Showing posts with label Bat-SARS-Like coronavirus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bat-SARS-Like coronavirus. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Mechanical ventilation a life-or-death choice

In the weeks ahead, physicians may be asked to make decisions that they have never before had to face, and for which many of them will not be prepared. Though some people may denounce triage committees as “death panels,” in fact they would be just the opposite — their goal would be to save the most lives possible in a time of unprecedented crisis. Creation and use of triage committees, informed by experience in the current pandemic can help mitigate the enormous emotional, spiritual, and existential burden to which caregivers may be exposed.

Anticipating the need to allocate ventilators to the patients who are most likely to benefit, clinicians should proactively engage in discussions with patients and families regarding do-not-intubate orders for high-risk subgroups of patients before their health deteriorates. Once patients have already been placed on mechanical ventilation, decisions to withdraw it are especially fraught. Less than 50 years ago, physicians argued that withdrawing a ventilator was an act of killing, prohibited by both law and ethics. Today, withdrawal of ventilatory support is the most common proximate cause of death in ICU patients, and withdrawal of this support at the request of a patient or surrogate is considered an ethical and legal obligation. Withdrawal of a ventilator against the wishes of the patient or surrogate, however, is primarily done only in states and hospitals that permit physicians to unilaterally withdraw life support when treatment is determined to be futile.

Decisions to withdraw ventilators during a pandemic in order to make the resource available to another patient cannot be justified in either of these ways: it is not being done at the request of the patient or surrogate, nor can it be claimed that the treatment is futile. Even though the chances of survival may be low, in the absence of the pandemic the treatment would be continued. Whereas this type of rationing may not be unusual in countries that tragically have a chronic shortage of essential ICU care, it is unprecedented for most physicians who practice in well-resourced countries. Reports from Italy and US describe physicians “weeping in the hospital hallways because of the choices they were going to have to make.

From the Center for Bioethics (R.D.T., C.M.), the Department of Global Health and Social Medicine (R.D.T., C.M.), the Office of the Dean of the Faculty of Medicine (G.Q.D.), Harvard Medical School, and the Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care, and Pain Medicine, Boston Children’s Hospital (R.D.T.) — both in Boston.

The physicians, nurses, or respiratory therapists who are caring for the patient should not be required to carry out the process of withdrawing mechanical ventilation; they should be supported by a team that is willing to serve in this role and that has skills and expertise in palliative care and emotional support of patients and families. Pain and suffering at the end of life can be controlled, and these patients deserve the best that palliative care can provide.
The decision about initiating or terminating mechanical ventilation is often truly a life-or-death choice.
Zeljko Serdar, CCRES


References (5)

  1. 1.Ventilator stockpiling and availability in the US. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Health Security, February 14, 2020 (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/200214-VentilatorAvailability-factsheet.pdf. opens in new tab).
  2. 2.Italian Society of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (Società Italiana di Anestesia Analgesia Rianimazione e Terapia Intensiva [SIAARTI]). Clinical ethics recommendations for the allocation of intensive care treatments, in exceptional, resource-limited circumstances (http://bit.ly/2x5mZ6Q. opens in new tab).
  3. 3.Kliff SSatariano ASilver-Greenberg JKulish N. There aren’t enough ventilators to cope with the coronavirus. New York Times. March 18, 2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/business/coronavirus-ventilator-shortage.html. opens in new tab).
  4. 4.Ventilator allocation guidelines. Albany: New York State Task Force on Life and the Law, New York State Department of Health, November 2015 (https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf. opens in new tab).
  5. 5.Ferraresi M. A coronavirus cautionary tale from Italy: don’t do what we did. Boston Globe. March 13, 2020 (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/. opens in new tab).


Thursday, February 27, 2020

2019-nCoV warnings days before officials


First warnings of the deadly coronavirus didn’t come from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the World Health Organization. They came from a robot in Canada.  
Da se radi o epidemiji coronavirusa, umjetna inteligencija kanadskog startupa BlueDot je ustanovila još krajem prosinca prošle godine i poslala "alert" svojim klijentima - uglavnom poslovnim ljudima koji putuju u Kinu, koji su odmah počeli poduzimati mjere zaštite i tako pomogli smanjiti razmjere i brzinu širenja virusa na Zapad.


Tada su bila registrirana samo četiri oboljela od "neobične upale pluća", sva četiri radnika tržnice živim životnjama u Wuhanu. Ipak, tim liječnika, veterinara, epidemiologa, statističara i software developera je napravio takav AI kojem je to bilo dovoljno da prepozna kako se radi o pojavi koja ima potencijal da "eksplodira". Naime, uz službene medicinske podatke, AI Blue Dota je analizirao i profesionalne forume, i vijesti iz medija - o tome da li se netko negdje onesvijestio i slično.
BlueDot Insights sends near real-time infectious disease alerts based on what’s relevant to you.
Protect staff and populations from infectious diseases.
Reduce your risk of exposure to infectious diseases. Elevate the diagnostic acumen of frontline healthcare workers.
Prevent operational disruption.
Save time on infectious disease surveillance while gaining global visibility.
Stop an outbreak from spreading to the community.
Communicate crucial information more effectively during an outbreak. Reduce reputational risk and legal liability.
Da je svijet tada alarmiran - ta četiri oboljela bi bilo lako staviti u karantenu, kao i kupce njihovih proizvoda i ostale koji su s njima bili u dodiru, i virus bi danas vjerojatno bio potpuno pod kontrolom.
Na žalost, vlasti država se uglavnom ne pouzdaju u "neprovjerene" usluge malih, inovativnih kompanija, vec čekaju obavijest Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije (WHO) - koja je pomoću klasičnih birokratiziranih procedura, tek tri tjedna kasnije ustanovila da se radi o epidemiji.
First warnings of the deadly coronavirus didn’t come from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the World Health Organization. They came from a robot in Canada.
BlueDot, an AI-powered health monitoring platform, sent users an alert about the outbreak on Dec. 31. The CDC and WHO reported the news on Jan. 6 and Jan. 9, respectively.
The platform, run by a team of physicians and programmers, uses a sophisticated disease surveillance program to scour news in 65 languages, as well as airline data, to pinpoint issues and alert users to avoid certain areas, like Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus outbreak began.
“We help governments protect their citizens, hospitals protect their staff and patients and businesses protect their employees and customers,” BlueDot’s website reads.

The platform was created by Kamran Khan, the brand’s founder and chief executive officer. In a Wired report, he said after the AI sifts through data, using machine learning to sort out trends and other parallels, epidemiologists ensure that the conclusions and predictions are accurate before alerts are sent to users, government officials and other businesses.
It uses “language processing to train this engine to recognize whether this is an outbreak of anthrax in Mongolia or a reunion of the heavy metal band Anthrax,” he said. “We know that governments may not be relied upon to provide information in a timely fashion,” and “can pick up news, little murmurs or forums or blogs of indications of unusual events.”
To znači da je svijet alarmiran kad je oboljelih bilo već osamdeset puta više nego na dan kad je mali startup odaslao upozorenje svojim korisnicima. Usto, svaki od 312 oboljelih je imao kontakte s ljudima iz obiteljskog kruga, na poslu, u javnom prijevozu i na ulici - pa i sa strancima iz drugih zemalja.
Naime, broj oboljelih nije rastao linearno nego eksponencijalno - dakle dvostruko dulji period da se ustanovi epidemija - tri tjedna potrebna Blu Dotu naspram šest tjedana koliko je trebalo WHO-u -  značio je porast broja oboljelih za čak osamsto posto.
Kao i u slučaju katastrofe u Černobilu, o kojoj su komunističke vlasti šutjele a problem registrirao laboratorij s "demokratskog Zapada" u Švedskoj - i kinesko ministarstvo zdravstva je liječnicima naredilo da slučajeve oboljelih prijavljuju samo interno, sistemu.
Zapad je ovoga puta bio brži, pa je kanadski startup svoje klijente o epidemiji obavijestio dan prije nego su kineske vlasti zabranile informiranje javnosti i uhitile osam liječnika "jer su širili protuzakonite radnje izmišljanja i širenja glasina te uzurpiranja društvenog reda", o čemu je izvijestio Washington Post.
Jasno, širenje panike nije konstruktivno, ali kod brzoširećeg coronavirusa ipak je bilo krucijalno da se javnost informira što prije.
BlueDot je startup čiji tim od četrdeset ljudi ne izgleda impresivno u odnosu na golemu i skupu birokraciju ministarstava država i Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije, i iako nije imao puno klijenata, ali  ako su u početnoj fazi epidemije samo jednog korisnika svoje usluge potaknuli da promijeni ponašanje i tako se sačuva od zaraze, taj mali, jeftini startup je spasio velik broj ljudi. Da su ga vlasti poslušale odmah - danas epidemije možda ne bi niti bilo.

BlueDot Explorer is a cloud-based GIS platform integrating more than 100 diverse datasets, including global air travel and near real-time disease surveillance.
Perform higher quality risk assessments in less time.
Wield more than 100 datasets, including global surveillance and drivers of disease that have been curated, cleaned, and combined for you.
Communicate crucial information more effectively.
Share complex information through superior data visualization, to build a collective understanding of risk across geographies and sectors.
Respond with precision in an emergency.
When time is critical, know you're using the best evidence to make the best decisions.
Naravno, svjetski su se mediji raspisali o startup kanadskog Indijca dr Kamrana Khana, zainteresirani za puno jeftiniju i efikasniju uslugu detektiranja epidemija od onoga što nude birokracija i procedure Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije, pa je očekivano porastao interes i za druga rješenja globalne zdravstvene krize koja dolaze iz svijeta inovativnih startupa.
No, zbog nepredvidivog načina i velike brzine širenja coronavirusa - svijet se "zatvara", pa se tako otkazuju i  konferencije u raznim područjima, pa i na temu biotehnologije - dok istovremeno potreba za razmjenom znanja i iskustava i inovativnih pristupa problemu nikad nije bila veća.
Tako je naprimjer otkazana najveća azijska konferencija o zaraznim bolestima u Kuala Lumpuru u Maleziji te je prebačena za jesen, a sudeći prema raspoloženju ljudi koje pomalo zahvaća panika - mogle bi biti otkazane i druge najavljene medicinske i konferencije o biotehnologiji .
Ipak, početkom ovog tjedna je održana koferencija o zaraznim bolestima, farmaceutskoj mikrobiologiji i biotehnologiji u Berlinu, kao i konferencija za investitore Red Herring, i to upravo na temu coronavirusa - koja je u Jeruzalemu prošloga tjedna okupila 23 tisuće gostiju iz 183 zemlje. 
U ožujku je zakazana konferencija o europskom biotechu u Parizu, a početkom travnja farmaceustka konferencija Eye for Pharma u Barceloni. Tu su i konferencije o biotechu u Jeruzalemu u ožujku i Tel Avivu u travnju.
Nadajmo se da će se sva okupljanja održati, dapače da će se hitno organizirati i dodatna, jer unatoč strahu od zaraze i širenja virusa - stručnjaci iz državnih struktura i investitori bi upravo sada trebali intenzivno razmjenjivati iskustva i povezivati se s malim znanstvenim timovima koji su dovoljno fleksibilni da promptno odreagiraju na potrebe tržista vezano uz epidemiju coronavirusa, za razliku od velikih farmaceutskih i biotehnoloških kompanija - koje su zbog inercije velikih sistema spore i "otporne na inovaciju".
Bilo bi poželjno i da birokratizirane organizacije poput WHO-a i ministarstava zdravstva promijene stav prema malim startupima s kojima ne vole poslovati jer su nestabilni i "tko zna da li će postojati za godinu dana" - jer rješenje za obuzdavanje epidemije neće doci iz velikih kompanija, zbog već spomenute "otpornosti na inovaciju".
Kako su za regulaciju i izdavanje dozvola za lijekove i medicinske aparate nužne duge procedure registracije, koje znaju trajati godinama jer uključuju i kliničke studije, u situaciji epidemije virusa koji se ponaša nepredvidivo a brzo se širi najbolje je rješenje potražiti u području koje nije toliko regulirano, jer proizvodi ne predstavljaju rizik za živote ljudi i nemaju nuspojave, poput algoritama za detekciju i dijagnozu, ili  zaštitne odjeće za medicinsko osoblje i građane.
Osim investitora, poticaj za rad malih timova svakako bi bila veća spremnost političkih vlasti da surađuju s "malima", čija je financijska konstrukcija često jedva dovoljna da osigura rad za narednih par mjeseci. Sklapajući ugovore s njima pomogli bi znanstvenim timovima da budu opušteniji i bolje se posvete radu kad znaju da su ekonomski osigurani za naredno razdoblje.

Naprimjer, i europske bi zemlje mogle zatražiti uzorke zaštitnih maski od nano-vlakana, kakve je izraelski startup Sonovia poslao kineskim vlastima koje su odmah počele s testiranjima.
Naime, ako se pokaže da Sonovijina nano-vlakna, koja dokazano sprečavaju prodor bakterija, mogu spriječiti i prodor virusa, pa i corone do tijela osobe koju pokrivaju - ne bi bilo loše da su nadležni već povezani s tom kompanijom, jer će tada nastati neviđena potraznja za njihovim tekstilom i zaštitnim maskama.
Obećavajucim se čini i pamuk obogaćen bakrom s antibakterijskim i antiviralnim svojstvima jeruzalemskog Argaman technologies, originalno razvijen za zaštitu oboljelih od raka, a velika pošiljka njihovog tekstila je poslana u Hong Kong.

SONOVIA’S TEXTILE PROPERTIES
Our sonocavitation technology gives fabrics a highly durable layer of antimicrobial protection, which has been tested extensively against bacteria and fungi in laboratory and hospital settings. A large amount of academic evidence suggests that the metallic nanoparticles at the core of our technology could be an effective shield against the growing epidemic. Currently, we are working towards creating protective equipment by partnering with manufacturers across the globe, in hopes that we will be able to design effective, reusable, anti-viral gear.


Uz rizik izlaganja medicinskog osoblja mikrobima, u jeku velikih epidemija s velikih brojem oboljelih problem predstavlja i nedostatak medicinskog osoblja. U tom smislu obećava projekt umjetne inteligencije - "medicinske sestre superheroja" koji u telavivskoj bolnici Ichilov vodi Ahava Weiss-Meilik.
AI-supersestra moze predvidjeti da će se nekom pacijentu stanje pogoršati satima prije nego sto su to u stanju prepoznati liječnici i medicinske sestre, te predvidjeti da li će se pacijent vratiti u bolnicu nakon što je otpušten.
Pacijentima se na prsa pričvrsti mali senzor poput onoga za EEG, koji je bežičnom vezom povezan s centralnim sistemom. Istovremeno, kamere u bolničkim sobama prate ponašanje pacijenata. Sve te podatke procesuira AI u centralnom sistemu.
- Nema tog doktora, ma koliko god dobar on bio, koji bi tako brzo mogao pregledati sve te podatke i odmah uspostaviti dijagnozu, kaze Weiss-Meilik.
Direktor bolnice Ichilov Roni Gamzu kaze da je AI-supersestra budućnost medicine, a tim u bolničkom I-Medata Centeru  zapravo čini više manjih timova:  AnyVision specijalizira software za prepoznavanje lica, tijela i objekata sa slika te projekt snabdijeva kamerama, BioBeat je razvio maleni bežcni senzor za praćenje vitalnih znakova poput tlaka, pulsa, zasićenosti krvi kisikom, temperature i znojenja, Zebra Medical i Aidoc pomažu radiolozima da na rentgenima i CT-jevima brzo uoče problematična mjesta na pacijentu, dok je startap Agamon specijalizirao procesiranje govornog jezika kako bi iz povijesti bolesti koje su napisali liječnici i medicinske sestre mogli izvući relevantni podaci.
Razvoj umjetne inteligencije tzv. AI-supernurse je omogućilo i to što je zadnjih deset godina povijesti bolesti digitalizirano, a bolnica godišnje ima 400 tisuca hospitalizacija, 1,8 milijuna vanjskih pacijenata, 36 tisuća operacija i 220 tisuća posjeta hitnoj pomoći. Bez te količine podataka projekt ne bio bilo moguće razviti.

Zatim, startup Insilico Medical razvija AI koji bi istraživanje lijekova za pojedinu bolest s nekoliko godina trebao skratiti na nekoliko dana.
U nedjelju je sveučiliste Bar Ilan objavilo da bi tehnologija koju je razvio jedan njihov profesor mogla vrijeme dijagnoze s dva dana skratiti na 15 minuta, a iz kompanije Memed ciji ImmunoXpert - tehnologiju za ustanovljavanje radi li se o bakterijskoj ili virusnoj inflekciji već koriste Švicarska, Europska unija i Izrael - kažu da s kolegama iz cijelog svijeta surađuju na tome da razviju dijagnostiku koja bi bolest otkrila i prije nego se zaraženi osjeti bolesnim.

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Bubonic Plague 1620, Plague of 1720, Cholera of 1820, Spanish flu of 1920, Coronavirus of 2020



Every hundred years, there seems to be a great pandemic, Bubonic plague 1620,  plague 1720, cholera epidemic 1820 and Spanish flu 1920.

The pandemics mentioned above seem to follow the same pattern as the current viral epidemic.

But history has really repeated itself. Below, I will write a bit about the history of these pandemics:


The year 1620: 


Bubonic Plague 

The Black Death was an epidemic of bubonic plague, a disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis that circulates among wild rodents where they live in great numbers and density. 





The year 1720:


In 1720, there was the last large-scale bubonic plague pandemic, also called  the great plague of Marseille  . Records show that the bacteria killed around 100,000 people in Marseille.

It is assumed that the bacteria are spread by flies infected with this bacteria.




The year 1820:


The first records of a  cholera pandemic  took place in 1820, which took place in Asia, in the countries of Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. In 1820, more than 100,000 deaths were recorded in Asia due to this bacterium. The pandemic is said to have started with people who drank water from lakes contaminated with this bacteria.





The year 1920:


The  Spanish flu  occurred 100 years ago, at the time people were struggling with the H1N1 flu virus which had undergone a genetic mutation, which made it much more dangerous than the virus normal. This virus infected 500 million people and killed more than 100 million people in the world, this pandemic was the deadliest in history.





The year 2020:


It seems like history repeats itself every 100 years, is it just a coincidence?





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Friday, February 21, 2020

Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Was Predicted



A mother sends her son on a camping trip with a leader who has led this trip into the mountains 16 times before without mishap; that is until this time. Every single camper and leader and driver die with no explanation. As the grieving mother who is the protagonist begins to accept the fact that her son, Danny, is dead she starts getting vicious bully-like attacks from nowhere saying he is not dead, such as writing on chalk boards, words from printers and other various 'signs'. Along with her new friend, Elliot Stryker, Christina Evans sets out to find out what could have possibly happened on the day that her son 'died'.

A virus called Wuhan-400 causes outbreak … in a Dean Koontz thriller from 1981. How is it that some books appear to prophesy events?
The Eyes of Darkness features a Chinese military lab in Wuhan that creates a virus as a bioweapon; civilians soon become sick after accidentally contracting it
In fact, the one lab in China able to handle the deadliest viruses is in Wuhan and helped sequence the novel coronavirus the world is currently battling.

The Eyes of Darkness, a 1981 thriller by bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz, tells of a Chinese military lab that creates a virus as part of its biological weapons programme. The lab is located in Wuhan, which lends the virus its name, Wuhan-400. A chilling literary coincidence or a case of writer as unwitting prophet?
In The Eyes of Darkness, a grieving mother, Christina Evans, sets out to discover whether her son Danny died on a camping trip or if – as suspicious messages suggest – he is still alive. She eventually tracks him down to a military facility where he is being held after being accidentally contaminated with man-made microorganisms created at the research centre in Wuhan.
If that made the hair on the back of your neck stand up, read this passage from the book: “It was around that time that a Chinese scientist named Li Chen moved to the United States while carrying a floppy disk of data from China’s most important and dangerous new biological weapon of the past decade. They call it Wuhan-400 because it was developed in their RDNA laboratory just outside the city of Wuhan.”



In another strange coincidence, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which houses China’s only level four biosafety laboratory, the highest-level classification of labs that study the deadliest viruses, is just 32km from the epicentre of the current coronavirus outbreak. The opening of the maximum-security lab was covered in a 2017 story in the journal Nature, which warned of safety risks in a culture where hierarchy trumps an open culture.

Fringe conspiracy theories that the coronavirus involved in the current outbreak appears to be man-made and likely escaped from the Wuhan virology lab have been circulated, but have been widely debunked. In fact the lab was one of the first to sequence the coronavirus.
In Koontz’s thriller, the virus is considered the “perfect weapon” because it only affects humans and, since it cannot survive outside the human body for longer than a minute, it does not demand expensive decontamination once a population is wiped out, allowing the victors to roll in and claim a conquered territory.
It’s no exaggeration to call Koontz a prolific writer. His first book, Star Quest, was published in 1968 and he has been churning out suspense fiction at a phenomenal rate since with more than 80 novels and 74 works of short fiction under his belt. The 74-year-old, a devout Catholic, lives in California with his wife. But what are the odds of him so closely predicting the future?

Albert Wan, who runs the Bleak House Books store in San Po Kong, says Wuhan has historically been the site of numerous scientific research facilities, including ones dealing with microbiology and virology. “Smart, savvy writers like Koontz would have known all this and used this bit of factual information to craft a story that is both convincing and unsettling. Hence the Wuhan-400,” says Wan.
British writer Paul French, who specialises in books about China, says many of the elements around viruses in China relate back to the second world war, which may have been a factor in Koontz’s thinking.

“The Japanese definitely did do chemical weapons research in China, which we mostly associate with Unit 731 in Harbin and northern China. But they also stored chemical weapons in Wuhan – which Japan admitted,” says French.
Publisher Pete Spurrier, who runs Hong Kong publishing house Blacksmith Books, muses that for a fiction writer mapping out a thriller about a virus outbreak set in China, Wuhan is a good choice.
“It’s on the Yangtze River that goes east-west; it’s on the high-speed rail [line] that goes north-south; it’s right at the crossroads of transport networks in the centre of the country. Where better to start a fictional epidemic, or indeed a real one?” says Spurrier. (Spurrier works part-time as a subeditor for the Post.)



In bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz’s 1981 thriller The Eyes of Darkness, a virus to be used as a biological weapon is developed in Wuhan, China, but humans end up contracting it. Photo: ShutterstockIn bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz’s 1981 thriller The Eyes of Darkness, a virus to be used as a biological weapon is developed in Wuhan, China, but humans end up contracting it.
In bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz’s 1981 thriller The Eyes of Darkness, a virus to be used as a biological weapon is developed in Wuhan, China, but humans end up contracting it.
The Eyes of Darkness, a 1981 thriller by bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz, tells of a Chinese military lab that creates a virus as part of its biological weapons programme. The lab is located in Wuhan, which lends the virus its name, Wuhan-400. A chilling literary coincidence or a case of writer as unwitting prophet?
In The Eyes of Darkness, a grieving mother, Christina Evans, sets out to discover whether her son Danny died on a camping trip or if – as suspicious messages suggest – he is still alive. She eventually tracks him down to a military facility where he is being held after being accidentally contaminated with man-made microorganisms created at the research centre in Wuhan.
If that made the hair on the back of your neck stand up, read this passage from the book: “It was around that time that a Chinese scientist named Li Chen moved to the United States while carrying a floppy disk of data from China’s most important and dangerous new biological weapon of the past decade. They call it Wuhan-400 because it was developed in their RDNA laboratory just outside the city of Wuhan.”
In another strange coincidence, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which houses China’s only level four biosafety laboratory, the highest-level classification of labs that study the deadliest viruses, is just 32km from the epicentre of the current coronavirus outbreak. The opening of the maximum-security lab was covered in a 2017 story in the journal Nature, which warned of safety risks in a culture where hierarchy trumps an open culture.


Fringe conspiracy theories that the coronavirus involved in the current outbreak appears to be man-made and likely escaped from the Wuhan virology lab have been circulated, but have been widely debunked. In fact the lab was one of the first to sequence the coronavirus.
In Koontz’s thriller, the virus is considered the “perfect weapon” because it only affects humans and, since it cannot survive outside the human body for longer than a minute, it does not demand expensive decontamination once a population is wiped out, allowing the victors to roll in and claim a conquered territory.
It’s no exaggeration to call Koontz a prolific writer. His first book, Star Quest, was published in 1968 and he has been churning out suspense fiction at a phenomenal rate since with more than 80 novels and 74 works of short fiction under his belt. The 74-year-old, a devout Catholic, lives in California with his wife. But what are the odds of him so closely predicting the future?






Albert Wan, who runs the Bleak House Books store in San Po Kong, says Wuhan has historically been the site of numerous scientific research facilities, including ones dealing with microbiology and virology. “Smart, savvy writers like Koontz would have known all this and used this bit of factual information to craft a story that is both convincing and unsettling. Hence the Wuhan-400,” says Wan.
British writer Paul French, who specialises in books about China, says many of the elements around viruses in China relate back to the second world war, which may have been a factor in Koontz’s thinking.


“The Japanese definitely did do chemical weapons research in China, which we mostly associate with Unit 731 in Harbin and northern China. But they also stored chemical weapons in Wuhan – which Japan admitted,” says French.
Publisher Pete Spurrier, who runs Hong Kong publishing house Blacksmith Books, muses that for a fiction writer mapping out a thriller about a virus outbreak set in China, Wuhan is a good choice.
“It’s on the Yangtze River that goes east-west; it’s on the high-speed rail [line] that goes north-south; it’s right at the crossroads of transport networks in the centre of the country. Where better to start a fictional epidemic, or indeed a real one?” says Spurrier. (Spurrier works part-time as a subeditor for the Post.)
Albert Wan runs the Bleak House Books store in San Po Kong, Hong Kong.
Hong Kong crime author Chan Ho-kei believes that this kind of “fiction-prophecy” is not uncommon.
“If you look really hard, I bet you can spot prophecies for almost all events. It makes me think about the ‘infinite monkey’ theorem,” he says, referring to the theory that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type any given text.
“The probability is low, but not impossible.”

Chan points to the 1898 novella Futility, which told the story of a huge ocean liner that sank in the North Atlantic after striking an iceberg. Many uncanny similarities were noted between the fictional ship – called Titan – and the real-life passenger ship RMS Titanic, which sank 14 years later. Following the sinking of the Titanic, the book was reissued with some changes, particularly in the ship’s gross tonnage.
“Fiction writers always try to imagine what the reality would be, so it’s very likely to write something like a prediction. Of course, it’s bizarre when the details collide, but I think it’s just a matter of mathematics,” says Chan.
Many of Koontz’s books have been adapted for television or the big screen, but The Eyes of Darkness never achieved such glory. This bizarre coincidence will thrust it into the spotlight and may see sales of this otherwise forgotten thriller jump.

Amazon is currently offering it on Kindle for just US$1. Perhaps, like Futility, it will also be reissued with some updates to make it really echo the current outbreak.


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China wasn’t original villain in book ‘predicting’ coronavirus outbreak – it was Russia
Dean Koontz’s The Eyes of Darkness originally contained details of a man-made virus called Gorki-400 from the Russian city of Gorki
The change to Wuhan came when the book was released in hardback under Koontz’s own name in 1989 – at the end of the Cold War

The 1981 book by US thriller writer Dean Koontz that appeared to predict the coronavirus outbreak in China initially had the virus originating in Russia.
The book appears to have been rewritten after the collapse of the Soviet Union meant the country was no longer seen as a communist bogeyman.
Koontz’s The Eyes of Darkness made headlines in the past week after readers noted the story concerned a man-made virus called Wuhan-400 developed in a biological weapons lab in Wuhan – ground zero of the current coronavirus outbreak – and described as the “perfect weapon”.
“They call the stuff ‘Wuhan-400’ because it was developed at their RDNA labs outside the city of Wuhan, and it was the four-hundredth viable strain of man-made organisms created at that research centre,” Koontz writes in the book.
However, Wuhan wasn’t even originally mentioned in The Eyes of Darkness. The first edition of the book, written under Koontz’s pseudonym Leigh Nichols, concerns a virus called Gorki-400 that was created by the Russians and emerged from “the city of Gorki”.

The change to Wuhan came when the book was released in hardback under Koontz’s own name in 1989. The year of the book’s re-release is significant – 1989 marked the end of the Cold War. And with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country was no longer communist.
“Starting in 1986, relations between the US and the Soviet Union began improving,” says Jenny Smith, co-founder of indie bookshop Bleak House Books in Hong Kong and a student of Russian history. “Mikhail Gorbachev came in in 1985 and was very interested in making the Soviet Union a more open society and improving relations. By 1988, it is our friend and not our enemy.”

An American author pointing the fictional finger of blame at Russia would not have gone down well in that climate, so The Eyes of Darkness needed a new villain. There were only so many places with bio-weapons facilities – think France, Britain and Japan – and most, as far as the US was concerned, were the good guys.

“China is the only place that comes to my mind that would have had an active programme and it’s likely there was a deep suspicion [in the US] of China covering a lot of things in this period,” says Smith, who wrote her PhD on Soviet technology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States.
This was in the immediate aftermath of the 1989 student demonstrations and the bloody Tiananmen crackdown that followed. It was a period when there were rumours swirling about leaks and cover-ups at biological weapons facilities, says Smith, and the US would have been aware of the repression of these rumours.




The switch from Gorki-400 to Wuhan-400 in the book was a literal cut-and-paste and appears to reflect the shift in mentality after the Cold War.
“Everyone was thinking in terms of two great powers – America and the Soviet Union, the good guys and the bad guys. It’s easy to see how you might substitute one bad guy for another, Gorki for Wuhan,” says Smith.
It is not known whether Koontz himself requested this change or his publisher made it.

Leigh Nichols wasn’t the only pen name Dean Koontz wrote under in his early career. He also used David Axton, Deanna Dwyer and K.R. Dwyer.
“It’s not unusual to use a pen name when you are starting off in your career. To play it safe, you don’t want to be as exposed,” says Albert Wan, Smith’s husband and the co-founder of Bleak House Books. “When his books started to take off in popularity, he may well have decided to use real identity.”
As for the Gorki referenced in the book, it could be one of a number of Russian towns with that name. The largest, just south of Moscow, is home to 3,500 people today. Compare that with Wuhan, with its population today of more than 11 million – even in 1989, Wuhan’s population topped 3.3 million.
The revised edition of The Eyes of Darkness brought the book closer to possibility, but it’s still some way off what’s happening with Covid-19. Significantly, contracting the fictional Wuhan-400 is a certain death sentence, while only 2 per cent of Covid-19 cases are fatal.

“It might run as science fiction, but it’s not impossible as it has happened in the past and people would be aware of it,” Smith says. “Think of the cover-up over anthrax – a lot of these stories are stranger than real life.”
Meanwhile, readers are also pointing to a passage in a book by the late Sylvia Browne, an American author who claimed to be psychic, that predicted an international outbreak of a virus this year.
“Around 2020, a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments,” Browne wrote in the book End of Days. “Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it arrived, attack 10 years later, and then disappear completely.”

  1.  "Novel predicted Wuhan virus 40 years before Coronavirus outbreak. Internet is stumped". India Today. 2020-02-17. Retrieved 2020-02-18.
  2. ^ "Did a Chinese Novel Predict Coronavirus 40 Years Ago? 'Wuhan-400' Leaves Twitter Baffled". CNN News18, Delhi. 2020-02-17. Retrieved 2020-02-18.
  3. ^ "Wuhan 400: Novel predicted coronavirus 40 years ago, Internet stumped". GN Media, United Arab Emirates. 2020-02-18. Retrieved 2020-02-18.
  4. ^ Koontz, Dean (December 2, 2008). Afterword for The Eyes of Darkness. Berkley; Reissue edition. pp. 369–374ISBN 978-0425224861.
  5. ^ "Lee Rich Propping Four TV Features". varietyultimate.com: Variety. November 16, 1989. Retrieved June 30, 2014.

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