 milijardi eura u željeznicu do 2030.

2. Zelena energija i torijska nuklearna energija

• Vjetroelektrana Senj (156 MW) — najveća kineska investicija u Hrvatskoj do sada (Norinco International, završena 2021., vrijednost oko 230 milijuna eura). Primjer suradnje u obnovljivim izvorima.
• Postoje razgovori o daljnjoj suradnji u zelenoj energiji, uključujući solarne projekte i općenito zelenu tranziciju.
• Torij — nema direktne suradnje. Hrvatska nema torijski program, a energija se oslanja na obnovljive izvore, plin i uvoz. Međutim, jeftina kineska čista energija (uključujući torij u budućnosti) mogla bi indirektno utjecati na cijene električne energije u Europi i hrvatsku industriju.

3. Trgovina i lanci opskrbe

• Bilateralna trgovina raste: 2023. oko 2,53 milijarde USD, s velikim hrvatskim deficitom. Kina izvozi strojeve, elektroniku, čelik; Hrvatska izvozi prerađeno drvo, prehrambene proizvode (vino, Vegeta, tuna, med), mramor i specijalna vozila.
• Hrvatska može biti dobavljač sirovina ili komponenti za kineske lance opskrbe (npr. drvo za ambalažu ili specijalizirane dijelove), ali nije ključni igrač.
• Kineski izvoz u Hrvatsku rastao je značajno (npr. +52% u veljači 2026. u odnosu na prethodnu godinu).

4. Tehnologija, AI, roboti i patenti

• Preklapanja su minimalna. Hrvatska ima male, ali rastuće tvrtke u robotici i automatizaciji (npr. AIR-RMLD – dronovi, Optimus Drive – industrijska automatizacija, Romb Technologies – navigacija za AGV/AMR, Visor – machine vision). Neke od njih već izvoze u Kinu ili surađuju s kineskim partnerima.
• Nema značajnih zajedničkih projekata u AI-ju, humanoidnim robotima ili kvantnom računarstvu. Hrvatska ima nisku razinu patenata u advanced tehnologijama u usporedbi s EU prosjekom.
• Medicinski proboji (npr. dijabetes) — nema poznate suradnje.

5. Poduzetničke prilike i pozicioniranje (Hong Kong / Singapur)

• Za hrvatske poduzetnike: Male izravne prilike. Bolje je koristiti EU fondove + kineske partnere za infrastrukturu i zelenu energiju.
• Hong Kong i Singapur nisu direktno relevantni za Hrvatsku (Hrvatska nema posebne veze s njima kao gateway-ima prema Kini). Umjesto toga, hrvatske tvrtke mogu koristiti Zagreb ili Rijeku kao logističke točke, ali bolje je razmišljati o suradnji preko većih EU hubova.
• Potencijal leži u nišama: izvoz hrvatskih prehrambenih proizvoda na kinesko tržište, turizam (kineski turisti), ili partnerstva u drvenoj industriji i obnovljivim izvorima.

Realna slika za Hrvatsku

Hrvatska je više korisnik kineske infrastrukture i investicija (most, vjetropark, luke) nego partner u visokotehnološkim probojima iz eseja. Suradnja je selektivna, uravnotežena s EU pravilima („de-risking“) i usmjerena na infrastrukturu i zelenu energiju.

Najveće prilike za hrvatske poduzetnike:

• Sudjelovanje u kineskim logističkim lancima preko jadranskih luka.
• Partnerstva u obnovljivoj energiji.
• Izvoz nišnih proizvoda (hrana, drvo) na kinesko tržište.
• Praćenje kineskih tehnologija (jeftini roboti, AI alati) za modernizaciju vlastite male industrije.

Zaključak

Kina više nije samo "tvornica svijeta" – ona je postala laboratorij budućnosti. Od tamnih tvornica i torijske energije do humanoidnih robota i AI-ja koji mijenja Hollywood, ovi proboji preoblikuju globalnu konkurenciju. Za poduzetnike to znači prilike u lancima opskrbe (komponente za EV, robotiku, energiju), partnerstvima s kineskim inovatorima i pristupu novim tržištima.

Hong Kong i Singapur idealne su točke za pozicioniranje: Hong Kong kao super-konektor s pristupom Greater Bay Area, niskim porezima, jakim pravnim sustavom i CEPA sporazumima za bescarinski pristup Kini; Singapur kao hub za financije, logistiku i AI, s rastućim kineskim ulaganjima. Odatle možete pratiti kineske lance opskrbe, privlačiti talente i skalirati poslovanje bez izravnog ulaska u kontinentalnu Kinu.

Stara slika Kine je prošlost. Nova realnost je brža, inovativnija i puna prilika – za one koji su spremni vidjeti je i djelovati. Poduzetnici koji se danas pozicioniraju u Aziji mogu biti dio sljedećeg vala milijardera i transformacija. Vrijeme je za akciju, jer Kina ne čeka.

Željko Serdar, HCOIE

Hong Kong carbon emissions

 

Hong Kong aims to slash its carbon emissions to 50 percent of its 2005 levels by 2035. This target includes ending coal use for daily electricity generation, promoting electric vehicles, and achieving zero landfill use, all as part of the city’s broader plan to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

Industry leaders said on Friday that the government should streamline approval procedures, allow more pilot projects, and offer more financial support, all of which would accelerate investment and help reduce costs. The InnoTech Forum was hosted by InvestHK, the government department tasked with promoting foreign investment in the city.

Senior executives from across the energy supply chain in Hong Kong have called for more support to accelerate the development of the city’s hydrogen ecosystem.

“If the government can come up with a code of practice and standards applicable to hydrogen projects in Hong Kong in the future, it will make it easier for companies that want to invest in the sector,” said Norman Cheng, business development director at Veolia Hong Kong. A clear road map of where hydrogen development is going “would also enhance the confidence of investors”, he added.

Veolia, a global company involved in the management of water, waste and energy resources, has joined with gas distributor Hong Kong and China Gas (Towngas) to develop Hong Kong’s first green hydrogen project at the South East New Territories Landfill Extension in Tseung Kwan O. It will capture and turn landfill gas into hydrogen to supply energy while preventing emission of the highly potent greenhouse gas.

A slow approval process is one of the “pain points” for companies interested in deploying hydrogen demonstration projects in Hong Kong, said Shao Ruizhe, assistant president with China State Construction Engineering (Hong Kong).

“We hope that as hydrogen energy technology matures in the future, the approval time can be shortened,” he said, adding that approval for a project the company is involved in took about a year.

His company has partnered with Hong Kong Nation-Synergy International Hydrogen Power Technology and Sinopec (Hong Kong) on a pilot project to generate electricity from hydrogen and supply it to a construction-site office at the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park in Lok Ma Chau.

Hong Kong Nation-Synergy is part of Zhejiang province-based Sino-Synergy Hydrogen Energy Technology (Jiaxing), which makes fuel-cell engines. Sinopec (Hong Kong), part of China’s largest petroleum fuel producer China Petroleum & Chemical, runs a network of petrol stations in the city and is building the city’s first hydrogen refuelling station.

The Hong Kong government should set up more hydrogen demonstration projects, said Cynthia Zhu Zheyu, CEO of Sinosynergy International, which oversees Sino-Synergy’s Hong Kong and overseas business.

At least 14 pilot projects by 10 firms have won government approval to demonstrate hydrogen's effectiveness and safety in various contexts.

Setting up more projects would boost the confidence of the city’s hydrogen stakeholders and allow the industry to achieve the scale it needs to drive down costs, she said, adding that more government funding is also needed.

“We are very fortunate to see that the Chief Executive’s policy address this week has increased the new energy fund for the transport sector from HK$200 million [US$26 million] to HK$750 million,” she said. However, the amount is still “too little” compared with what is needed for development, she added.

“We hope the government can inject more funds into this field,” she said.

Hong Kong has a distinct advantage of being close to the mainland, where many companies have developed a wide range of cost-competitive green technologies that Hong Kong firms can adopt to scale up hydrogen production and use, said Secretary for Environment and Ecology Tse Chin-wan.

However, he said the scale and speed of hydrogen development in Hong Kong will depend on the cost-reduction trajectories of other forms of green energy. So the government needs to proceed cautiously on policies.

“The costs of other green and low-carbon technologies are also falling, which means it is uncertain which green energy will be more cost-competitive,” he said.

Hong Kong Total Energy Consumption.

Total energy consumption per capita was 1.6 toe in 2022. Per capita electricity consumption is about 6.1 MWh. Total energy consumption decreased by 6% in 2022 to 11.7 Mtoe, after remaining stable in 2021 and declining by 8.5% in 2020. Previously, it had been fluctuating around 14 Mtoe since 2007. Gas covers 33% of the country's total energy consumption, coal 31%, oil 26%, and electricity 9% (2022). Coal had the largest share of total energy consumption until 2019 (44% in 2019) and has been increasing since 2000 (from 31%). Zeljko Serdar, CCRES

Clean Energy Transition - Net Zero by 2050

China has the largest carbon market in the world and Hong Kong can help connect it globally by establishing an Asia-focused carbon standard and developing a futures market. As a major carbon emitter, the power sector plays a crucial role in realizing the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Although there has been a local expansion of wind and solar projects, this is limited due to the environment. It is possible that Hong Kong could create more opportunities for clean energy transition by buying energy from clean sources and supporting renewable energy businesses.  Over the last 7 days, the Renewable Energy industry has dropped 1.3%, driven by a pullback from China Power International Development of 3.6%. The industry has fallen 5.1% in the last year. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 18% per annum.

What are the most urgent challenges for the sector over the next three years?

1. Cost of Transition

High capital costs associated with clean energy transition are a challenge to the oil and gas industry in Asia, particularly among smaller and emerging markets. Even in developed economies such as South Korea, cost can be a challenge slowing the pace of change.

2. Ongoing demand for fossil fuels

There is an ongoing and – especially in the case of China for example – a growing demand for fossil fuels in Asia. It was unlikely that the majority of local businesses would be able to accommodate a fall in the use of oil and gas in the next few years.

3. Lack of renewables infrastructure

Infrastructure transformation poses challenges in dealing with legacy liabilities as well as significant investment in ensuring electricity grids can store and transmit electricity generated from renewable resources.

Governments around the world have set targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. As economies make the move towards sustainable development, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the backbone of the world economy, are adjusting their supply chain strategies to help them embark on the road to zero carbon with a measurable carbon footprint.

Burning fossil fuels to feed our energy systems accounts for 75% of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The transport and processing of oil and gas alone resulted in 5.1 billion tonnes of emissions in 2022, accounting for just under 15% of the total produced by the global energy sector.

Interestingly, in the year that the US goes to the polls to elect a new president, geopolitics could be a factor that potentially slows clean energy transition in the next few years. 

Asia accounts for a large part of this, with China alone acting as the largest producer and consumer of energy in the world. Although coal accounts for the greatest share of the total energy supply in Asia (48%), oil is second with 23% and natural gas 11.6%. In terms of oil refining, Asia accounts for 38% of the global share.

However, in addition to being a big producer and consumer of fossil fuels, Asia also generates a significant amount of electricity from renewable resources. In 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) calculated that 23.5% of the region’s electricity was generated by hydro (13.7%), wind (5.6%) and solar (4.2%). This compares to just 11.8% of electricity generation by oil and gas combined.

China is a key player in many clean energy supply chains and both Japan and Korea have devised plans for decarbonisation.

Of course, Asia is a large continent with different needs, strengths, and drivers across markets, and different perceptions of challenges and opportunities. For example, when we asked our underwriters whether geopolitical issues might impact the transition to clean energy in the local oil and gas industries, our specialists in China said “probably, yes”, whereas in Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and Korea the response was, “not so much”.

The oil and gas industry could not shift to clean energy in the short term due to high costs and supply issues. The fact is, it is hard to build a business case for consuming more expensive electric energy from renewables if cheaper oil and gas are on tap.

More than 80% of Taiwan's electricity came from fossil fuels in 2022, making the country’s official pledge to achieve Net Zero by 2050 a big challenge. While there is still significant demand for oil, natural gas, and coal, the industry is increasingly facing pressure from the growth of renewable energy sources, as well as concerns over climate change and environmental impacts, with many companies and governments investing in carbon capture and storage technologies, as well as exploring alternative sources of energy.

Geographical issues do influence which energy sources are most commonly used by different countries in the region. For example, Japan's primary energy source is oil, amounting to about 36% of the country’s overall energy fuel mix, followed by coal (25%) and natural gas (21%). There is a local high dependency on fossil fuels, but this is partly due to the suspension of nuclear power plants since the earthquake in 2011. Domestic demand for oil is getting weaker due to a decreasing population and the growth in alternative energy sources. Meantime, the greenhouse gas emission target is 46% compared to the 2013 level, revised from 26% in April 2021.

What are the greatest opportunities for the sector over the next three years?

1. Growing demand for sustainability

Consumer demand for environmental sustainability presents a good opportunity for long-term growth for industry players who invest in diversification.  What’s more fossil fuels are a finite resource, which means diversification into renewables and other income streams is vital for business sustainability.

2. Repositioning role as energy companies

Some large oil and gas companies are set to make a switch to energy companies that supply a diverse range of energy services, particularly electricity.

3. Improved brand image

Oil and gas companies that pivot towards clean energy transition may benefit from an improved brand image and may be more likely to attract public and private capital from investors, especially those seeking to promote and support greater environmental and social responsibility.